Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Chicago WX]

Anyone know of what the totals were further sw in Jan 67 or 79?

Snow depth at the end of those storms. Best I can find at the moment...

1967: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1967_jan_28_snowdepth_contour.gif (pay little attention to northern MN/WI depths, i.e. not part of the storm)

1979: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1979_jan_14_snowdepth_contour.gif

Also notice how LAF got fooked with both storms...

Let's just talk about Jan 1999. Universally beloved.

[Harry]

I would still call 14" a big one. I realize you guys in W Michigan get a lot of lake-effect events, which makes a foot not sound like a lot, but I would consider anything over a foot a big storm, even if it was a prolonged high-end moderate snow. My caveat I mentioned before was just that, the one caveat to what otherwise was an impressive storm.

12+ LES events are not as common this far inland. Yes they have happened here but nothing like you see a little further west and or in the next county over to my west a few miles away. Usually in big snowevents this part of MI does very well though as you see by my other reply. GHD was just one of the rare exceptions. All of my big events ( 18+ ) i have seen was prior to moving here. Last such event was PD 2 in Ohio. Before that it was all east coast events.

I really enjoyed being out in the height of the storm when the winds and snow were ripping. Was not long lasting but it was very much enjoyed and i won't soon forget it. You should have stepped out for a bit.

[michsnowfreak]

I know this may come to the dismay of some but honestly? GHD was nothing really special. The lake helped with alot of the higher totals unlike say Jan 67 which had even higher totals ( more widespread and as windy etc ) well away from the lake. GHD was a decent storm but i would not put it up there with some of the greats.

Even i had to scratch my head on that one.

I know lol. Yes the GHD storm underperformed here, yet then we saw 4-6" of "partly sunny" just 3 days after the GHD storm...and then the infamous 10" snowstorm on Feb 20th when just 1-3" + ice was forecast. And nighttime, daytime, geez louise snow is snow is snow! I actually like nighttime snowstorms personally.

The persistent snowiness that we have seen here the last decade is like nothing we have ever seen before, historic storm or not. Its unreal that year after year we just seem to get clobbered with snow, and Im pinching myself that its really real lol. And now it looks like once again we may be in for yet ANOTHER snowy winter. Climo exists for a reason. When you see a winter with 150% of climo snowfall, its a really good winter. When you see 4 out of 6 winters have 150+% climo snowfall, wel, it isnt climo anymore. And thats exactly whats been happening in our region.

[Chicago WX]

IF there was NO SNOW at all in any part of the system i would not mind seeing such a event. Maybe it is me but the crazy sleet torms appear to becoming more common in recent years. Closest thing for me was with one of those ice storms back east in 93-94. Got about a half inch of sleet before it went to all freezing rain. Hoosier would have loved that ice event. I actually did not mind it but i had no power lines/poles or trees near my house either. I only lost power briefly unlike many others who were out for 2 weeks to over a month in some cases.

IF timing is good this could be a very big winter for alot of folks in this region. Amazes me to be saying that too considering the past number of winters but hey all the signals are there for it at the moment. Still wanna give it a few more weeks ( to watch a few other things ) before i go full bore with it and make a call.

I guess our sleet storm was contaminated by 3-4" of snow, but it was still something to see. I've never experienced sleet like that before...at least as I can recall. There was a big ice storm here in 1992...or 1991, not sure exactly, but old rdale used to tell stories about that one when he was at Purdue. There were a couple decent ice events as I was growing up in IL, but nothing noteworthy.

I'm looking forward to this winter. Of course I do, even if the prospects are dim. One thing I can assure is that we won't beat our total here of last season (49"). LAF just doesn't do that...

[Chicago WX]

Since we're on the subject of big snowstorms, here's my list of top storms here since '99.

1. Jan 31-Feb 2nd 2011

2. Jan 1-3rd 1999

3. Dec 25-26th 2009

4. Feb 18th 2000

5. Jan 31-Feb 1st 2008

6. Dec 1st 2006

7. Jan 9-10th 2009

I'll do LAF, but only since 2004 when I moved back here.

1) Feb 13-14, 2007

2) Dec 15-16, 2007

3) Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011 (of course not a true snowstorm here, but good enough...it was a beast)

4) Dec 8, 2005

5) Feb 6, 2007

6) Jan 31-Feb 1, 2008

7) the "mini storms/snows" of last winter. They were relatively frequent, modest...but effective. Probably not fair to rank it this way, but it's a season thing for me in an otherwise "no big snowstorm" winter for LAF.

[snowstormcanuck]

Since we're on the subject of big snowstorms, here's my list of top storms here since '99.

