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Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread


Harry

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A few tidbits I gathered about the April 1886 storm:

Per Apr 7, 1886 Detroit Free Press and tidbits from NWS:

~Snow in the street ranged from 10-40" deep on Woodward Avenue, with drifts of 6-7 feet.

~Saws had to be used to remove the snow as shovels were useless, the snow was SO heavy and wet

~The snow was mostly all melted in a week, as sun and temps in the 40s were felt by Apr 7th and then 70s the next week ("gumshoes" the newspaper called it).

~Even the oldest inhabitant, who insisted winters of the 1850s-1870s saw storms we never see today (meaning 1880s)....had to agree this storm was something

~The Weather Bureau snow gague was "snowed full and practically useless" during the latter part of the storm (Im guessing some estimating went into things?)

BTW...interesting to note that you mention March 1930 storm in Chicago. March 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934 all saw major snowstorms in Detroit.

Cool tidbits. Always neat to read about pre-1900 weather events.

March 7-8, 1931 featured another big snowstorm for Chicago, 16.2". But nothing over 10" with the following 3.

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hmmm? What was the date of that? Biggest i could find for Dec 73 was 10.2" on Dec 19th/20 1973 for here. Sucks that it ended up raining on Christmas right after that event here. Nothing worse then Rain on Christmas. :thumbsdown:

Dec 19/20, 1973 would be the storm. Detroit had 11.2" though the Free Press headline said "15-inch snow record predicted". It was forecasted to be the biggest December snowstorm on record, but came in just short at just over 11". The record, obviously, only had to wait one more year.

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hmmm? What was the date of that? Biggest i could find for Dec 73 was 10.2" on Dec 19th/20 1973 for here. Sucks that it ended up raining on Christmas right after that event here. Nothing worse then Rain on Christmas. :thumbsdown:

Dec 19-20, 1973.

Yeah rain sucks on Christmas. Speaking of, one my favorite "surprise" or "really late favorable trending" snowstorms was December 24, 2002. A nice present indeed.

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Was that a lake band or something? The 2005 and 2011 instances here were supposed to be small systems dropping 1-3" in central OH and ended up dumping 2-3 times as much snow as any model forecast, and doing it so hundreds of miles north of where it was progged.

It was an event associated with a vort moving through the area.

LES was actually moving northward into WI/MI off of LM, something you don't see too often to this degree.

n0r_20091226_2015.png

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Cool tidbits. Always neat to read about pre-1900 weather events.

March 7-8, 1931 featured another big snowstorm for Chicago, 16.2". But nothing over 10" with the following 3.

The March storms here...

March 24/25, 1930: 6.0"

March 7/8, 1931: 11.1"

March 21/22, 1932: 7.5"

March 25, 1933: 6.0"

March 27/28, 1934: 9.8"

I just found it interesting that a decade with many mild winters had this string of march snowstorms. Aside from these 5 consecutive March snowstorms, the 1930s only saw 4 other 6"+ snowstorms (2 in Jan, 1 in Feb, 1 in Nov).

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The March storms here...

March 24/25, 1930: 6.0"

March 7/8, 1931: 11.1"

March 21/22, 1932: 7.5"

March 25, 1933: 6.0"

March 27/28, 1934: 9.8"

I just found it interesting that a decade with many mild winters had this string of march snowstorms. Aside from these 5 consecutive March snowstorms, the 1930s only saw 4 other 6"+ snowstorms (2 in Jan, 1 in Feb, 1 in Nov).

Midway COOP snow totals for the above storms...

March 24-25, 1930: 22.1"

March 7-8, 1931: 17.5"

March 21-22, 1932: 10.1"

March 24-25, 1933: 5.6"

March 27, 1934: 3.7"

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I've always thought that's one of the oddball (neat) records in the Midwest. To have your biggest snowstorm on record be in early April. And really it's not "close" when compared to #2 for Detroit. Of course for Chicago, March 25-26, 1930 (19.2") was king until Jan 1967 came along. It's currently 5th all time now.

What i love about it as well is that it means we can see a massive snow storm all the way into April!

Great point. I have seen so many storms with more than the 4.1" I saw Feb 5th in recent years, but none when the forecast was "partly sunny" until two hours before stormtime. The closest thing Ive seen to that was Jan 8, 2005 when I got 5.9" when the forecast started at "a 30% chance of snow" the night before, and "light snow likely up to an inch" as the storrm approached. A runner up would be Mar 23, 1997 when totally clear skies forecasted turned into 3" of snow.

New Years 2008 was even worse as we only had 1" of snowcover downriver in the storms wake (had 4" following the '67 storm I believe). However, everyones snow was wiped out with the torch just 5 days later, and then Feb/Mar 2008 was a snowy paradise for all of SE MI, particularly downriver, so sort of like karma. On the flip side, in 1967 the snowcover stayed but nothing fancy, just clipper type deals, followed in the storms wake. So for over a month following that storm, a drive from Detroit to Ann Arbor could see you going from about 6" snowpack to 20"+. That would be torture day in and day out.

Yeah 66-67 kept on rolling and dumping around here after the blizzard. Just 5 days later another storm rolled through dropping 7.3".. Last decent event was on April 23rd with 5.9" and the thing was winter got rocking in early Nov here with a event that dumped around a foot on Nov 2nd/3rd. Why again i would rank 66-67 higher then 08-09 despite 08-09 having over a foot more of snow on the season.

