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Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread


Harry

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December 11-12, 2000 seems to be the forgotten storm. Amounts weren't exceptional (8") in Toronto due to several hours of ZR, but I believe there was a swath of 12-18" just north of me running back to around the thumb of MI. Also, on the morning of the 12th there were some impressive wind gusts (50-60 mph). Possibly the only time I recall the power going out during a snowstorm. Apparently there was also TSSN, which I slept right through. :(

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We were lucky. Just as lucky as in 07-08, when places just south of here had half of the snow that LAF saw. Hmm, maybe this isn't a winter wasteland after all...

I'd love to see another VD 2007 repeat. While I lived through the blizzards of the late 70's, I was just a dumb teenager not realizing how special those were.

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I stand corrected. Had forgotten about this one.

UGH.. I wish this place had such records for that far back. Gonna guess this area did very well with the March 1930 event atleast. Kalamazoo evidently picked up 16" from it.

BTW.. I also happened to notice something else and thus Dec 18/19th 1929 at the Hastings station just north of here? WTF was that? Total of 18" with 2" on the 18th and 16" falling on the 19th! Also had another 2" on the 20th. Peaked at others too. Albion to the east which is at the Jackson/Calhoun line ended up with 10". Kalamazoo to the west 12".. While Three Rivers to the sw of here/s of Kalamazoo got 18" as well. Does Chicago have anything for those dates?

The Dec 1929 storm was a massive blizzard in the region. Detroit had 13.8" and I have a copy of the newspaper that shows a 1920s era car buried in drifted snow on one of the streets of Detroit.

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Top 5 snowstorms

1. January 2nd-3rd 1999 (obvious reasons)

2. GHD blizzard Feb 1st-2nd 2011 (even though it wasn't as great as predicted here it was still an amazing event)

3. Super Tuesday/My Birthday Snowstorm Feb 5th-7th 2008 (Most of Michigan gets slammed with a foot or more of snow, some locations with 18-20" around Mount Pleasant to Saginaw. The worst road conditions I have ever seen after a snowstorm and CMU is closed for the first time in many years for a snowstorm)

4. Thanksgiving Snowstorm Nov 24-25th 2004 (First time I ever drove in snow, had to drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit. Most areas on US127 corridor received 6-9")

5. Crazy Mesoscale banding Feb 20th-21st 2005 (Mount Pleasant got slammed with amazing mesoscale banding and lake enhancement off of Saginaw Bay ended up with 15")

I think this is a pretty good list :P

The Feb 5-7, 2008 event dumped I believe 3-4" here, but it was rain to freezing rain which iced everything over, to greasy wet snow. So the scene was as picturesque as you can get, but the snow was not so deep. That was one of the last events that winter before our area turned from "screwzone" to "jackpot. The Nov 24/25, 2004 storm? Rain ending as 0.3" of snow. First measurable snow of the season but also metro-Detroit was the only spot in MI that didnt get solid snowcover. This screwjob was the beginning of what would be an amazing 80"+ winter, what kind of theme is this, all these "screwjobs" in what still end up being winters that feature 150-200% of normal snowfall imby. The Feb 20, 2005 storm dropped 6.4" of wet snow here.

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Several favorites but the storm that sticks out for me was December 19. 2008. Detroit saw a sloppy mix but just north of 696 up to Saginaw saw 12-16. Had 15 imby as a band setup towards the end of the storm that dumped an extra 2 inches on top of the 13 we already achieved. Just when it looked like the storm was going to die down new bands formed. Was the storm that kept on giving. Like most big winter storms it occurred overnight into the afternoon.

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BTW.. I also happened to notice something else and thus Dec 18/19th 1929 at the Hastings station just north of here? WTF was that? Total of 18" with 2" on the 18th and 16" falling on the 19th! Also had another 2" on the 20th. Peaked at others too. Albion to the east which is at the Jackson/Calhoun line ended up with 10". Kalamazoo to the west 12".. While Three Rivers to the sw of here/s of Kalamazoo got 18" as well. Does Chicago have anything for those dates?

Doh, I had forgotten about Dec 1929. That's supposedly the biggest snowstorm to hit the LAF area (20.5"). Here's the data from the West Lafayette COOP:

1929-12-18	39.0	15.0	1.02	14	14
1929-12-19	15.0	13.0	0.5	6.5	21
1929-12-20	13.0	5.0	0	0	20

As for Chicago, officially: December 17-19, 1929...14.8"

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December 11-12, 2000 seems to be the forgotten storm. Amounts weren't exceptional (8") in Toronto due to several hours of ZR, but I believe there was a swath of 12-18" just north of me running back to around the thumb of MI. Also, on the morning of the 12th there were some impressive wind gusts (50-60 mph). Possibly the only time I recall the power going out during a snowstorm. Apparently there was also TSSN, which I slept right through. :(

Very much under-rated. Blizzard warnings were issued for NE IL/NW IN with that one. May have not been the biggest snow producer ever, speaking for LOT's CWA, but it was a fun storm. And of course a great month for snow and cold.

