Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[snowstormcanuck]

Could be. Again I went through all the COOP records at the time and it came out that way. Maybe I need to revisit/make a new map.

lolz, I should have read the whole post. I had no idea you produced that Tim. The graphic is so professional I thought it was NOAA material. I'm sure you did a thorough job. As prolific as that storm was it's tough to accept that some areas in the spatial heart of the storm saw only 7-9".

[Chicago WX]

lolz, I should have read the whole post. I had no idea you produced that Tim. The graphic is so professional I thought it was NOAA material. I'm sure you did a thorough job. As prolific as that storm was it's tough to accept that some areas in the spatial heart of the storm saw only 7-9".

Professional it is not. But yes I remember thinking it looked a bit screwy when I finished. I'll look at the numbers again sometime soon to make sure.

[Trent]

Weird minima across south-central MI. Perhaps an error? There doesn't seem to be a 9-12" contour area around I-96 where at least intuitively there should be one bufferring the 7-9" zone from the 12-15" zone.

Nope. Not an error. There were definitely low amounts just north of Detroit around Flint and I-69. There was even a 5.5" total near Corunna in Mid-Michigan between Lansing and Flint.

Saginaw MBS reported about 13" I believe, but the southern part of the county had closer to 6"

I made this map a long time ago with the information that I had available then. I'm sure it's off in a few places, but you get the gist of it for Michigan.

[Snowstorms]

Top 5 snowstorms

1. January 2nd-3rd 1999 (obvious reasons)

2. GHD blizzard Feb 1st-2nd 2011 (even though it wasn't as great as predicted here it was still an amazing event)

3. Super Tuesday/My Birthday Snowstorm Feb 5th-7th 2008 (Most of Michigan gets slammed with a foot or more of snow, some locations with 18-20" around Mount Pleasant to Saginaw. The worst road conditions I have ever seen after a snowstorm and CMU is closed for the first time in many years for a snowstorm)

4. Thanksgiving Snowstorm Nov 24-25th 2004 (First time I ever drove in snow, had to drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit. Most areas on US127 corridor received 6-9")

5. Crazy Mesoscale banding Feb 20th-21st 2005 (Mount Pleasant got slammed with amazing mesoscale banding and lake enhancement off of Saginaw Bay ended up with 15")

I think this is a pretty good list

Hmm what about the March 2008 snowstorm? I got like 15-18" from that storm. The Feb 5th-7th storm was very epic with similar amounts to the March 2008 storm. Another epic storm that Winter was the December 2007 storm. I received about 16" with that storm and I remember it being a snow day atleast in my mind hahaha. The December 2008 Snowstorm was also epic and I recieved about 10" from that storm.

Jan 1999 featured many snowstorms and I remember staying home for like a week or so from school hahaha.

Hopefully its a Winter to remember snow and temperature wise. A 1917-1918 or 1964-65 repeat would be amazing.

[kab2791]

Great map for a detailed look. Makes sense because I remember receiving over a foot, while DTW reported 11-12". Looking at radar loops for the event, there did seem to be an area in SE MI with more persistent heavier bands of snow which generally matched with that map.

Nope. Not an error. There were definitely low amounts just north of Detroit around Flint and I-69. There was even a 5.5" total near Corunna in Mid-Michigan between Lansing and Flint.

Saginaw MBS reported about 13" I believe, but the southern part of the county had closer to 6"

I made this map a long time ago with the information that I had available then. I'm sure it's off in a few places, but you get the gist of it for Michigan.

[snowstormcanuck]

Nope. Not an error. There were definitely low amounts just north of Detroit around Flint and I-69. There was even a 5.5" total near Corunna in Mid-Michigan between Lansing and Flint.

Saginaw MBS reported about 13" I believe, but the southern part of the county had closer to 6"

I made this map a long time ago with the information that I had available then. I'm sure it's off in a few places, but you get the gist of it for Michigan.

Yeah, your map seems to corroborate Tim's map across the I-69 area. Too bad Jan 1999 was run of the mill for some.

[Harry]

Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/%7Eswetzel/winter/cases/2jan99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

Nice work.