1. Jan 31-Feb 2nd 2011

2. Jan 1-3rd 1999

3. Dec 25-26th 2009

4. Feb 18th 2000

5. Jan 31-Feb 1st 2008

6. Dec 1st 2006

7. Jan 9-10th 2009

strictly snowfall totals or are you using various criteria?

I'd go:

1. Jan 2-3, 1999

2. Feb 6, 2008

3. Jan 26-27, 2004

for the top three. Then there are a whole bunch of 4s (A, B, C, D, etc).

Feb 18th, 2000 has the honor of being the biggest bust I've experienced. 8" forecasted, 1" realized. Luckily models have gotten a lot better since then. Busts have been getting progressively less impressive the last decade I've found.

[cyclone77]

The GHD blizzard was probably one of the most powerful displays of weather I've ever witnessed IMBY. Just brutal conditions from about 3pm until well after midnight. Temps were in the upper teens, 40-50mph+ winds, and snowfall rates exceeded 2"/hr for several hours in a row. Ended up with 17-18" which is a monumental achievement for the QC.

[michsnowfreak]

Snow depth at the end of those storms. Best I can find at the moment...

1967: http://greatlakes.sa...pth_contour.gif (pay little attention to northern MN/WI depths, i.e. not part of the storm)

1979: http://greatlakes.sa...pth_contour.gif

Also notice how LAF got fooked with both storms...

Those maps, ESPECIALLY the 1967 one, show what torture would really be. On Feb 6, 2011, 4 days after the GHD storm, dud or not, the snow depth in Detroit was 16" while in Chicago it was 17". Detroit saw numerous good snowstorms after the GHD storm, Chicago saw one. NOW...in 1967 and 1979 it was another story. In each case, Detroit saw continuous snowcover following the storm, but it was SO much less than just west. In 1967 it started at 4" post-storm and peaked at 8" in early Feb, while in 1979 it pretty much hovered at 5-7" for weeks following the storm....while each time a few counties to our west there was 2+ feet.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Since we're on the subject of big snowstorms, here's my list of top storms here since '99.

1. Jan 31-Feb 2nd 2011

2. Jan 1-3rd 1999

3. Dec 25-26th 2009

4. Feb 18th 2000

5. Jan 31-Feb 1st 2008

6. Dec 1st 2006

7. Jan 9-10th 2009

As far as surprise storms, nothing will ever top that for me..

Waking up to 5 inches of snow and getting 12 total after being forecast for an inch or less the night before.

[Harry]

Snow depth at the end of those storms. Best I can find at the moment...

1967: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1967_jan_28_snowdepth_contour.gif (pay little attention to northern MN/WI depths, i.e. not part of the storm)

1979: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1979_jan_14_snowdepth_contour.gif

Also notice how LAF got fooked with both storms...

Ahhhh.. So Jan 67 just happened to peak at it passed through here? Snow depth here per Utah peaked at 21 after Jan 79 while it peaked at 26" after Jan 67. Ofcourse there was nothing on the ground either before 67 arrived. Remember we had that massive torch and severe wx event right before the blizzard hit. Jan 78 owns this record ( i think? ) with a peak depth of 31" right after the blizzard. Ofcourse that may be off because that blizzard had the massive drifts etc. There had already been 7 on the ground when it arrived and dumped that 25" on top of it. I REALLY WISH someone from around this area had some pics of that.

So i guess the only storm we share is Jan 78?

[Chicago Storm]

strictly snowfall totals or are you using various criteria?

Strictly based off of snowfall totals.

Though if other criteria was used, they would still probably be in that order.

[Stevo6899]

The NAM showed hope because it was dead wrong and was being influenced significantly by sub-grid scale feedback associated with grossly overcooked convection.

lol I know but I was being a weenie and hoping you were wrong and the NAM was right. You and several people were calling for a stronger NW solution well before it made its way north out of texas. If i recall correctly the RGEM nailed that storm and was on a roll for awhile.

[michsnowfreak]

strictly snowfall totals or are you using various criteria?

I'd go:

1. Jan 2-3, 1999

2. Feb 6, 2008

3. Jan 26-27, 2004

for the top three. Then there are a whole bunch of 4s (A, B, C, D, etc).

Feb 18th, 2000 has the honor of being the biggest bust I've experienced. 8" forecasted, 1" realized. Luckily models have gotten a lot better since then. Busts have been getting progressively less impressive the last decade I've found.

For me since 1999....(not going just by snowfall accum).