I'd love to see another VD 2007 repeat. While I lived through the blizzards of the late 70's, I was just a dumb teenager not realizing how special those were.

Make that two of us. I pulled an all-nighter, slept for an hour or two in the morning and then got back up to witness one of LAF's best blizzards/snowstorms.

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Top Snowstorms I remember:

Jan. 2, 1999 (technically didn't remember but obviously a biggie)

Dec. 11, 2000 (snow day I believe)

Jan. 21-22, 2005 (long-lasting snowstorm with near blizzard conditions at times; family stayed overnight at a hotel in our own city)

Dec. 1, 2006 (another snow day; storm mostly hit SE areas near L Michigan)

Feb. 23-25, 2007 (hit more of the inland areas, though areas near the lake still got a foot or more between the two systems)

There were a few storms in Dec. 2007, including an ice storm, though none were blizzards per se

Feb. 6, 2008 (another big one, another snow day)

Dec. 18, 2008 (off for winter break, though a bit of adventure traveling to a Marquette bball game against a nobody opponent)

There was a lake effect snow event in March 2009, but I don't remember the date offhand.

Feb. 9, 2010 (another long-lasting moderate to heavy snowfall, totals averaged about a foot)

Dec. 11, 2010 (I'll include this one, considering blizzard conditions to the north and west, well over a foot in some areas in Central and Western Wisconsin)

Feb. 1-2, 2011 (No introduction needed)

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Several favorites but the storm that sticks out for me was December 19. 2008. Detroit saw a sloppy mix but just north of 696 up to Saginaw saw 12-16. Had 15 imby as a band setup towards the end of the storm that dumped an extra 2 inches on top of the 13 we already achieved. Just when it looked like the storm was going to die diwn new baxnds formed. Was the storm that kept on giving. Like most big winter storms it occurred overnight into the afternoon8

At least according to DTX's map for the December 19, 2008 even areas in the southern portions of the area didn't do TOO bad (6-10"). Mixing wasn't really a problem except for immediately along the border, rather dry slotting was. I had about 9-10".

Now I know the New Years Eve storm had tight banding, but Saginaw was also screwed (it was a SW/NE I-275/US-23 through M-59/I-69 special).

As for the February 6th, 2008, some of the lower amounts to the south was due to dry slotting and mixing, not really because of mesoscale banding (we had 2.5" per hour rates for 2 hours and thundersnow was reported near Windsor or Sarnia).

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December 11-12, 2000 seems to be the forgotten storm. Amounts weren't exceptional (8") in Toronto due to several hours of ZR, but I believe there was a swath of 12-18" just north of me running back to around the thumb of MI. Also, on the morning of the 12th there were some impressive wind gusts (50-60 mph). Possibly the only time I recall the power going out during a snowstorm. Apparently there was also TSSN, which I slept right through. :(

This storm was a classic. I think what was most impressive was the model accuracy days out. IIRC watches came out Saturday for the storm on Tuesday. There was a good 6 days of models not budging on track and showing consistent heavy snows. It performed exactly as forecasted.

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I'd love to see another VD 2007 repeat. While I lived through the blizzards of the late 70's, I was just a dumb teenager not realizing how special those were.

Yeah, I remember the hype during the week before. That was before I posted on any forum, I remembered my weather Radio in the background set for Findlay's county... predictions were a little high (at one point predicting 16"), but a complete and total shutdown for NWOH.

Top 5 would be:

1.) VD 2007

2.) Christmas '04. TOL was OK... 11" IMBY in BG.

3.) February 10th, 2010. After I managed 5-6" from Snowmaggedon, picked another 10" or so.

4.) January '05. Supposedly 12", more like 8" here.

5.) January 26-29, 2009- What a way to end an incredible month. Overlooked for the most part here... but 9" south and along Route 6.

Honorable Mention: Christmas '02, February '08, March '08, December '05, GHD '11

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The best apart about living in a LES zone is that the element of surprise is alive and well. You can still go to bed with no snow in the forecast and wake up to a foot (a la Feb 4, 2009).

Or take last December 8th. There was no snow in the forecast in the morning. I drove to work under partly sunny skies. At 9:30am a heavy lake band developed and dumped 13" of snow in downtown Cleveland by the 5 pm rush.