Weird minima across south-central MI. Perhaps an error? There doesn't seem to be a 9-12" contour area around I-96 where at least intuitively there should be one bufferring the 7-9" zone from the 12-15" zone.

Problem with Jan 99 is there was missing data or some also added the lake enhanced/LES snowfall on the backside of the system/UL.

One example is Bloomingdale..

1998-12-30	35.0	5.0	0.14	4	
1998-12-31	21.0	9.0	0.08	2	
1999-01-01	20.0	10.0	0.15	6	
1999-01-02	17.0	7.0	0.07	2	
1999-01-03	22.0	15.0	0.69	10	
1999-01-04	22.0	11.0	0.35	12	
1999-01-05	15.0	-14.0	0.23	8	
1999-01-06	20.0	-10.0	0.08	2	
1999-01-07	20.0	9.0	0.18	6	

I have seen some use the grand total from the 2nd through 7th. Thus 38".. Have also heard 50" mentioned. Only way i can see how they did that was going back to Dec 30th.

PER NWS ( GRR ) in places like here there was lack of reporting. A few had reported at the start of storm but never reported again and thus whatever the final storm total was.Thus why i suspect the scrwewy totals out this way anyways.

Here is Gull Lake which is a few miles ( 5 miles or so ) away from BTL. Take note of last column. Also note QPF total.

1999-01-01	18.0	7.0	0	0	2
1999-01-02	18.0	6.0	0.48	0.3	6
1999-01-03	23.0	12.0	0.53	9.5	12
1999-01-04	18.0	5.0	0.32	9999	18

Here is Albion which is just east of here along i94.

1999-01-02	9999	9999	0.03	0.5	2
1999-01-03	9999	9999	1.02	11	13
1999-01-04	9999	9999	0.6	6.5	20

Hastings just north of here.

1999-01-02	16.0	7.0	0.02	0.2	
1999-01-03	22.0	7.0	0.95	8	
1999-01-04	26.0	10.0	0.24	9	
1999-01-05	16.0	-3.0	0.08	3	

Coldwater just south of here. QPF seems a bit high though.

1999-01-02	27.0	9.0	1.75	10	
1999-01-03	29.0	4.0	0.89	11	

That all suggests to me that around 17/20" was the storm total for here. Per GRR i was told that between the blizzard and the lake stuff the totals range between 2-4 feet ( for the whole GRR area ) except for a few spots like Bloomingdale and i think Grand Rapids and thus those just a few miles in from the lake( near/along 131 ) who got more. Forget where but the highest total i heard was 60".

[Harry]

Nope. Not an error. There were definitely low amounts just north of Detroit around Flint and I-69. There was even a 5.5" total near Corunna in Mid-Michigan between Lansing and Flint.

Saginaw MBS reported about 13" I believe, but the southern part of the county had closer to 6"

I made this map a long time ago with the information that I had available then. I'm sure it's off in a few places, but you get the gist of it for Michigan.

See my post above. Thus what i have and what one of the guys at GRR relayed to me.

[michsnowfreak]

Several favorites but the storm that sticks out for me was December 19. 2008. Detroit saw a sloppy mix but just north of 696 up to Saginaw saw 12-16. Had 15 imby as a band setup towards the end of the storm that dumped an extra 2 inches on top of the 13 we already achieved. Just when it looked like the storm was going to die down new bands formed. Was the storm that kept on giving. Like most big winter storms it occurred overnight into the afternoon.

Thats incorrect. Detroit did not see a sloppy mix on Dec 19, 2008. The storm was all snow except for about a 20 minute mix with freezing rain and sleet, along with dryslot, between 8-9am.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

I believe it was dryslot more than anything that killed us, because the storm hit furiously. In fact, 5.7" of snow fell here in the first 3 hours of the storm!!! The storm began around 4:30am and by 8am already 6" of new snow was on the ground (there had been about 4" of old snow, so the depth was already 10"). The last flakes fell around 2:30pm, so while the storm lasted 10 hours in total, basically 5.7" fell in the first 3 hours and 2.5" fell in the last 7 hours.