1.) Jan 2-3, 1999 (12")

2.) Feb 20-21, 2011 (10.2")

3.) Jan 22, 2005 (11")

4.) Mar 4/5, 2008 (10.3")

5.) Feb 22/23, 2003 (11.5")

The conditions experienced from about 5-8pm on Feb 20, 2011 were unreal. Blinding snow with continuous 0.06 mile visib and VIVID lightning, LOUD thunder. And lets not forget we were digging out of over 10" of snow when 1-3" was forecast as the storm began. I was THIS close to putting it as a tie with 1999. The 2005 storm was cool because it was really like a blizzard. And once again, have to give props to the amazing thundersnow display in the Mar 2008 storm (that had been by a mile my top thundersnow experience until Feb 2011 storm). 3 out of my top 5 storms were ones that clobbered eastern MI and were just moderately good snowstorms for other areas nearby. That seems to be the case around here. Then the big, widespread, "popular" storms seem to do so-so here.

[Chicago WX]

Ahhhh.. So Jan 67 just happened to peak at it passed through here? Snow depth here per Utah peaked at 21 after Jan 79 while it peaked at 26" after Jan 67. Ofcourse there was nothing on the ground either before 67 arrived. Remember we had that massive torch and severe wx event right before the blizzard hit. Jan 78 owns this record ( i think? ) with a peak depth of 31" right after the blizzard. Ofcourse that may be off because that blizzard had the massive drifts etc. There had already been 7 on the ground when it arrived and dumped that 25" on top of it. I REALLY WISH someone from around this area had some pics of that.

So i guess the only storm we share is Jan 78?

Yeah 67 had nothing on the ground because of the preceding torch/tornado/severe weather outbreak. Which really has to be one of the most impressive weather weeks ever in the Midwest...at least with respect to having two distinct seasons/big weather events in a short amount of time.

As for LAF and BTL, yeah I believe Jan 78 was are only shared "big/historic" snowstorm. Though LAF was on the western fringes and only had 14-15"...depending on where you look. Blizzard conditions of course were experienced for both locales. How did BTL fare with Jan 99?

[Harry]

For me since 1999....(not going just by snowfall accum).

1.) Jan 2-3, 1999 (12")

2.) Feb 20-21, 2011 (10.2")

3.) Jan 22, 2005 (11")

4.) Mar 4/5, 2008 (10.3")

5.) Feb 22/23, 2003 (11.5")

The conditions experienced from about 5-8pm on Feb 20, 2011 were unreal. Blinding snow with continuous 0.06 mile visib and VIVID lightning, LOUD thunder. And lets not forget we were digging out of over 10" of snow when 1-3" was forecast as the storm began. I was THIS close to putting it as a tie with 1999. The 2005 storm was cool because it was really like a blizzard. And once again, have to give props to the amazing thundersnow display in the Mar 2008 storm (that had been by a mile my top thundersnow experience until Feb 2011 storm). 3 out of my top 5 storms were ones that clobbered eastern MI and were just moderately good snowstorms for other areas nearby. That seems to be the case around here. Then the big, widespread, "popular" storms seem to do so-so here.

I often wonder how other areas did with say Dec 74 which was pretty massive in Detroit or the biggie that dropped 2 feet in Detroit in the 1800s? I know for here that the Dec 74 event was nothing special with only 6" compared to the 19" or whatever it was in Detroit. Perhaps the LAF guys did better with it? Ofcourse there is nothing ( to my knowledge ) that is known for that other event that buried Detroit.

[Stevo6899]

For me since 1999....(not going just by snowfall accum).

1.) Jan 2-3, 1999 (12")

2.) Feb 20-21, 2011 (10.2")

3.) Jan 22, 2005 (11")

4.) Mar 4/5, 2008 (10.3")

5.) Feb 22/23, 2003 (11.5")

The conditions experienced from about 5-8pm on Feb 20, 2011 were unreal. Blinding snow with continuous 0.06 mile visib and VIVID lightning, LOUD thunder. And lets not forget we were digging out of over 10" of snow when 1-3" was forecast as the storm began. I was THIS close to putting it as a tie with 1999. The 2005 storm was cool because it was really like a blizzard. And once again, have to give props to the amazing thundersnow display in the Mar 2008 storm (that had been by a mile my top thundersnow experience until Feb 2011 storm). 3 out of my top 5 storms were ones that clobbered eastern MI and were just moderately good snowstorms for other areas nearby. That seems to be the case around here. Then the big, widespread, "popular" storms seem to do so-so here.

Gotta sneak in that feb 5th storm not for the totals, but for the mere fact that party cloudy skies were forecasted a day before. Also that map of the 1967 snow depth looked alot like the new years storm a few years ago.