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It'd be a good trade for both sides. We'd get several ~24" type snowstorms. They'd get increased snow frequency, persistent snowcover, and colder temps. Total seasonal snowfall is a push (70-100").

The thing i remember most about that was DC/Baltimore had atleast 40-50 inches of snow depth they received in 7-14 days and it was wiped out just as quick 2 days later by a torch. Was a bummer if you were north of NYC. They received nothing to the block to the north.

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This storm was a classic. I think what was most impressive was the model accuracy days out. IIRC watches came out Saturday for the storm on Tuesday. There was a good 6 days of models not budging on track and showing consistent heavy snows. It performed exactly as forecasted.

That thing really nailed Albion/Lansing etc. Even almost a foot of snow here from that. Awesome week in this area. Too bad i was not here back then.

2000-12-11	32.0	19.0	0.71	6.5	8
2000-12-12	27.0	10.0	0.49	4.6	14
2000-12-13	20.0	-3.0	0.2	3.3	15
2000-12-14	30.0	15.0	0.09	2.7	15
2000-12-15	25.0	18.0	0.03	0.1	15
2000-12-16	39.0	24.0	0.1	0.5	11
2000-12-17	33.0	12.0	0.67	9.7	20

Awesome month overall with almost 55" for the month and thus the record holder for snowiest month. Jan 2009 holds 2nd place.

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OT but thinking about doing a good blog post of my top 5 or 6 snowstorms....anyone know where to find a /WV/sat loop and a map of snow totals for the MW/GL of the Jan 1999 blizzard? I can get the UA analysis and loop on the NARR site but thats all I got right now. any help is appreciated.

Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/%7Eswetzel/winter/cases/2jan99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

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Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/%7Eswetzel/winter/cases/2jan99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

Looks similar to GHD. With la Nina it seems just west of say detroit is a good spot to be for deformation snows. 2 more months!

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Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor...n99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

The New Years Day storm of '99 was classic. I lived in Metamora, IL at the time working for the post office in Bloomington. All roads out of Metamora were shut down for days and I couldn't get to Bloomington. The day after I did try the trip, but my G20 conversion van hit a drift so bad that my radiator wasn't too appreciative.

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Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor...n99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

thanks man nicely done, I found some snow amounts and Geneva was down for 13" i think it was, hmmm.

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I was going to say the same thing. No wonder MKX compared the two a few days prior to the event. I wonder how closely the two tracks mirrored each other.

Jan '99 was a sharper cutter. The surface low tracked NNE through northwest Indiana and into western lower Michigan, but the very cold airmass in place combined with occlusion meant that the rain/snow line didn't get much past the MI/OH border.

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Jan '99 was a sharper cutter. The surface low tracked NNE through northwest Indiana and into western lower Michigan, but the very cold airmass in place combined with occlusion meant that the rain/snow line didn't get much past the MI/OH border.

There was a decent amount of ZR here too... not much rain did fall... and totals still ended up around 8" or so.

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OT but thinking about doing a good blog post of my top 5 or 6 snowstorms....anyone know where to find a /WV/sat loop and a map of snow totals for the MW/GL of the Jan 1999 blizzard? I can get the UA analysis and loop on the NARR site but thats all I got right now. any help is appreciated.

Courtesy of Eric Stoner (who posts as Chinook here IIRC)

Radar, satellite, surface charts, UA:

Anything you could possibly want (and more)

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So how are things in general lining up as far as an active witner are concerned. I know JB tweeted recently his winter outlook hasn't changed much from back in May so is there anything of concern that might affect things or are things looking pretty solid? Be nice to see a winter with a little of everything. Pastelok, while no JB mentioned a flip? But I remember the winter of 08/09 (don't quote me) where a flip was andertised and it was nothing but wall to wall cold. Thanks.

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Here's a snowfall map of Jan 99: http://speedy.meteor...n99/snowUSA.gif

I made the map below last year. It's not my best effort, but it's based off the official sites and COOPs snow totals. Yes, MI looks a little strange, but that's the numbers I found from the sites up there. Feel free to use it.

Weird minima across south-central MI. Perhaps an error? There doesn't seem to be a 9-12" contour area around I-96 where at least intuitively there should be one bufferring the 7-9" zone from the 12-15" zone.

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Weird minima across south-central MI. Perhaps an error? There doesn't seem to be a 9-12" contour area around I-96 where at least intuitively there should be one bufferring the 7-9" zone from the 12-15" zone.

Could be. Again I went through all the COOP records at the time and it came out that way. Maybe I need to revisit/make a new map.

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