[Powerball]

Thats incorrect. Detroit did not see a sloppy mix on Dec 19, 2008. The storm was all snow except for about a 20 minute mix with freezing rain and sleet, along with dryslot, between 8-9am.

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

I believe it was dryslot more than anything that killed us, because the storm hit furiously. In fact, 5.7" of snow fell here in the first 3 hours of the storm!!! The storm began around 4:30am and by 8am already 6" of new snow was on the ground (there had been about 4" of old snow, so the depth was already 10"). The last flakes fell around 2:30pm, so while the storm lasted 10 hours in total, basically 5.7" fell in the first 3 hours and 2.5" fell in the last 7 hours.

Well at least up here the dry slot didn't officially take over until 11 AM. Though the dry slot was still showing itself, as the heavier snow became more convective and showery, it wasn't as widespread as it was just before the morning commute.

[michsnowfreak]

In preparation for winter and with all the talks of previous storms...here are some of my pics from those storms

JAN 3, 1999 digging out 12" snow

FEB 23, 2003 digging out 11.5" snow. my first experience with thundersnow the night before

DEC 23, 2004- playing in a drift following 8.5" storm

JAN 22, 2005- blizzard dropped 11" of powder

FEB 14, 2007- 8.5" of sugary drifty snow fell, temps below 10F. The LAF benchmark storm

DEC 16, 2007 - 9.8" of snow fell, nice storm for entire state of MI

MAR 5, 2008 - 10.3" of snow jackpotted my area, thundersnow 3 times, loudest thunder of 2008

DEC 19, 2008 - 8.2" of snow, 6" of which fell in 3 hours

FEB 2, 2011 - still saw 10" of snow over the 2 days from this legendary storm

FEB 20, 2011 - one of my fav storms ever. Forecast 1-3", got 10.2". INSANE lightning/thunder

8"+ STORMS IMBY SINCE 1999

01.) 12.0" - Jan 2/3, 1999

02.) 11.5" - Feb 22/23, 2003

03.) 11.0" - Jan 22, 2005

04.) 10.3" - Mar 4/5, 2008

05.) 10.2" - Feb 20/21, 2011

06.) 10.1" - Feb 1/2, 2011

07.) 9.8" - Dec 15/16, 2007

08.) 9.5" - Jan 30/31, 2002

09.) 8.5" - Dec 22/23, 2004

10.) 8.5" - Feb 13/14, 2007

11.) 8.3" - Mar 5/6, 1999

12.) 8.2" - Dec 19, 2008

13.) 8.1" - Jan 9/10, 2009

14.) 8.0" - Apr 23-25, 2005

15.) 8.0" - Feb 9/10, 2010

[TheSearsTower25]

I watched channel 12 last night and he said "we may get hard with the cold and snow this winter" Gave me the goosebumps! Hope we get creamed again like the blizzard in Feb in Chicago.

http://unofficialnet...er-parts-31096/

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

[iFred]

I watched channel 12 last night and he said "we may get hard with the cold and snow this winter" Gave me the goosebumps! Hope we get creamed again like the blizzard in Feb in Chicago.

http://unofficialnet...er-parts-31096/

This might be Seattle's time to shine!

[buckeye]

Jan '99 was a sharper cutter. The surface low tracked NNE through northwest Indiana and into western lower Michigan, but the very cold airmass in place combined with occlusion meant that the rain/snow line didn't get much past the MI/OH border.

Actually here in central Ohio it was all snow....until the very end when it briefly ended as some light sleet and freezing drizzle. I recall about 9" here in westerville. That arctic air in place was bully, especially when you consider how far west of us the low tracked.

[Hoosier]

Actually here in central Ohio it was all snow....until the very end when it briefly ended as some light sleet and freezing drizzle. I recall about 9" here in westerville. That arctic air in place was bully, especially when you consider how far west of us the low tracked.

When I was talking about the MI/OH border, I meant the northward extent of any mixing whatsoever.

[JoMo]

Heard that JB is going pretty bullish for this winter with near to above normal snowfall for most of the country. Early start to winter in mid-nov for upper midwest. Texas westward is pretty much above normal temps through the forecast. Above normal snowfall north of Texas and much above normal in the northeast and Pacific northwest.