[Chicago WX]

I often wonder how other areas did with say Dec 74 which was pretty massive in Detroit or the biggie that dropped 2 feet in Detroit in the 1800s? I know for here that the Dec 74 event was nothing special with only 6" compared to the 19" or whatever it was in Detroit. Perhaps the LAF guys did better with it? Ofcourse there is nothing ( to my knowledge ) that is known for that other event that buried Detroit.

Do you mean Dec 1973? As far as I can tell, it was the biggest snowstorm, 1901 to present, to hit LAF (19").

EDIT: Ah I see, December 1-2, 1974...eh nothing special here.

[michsnowfreak]

I often wonder how other areas did with say Dec 74 which was pretty massive in Detroit or the biggie that dropped 2 feet in Detroit in the 1800s? I know for here that the Dec 74 event was nothing special with only 6" compared to the 19" or whatever it was in Detroit. Perhaps the LAF guys did better with it? Ofcourse there is nothing ( to my knowledge ) that is known for that other event that buried Detroit.

I know Toledo had a little over 9" with the April 1886 storm. Id have to pull out my old copy of the Detroit Free Press, but i believe Battle Creek got very little snow and the northern tip of the thumb didnt see a flake. Plus by the detailed descriptions in the newspaper (unless it is THOSE that were somewhat exaggerated), im led to believe that this storm, in the VERY early years of official record keeping, was lowballed with its 24.5" total. As for the 1974 storm, I know that 18-21" was a very common total based on coop reports in SE MI. Those are merely the two extreme examples of what is a theme. We do GREAT when others do NOT, and vice versa lol.

[Harry]

Yeah 67 had nothing on the ground because of the preceding torch/tornado/severe weather outbreak. Which really has to be one of the most impressive weather weeks ever in the Midwest...at least with respect to having two distinct seasons/big weather events in a short amount of time.

As for LAF and BTL, yeah I believe Jan 78 was are only shared "big/historic" snowstorm. Though LAF was on the western fringes and only had 14-15"...depending on where you look. Blizzard conditions of course were experienced for both locales. How did BTL fare with Jan 99?

The data for here is all fooked up but it was somewhere in the 18-24 range BUT The lake helped out a bit on the backside too. I think the storm itself dropped like 15"? A few places just west of here i believe ended up with close to 50" between the storm and the LES behind it. Keep in mind if i recall correctly the UL came across MI and thus was largely responsible for that epic LES event. Ofcourse some may wanna call it lake enhanced.

Either way we need a storm moving due north it seems which i believe both Jan 78 and 99 did.

Oh i would just about kill to see a repeat of Jan 67. To go from a historic torch to that kind of severe outbreak and followed by that kind of blizzard is beyond insane. Every weenies dream i would think. Probably nothing that comes close to that for these parts anyways. Probably something more common in the Plains. One of the guys from that region can comment if they wish.

[Chicago WX]

I know Toledo had a little over 9" with the April 1886 storm. Id have to pull out my old copy of the Detroit Free Press, but i believe Battle Creek got very little snow and the northern tip of the thumb didnt see a flake. Plus by the detailed descriptions in the newspaper (unless it is THOSE that were somewhat exaggerated), im led to believe that this storm, in the VERY early years of official record keeping, was lowballed with its 24.5" total. As for the 1974 storm, I know that 18-21" was a very common total based on coop reports in SE MI. Those are merely the two extreme examples of what is a theme. We do GREAT when others do NOT, and vice versa lol.

I've always thought that's one of the oddball (neat) records in the Midwest. To have your biggest snowstorm on record be in early April. And really it's not "close" when compared to #2 for Detroit. Of course for Chicago, March 25-26, 1930 (19.2") was king until Jan 1967 came along. It's currently 5th all time now.

[michsnowfreak]

Gotta sneak in that feb 5th storm not for the totals, but for the mere fact that party cloudy skies were forecasted a day before. Also that map of the 1967 snow depth looked alot like the new years storm a few years ago.

Great point. I have seen so many storms with more than the 4.1" I saw Feb 5th in recent years, but none when the forecast was "partly sunny" until two hours before stormtime. The closest thing Ive seen to that was Jan 8, 2005 when I got 5.9" when the forecast started at "a 30% chance of snow" the night before, and "light snow likely up to an inch" as the storrm approached. A runner up would be Mar 23, 1997 when totally clear skies forecasted turned into 3" of snow.