Was that a lake band or something? The 2005 and 2011 instances here were supposed to be small systems dropping 1-3" in central OH and ended up dumping 2-3 times as much snow as any model forecast, and doing it so hundreds of miles north of where it was progged.

Looks like LES per GRR map?

SnowMap20091226_1800.png

Total for here on the 26th/27th was 5" but another 1.5 fell on the 28th as well.

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It was an event associated with a vort moving through the area.

LES was actually moving northward into WI/MI off of LM, something you don't see too often to this degree.

n0r_20091226_2015.png

I stand corrected. Had forgotten about this one.

Midway COOP snow totals for the above storms...

March 24-25, 1930: 22.1"

March 7-8, 1931: 17.5"

March 21-22, 1932: 10.1"

March 24-25, 1933: 5.6"

March 27, 1934: 3.7"

UGH.. I wish this place had such records for that far back. Gonna guess this area did very well with the March 1930 event atleast. Kalamazoo evidently picked up 16" from it.

BTW.. I also happened to notice something else and thus Dec 18/19th 1929 at the Hastings station just north of here? WTF was that? Total of 18" with 2" on the 18th and 16" falling on the 19th! Also had another 2" on the 20th. Peaked at others too. Albion to the east which is at the Jackson/Calhoun line ended up with 10". Kalamazoo to the west 12".. While Three Rivers to the sw of here/s of Kalamazoo got 18" as well. Does Chicago have anything for those dates?

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new revised top 5 snowstorms for here

1. Jan 31-Feb 2nd 2011 (20.1")

2. Jan 1-3rd 1999 (13")

3. Dec 25-26th 2009 (12.2")

3. Feb 13-14th 2007 (12")

5. Jan 31-Feb 1st 2008 (11.5")

honorable mention goes to Jan 21-22nd 2005 (Clipper on steriods)

For me personally none of my favs have happened here. All were prior to moving here.

For here ( back to 04-05 )

GHD gets top honors. with 14"

2. March 21/22 2008 ( 13" ) .. Nothing like a Jan type ( Drifting/cold )snow storm in March.

3. Jan 9th/10th 2009 ( 13" ).. Epic week+ between LES and event with 19.4" total just between Jan 8th and the 10th!

4. Dec 9-11th 2009 (13.5" ) This was with that big plains storm that brought alot of lake enhanced snow. Thankfully the warm front never made it here.

5. Feb 8-9 2010 ( 12" ) This is the system that ended up dumping big time in the Mid Atlantic! One of the very few times i was in the jackpot.

Honorable mentions..

Jan 21-22 2005 aka Clipper on Roids. 12"

Oct 12/13 2006...6.3" Thus the rarity of it.

SnowMap20061012_0600.png

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Top 5 snowstorms

1. January 2nd-3rd 1999 (obvious reasons)

2. GHD blizzard Feb 1st-2nd 2011 (even though it wasn't as great as predicted here it was still an amazing event)

3. Super Tuesday/My Birthday Snowstorm Feb 5th-7th 2008 (Most of Michigan gets slammed with a foot or more of snow, some locations with 18-20" around Mount Pleasant to Saginaw. The worst road conditions I have ever seen after a snowstorm and CMU is closed for the first time in many years for a snowstorm)

4. Thanksgiving Snowstorm Nov 24-25th 2004 (First time I ever drove in snow, had to drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit. Most areas on US127 corridor received 6-9")

5. Crazy Mesoscale banding Feb 20th-21st 2005 (Mount Pleasant got slammed with amazing mesoscale banding and lake enhancement off of Saginaw Bay ended up with 15")

I think this is a pretty good list :P

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Top 5 snowstorms

1. January 2nd-3rd 1999 (obvious reasons)

2. GHD blizzard Feb 1st-2nd 2011 (even though it wasn't as great as predicted here it was still an amazing event)

3. Super Tuesday/My Birthday Snowstorm Feb 5th-7th 2008 (Most of Michigan gets slammed with a foot or more of snow, some locations with 18-20" around Mount Pleasant to Saginaw. The worst road conditions I have ever seen after a snowstorm and CMU is closed for the first time in many years for a snowstorm)

4. Thanksgiving Snowstorm Nov 24-25th 2004 (First time I ever drove in snow, had to drive from Mount Pleasant to Detroit. Most areas on US127 corridor received 6-9")

5. Crazy Mesoscale banding Feb 20th-21st 2005 (Mount Pleasant got slammed with amazing mesoscale banding and lake enhancement off of Saginaw Bay ended up with 15")

I think this is a pretty good list :P

Gimme Gimme

post-1245-0-35246000-1316670316.png

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I sort of disagree with this unless I'm taking the word bisect too literally.

Yeah, I know. We've had this conversation before.

I have a tough time calling a storm that clips the far SE corner of L Ontario a "cutter". I suppose I see your point. I guess my problem lies with the fact that I associated certain types of sensible weather with certain storm tracks. The type of wx scenario for mby I link with the term "cutter" is either snow/mix>rain, or all rain. In contrast, a storm that traverses the eastern 1/3 of Lk Ontario or something is all snow here. Plus, how did it get to Lk Ontario? Either ENE/NE through the OV (OV runner I'd call it) or N/NNE (virtually an Apps Runner).

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