[Thunder Road]

Heard that JB is going pretty bullish for this winter with near to above normal snowfall for most of the country. Early start to winter in mid-nov for upper midwest. Texas westward is pretty much above normal temps through the forecast. Above normal snowfall north of Texas and much above normal in the northeast and Pacific northwest.

Wow, what a sharp contrast between that and all of his other forecasts.

[Quixotic1]

JB must not know which way the wind blows. There's 25 million of us in Texas that need pandering to.

[KokomoWX]

La Niña, a periodic weather phenomenon in which the central Pacific Ocean around the equator cools by at least 1 degree below normal, appears set to once again bring severe winter weather to the Midwest, including Indiana, as it did last winter, associate state climatologist Ken Scheeringa said Tuesday.

Michael Koch, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in[url=http://www.indystar.com/article/20110928/LOCAL/109280321/We-might-getting-our-fill-Old-Man-Winter-again-year?odyssey=mod%7Cmostview#][/url] Indianapolis, said he also sees the La Niña pattern playing a major role in the forecast for the state again this winter, driving storm systems -- and above-normal precipitation -- farther north into Indiana.

Ref: http://www.indystar.com/article/20110928/LOCAL/109280321/We-might-getting-our-fill-Old-Man-Winter-again-year

[Chambana]

http://www.semp.us/publications/biot_reader.php?BiotID=637

Excellent read on the winter 1917-1918! Is anyone still using this as an analog if choice for this year?

What an amazing, brutal relentless winter! Chances of this happening are slim to none.

[Snowstorms]

I have made a page on my blog discussing about snowfall averages and such in different ENSO states going back to 1900.

Now this is only for Toronto but this same method can be applied to areas surrounding the Great Lakes region as well. It's in "cm" but I have a converter on my blog.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/p/snowfall-averages.html

I found that La Nina Winters followed by Neutral Winters then El Nino Winters are best preferred.

[hoosierwx]

FWIW

http://www.exactaweather.com/USA_Long_Range_Forecast.html

[snowstormcanuck]

I have made a page on my blog discussing about snowfall averages and such in different ENSO states going back to 1900.

Now this is only for Toronto but this same method can be applied to areas surrounding the Great Lakes region as well. It's in "cm" but I have a converter on my blog.

http://weatherintoro...l-averages.html

I found that La Nina Winters followed by Neutral Winters then El Nino Winters are best preferred.

Excellent resource! Thanks. No surprises here that the pecking order is Nina>Nada>Nino.

[wisconsinwx]

I'm reading alot of discussion about blocking on the Accuweather forums, and that doesn't sound really optimistic for the Great Lakes. Wasn't that what resulted in the slow start to the winter (snow) season last year?

[Hoosier]

I'm reading alot of discussion about blocking on the Accuweather forums, and that doesn't sound really optimistic for the Great Lakes. Wasn't that what resulted in the slow start to the winter (snow) season last year?

Really depends on how strong it is and how its positioned. Blocking isn't always a bad thing but we've seen it go nuts at times in the past couple years.

[AppsRunner]

Really depends on how strong it is and how its positioned. Blocking isn't always a bad thing but we've seen it go nuts at times in the past couple years.

It appears unlikely we see such strong blocking for 3 straight years. Probably will have a -AO, but I would be surprised to see it anywhere near 2010 values.

[jdrenken]

Really depends on how strong it is and how its positioned.

Bingo!

[wisconsinwx]

LOL at accuweather. Fantasies are best left unposted.

The Long range winter thread, which is the one I've been checking on a frequent basis, is dominated by East Coasters, but it's still nice to have a variety of sources to look at. The blocking last year seemed to be a major story last year until January at least, but I take it most are not worried about the blocking to be that pronounced this year.

[jdrenken]

LOL at accuweather. Fantasies are best left unposted.

If you only knew.

[Thundersnow12]

I'm reading alot of discussion about blocking on the Accuweather forums, and that doesn't sound really optimistic for the Great Lakes. Wasn't that what resulted in the slow start to the winter (snow) season last year?

lol