New Years 2008 was even worse as we only had 1" of snowcover downriver in the storms wake (had 4" following the '67 storm I believe). However, everyones snow was wiped out with the torch just 5 days later, and then Feb/Mar 2008 was a snowy paradise for all of SE MI, particularly downriver, so sort of like karma. On the flip side, in 1967 the snowcover stayed but nothing fancy, just clipper type deals, followed in the storms wake. So for over a month following that storm, a drive from Detroit to Ann Arbor could see you going from about 6" snowpack to 20"+. That would be torture day in and day out.

[Chicago WX]

The data for here is all fooked up but it was somewhere in the 18-24 range BUT The lake helped out a bit on the backside too. I think the storm itself dropped like 15"? A few places just west of here i believe ended up with close to 50" between the storm and the LES behind it. Keep in mind if i recall correctly the UL came across MI and thus was largely responsible for that epic LES event. Ofcourse some may wanna call it lake enhanced.

Either way we need a storm moving due north it seems which i believe both Jan 78 and 99 did.

Oh i would just about kill to see a repeat of Jan 67. To go from a historic torch to that kind of severe outbreak and followed by that kind of blizzard is beyond insane. Every weenies dream i would think. Probably nothing that comes close to that for these parts anyways. Probably something more common in the Plains. One of the guys from that region can comment if they wish.

Yeah Jan 78 and 99 repeats would be both winners for both of us then.

[Hoosier]

Yeah. "cutter" is shorthand for "lakes cutter" (the key word being "Lakes"). A storm that doesn't bisect the Great Lakes can't be a cutter imho.

I sort of disagree with this unless I'm taking the word bisect too literally.

[michsnowfreak]

I've always thought that's one of the oddball (neat) records in the Midwest. To have your biggest snowstorm on record be in early April. And really it's not "close" when compared to #2 for Detroit. Of course for Chicago, March 25-26, 1930 (19.2") was king until Jan 1967 came along.

A few tidbits I gathered about the April 1886 storm:

Per Apr 7, 1886 Detroit Free Press and tidbits from NWS:

~Snow in the street ranged from 10-40" deep on Woodward Avenue, with drifts of 6-7 feet.

~Saws had to be used to remove the snow as shovels were useless, the snow was SO heavy and wet

~The snow was mostly all melted in a week, as sun and temps in the 40s were felt by Apr 7th and then 70s the next week ("gumshoes" the newspaper called it).

~Even the oldest inhabitant, who insisted winters of the 1850s-1870s saw storms we never see today (meaning 1880s)....had to agree this storm was something

~The Weather Bureau snow gague was "snowed full and practically useless" during the latter part of the storm (Im guessing some estimating went into things?)

BTW...interesting to note that you mention March 1930 storm in Chicago. March 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934 all saw major snowstorms in Detroit.

[michsnowfreak]

Can't beat the Dec 25-26, 2009 Chi-Town surprise 12" storm..

Was that a lake band or something? The 2005 and 2011 instances here were supposed to be small systems dropping 1-3" in central OH and ended up dumping 2-3 times as much snow as any model forecast, and doing it so hundreds of miles north of where it was progged.

[Thundersnow12]

My top 3 that I can remember, would have to go back and look at some stats for the other good ones around here.

1. Jan 31-Feb 2nd 2011

2. Dec 25-26th 2009

3. Jan 31-Feb 1st 2008

[Hoosier]

lol I know but I was being a weenie and hoping you were wrong and the NAM was right. You and several people were calling for a stronger NW solution well before it made its way north out of texas. If i recall correctly the RGEM nailed that storm and was on a roll for awhile.

RGEM went a bit overboard but was certainly in the stronger/northwest camp.

[Harry]

Do you mean Dec 1973? As far as I can tell, it was the biggest snowstorm, 1901 to present, to hit LAF (19").

EDIT: Ah I see, December 1-2, 1974...eh nothing special here.

hmmm? What was the date of that? Biggest i could find for Dec 73 was 10.2" on Dec 19th/20 1973 for here. Sucks that it ended up raining on Christmas right after that event here. Nothing worse then Rain on Christmas.

[Hoosier]

Was that a lake band or something? The 2005 and 2011 instances here were supposed to be small systems dropping 1-3" in central OH and ended up dumping 2-3 times as much snow as any model forecast, and doing it so hundreds of miles north of where it was progged.

12/26/09 in IL was mesoscale banding with no lake contribution

[Thundersnow12]

As far as surprise storms, nothing will ever top that for me..

.

That event was awesome to say the least, drove my grandparents home to oak brook after xmas dinner in the snow, I-88 was pretty snow covered, had an inch of snow or so on the ground when i went to bed, woke up to SN and it never stopped till late afternoon. ended up with 12.2" and only expected i think it was 2-4".