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Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread


Harry

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A cutter is any storm that cuts Northward West of the Appalachians. I don't think that many consider storms on the coastal plains, cutters. Those are inland runners to most people.

Yeah. "cutter" is shorthand for "lakes cutter" (the key word being "Lakes"). A storm that doesn't bisect the Great Lakes can't be a cutter imho.

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Don't think I can look any of the GHD blizzard pics anymore. Can't help but think of MBY and the fact that I knew it would have the killer NW trend, despite the NAM showing some hope. When we were in the dry slot and got sleet for an hour while seeing illinois sit in the deformation band was as bad as watching my g/f make out with a dude you couldn't stand in high school.

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Don't think I can look any of the GHD blizzard pics anymore. Can't help but think of MBY and the fact that I knew it would have the killer NW trend, despite the NAM showing some hope. When we were in the dry slot and got sleet for an hour while seeing illinois sit in the deformation band was as bad as watching my g/f make out with a dude you couldn't stand in high school.

Not here to complain, as we've been really lucky IMBY in terms of snowstorms the last 5 years (I checked a day or two ago and we've had 25 WS warnings in the last 5 years), but the one qualm I have about the Groundhog Day storm was all the snow occurred in darkness, so not much ability to get very good video. It may have produced very well here, but I decided not to go out in it, and therefore it didn't really feel like that great a storm (besides the momentary TSnow I experienced). I guess I just have such high expectations.

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Not here to complain, as we've been really lucky IMBY in terms of snowstorms the last 5 years (I checked a day or two ago and we've had 25 WS warnings in the last 5 years), but the one qualm I have about the Groundhog Day storm was all the snow occurred in darkness, so not much ability to get very good video. It may have produced very well here, but I decided not to go out in it, and therefore it didn't really feel like that great a storm (besides the momentary TSnow I experienced). I guess I just have such high expectations.

For real? :facepalm:

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Yeah, this isn't a good storm...

feb1_sat.jpg

Ok, ok, I didn't mean it literally, I'm just saying from my vantage point, since I didn't experience the conditions first-hand, happening mostly late evening into the overnight. It obviously was, though, just saying compared to other snowstorms where I could witness the white-out conditions during the day, it didn't seem as impressive. February 6, 2008, a Dec 2008 storm, to mention two, were more impressive since I witnessed the near white-out conditions firsthand. Therefore, this wasn't meant to diminish the event as a whole.

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Don't think I can look any of the GHD blizzard pics anymore. Can't help but think of MBY and the fact that I knew it would have the killer NW trend, despite the NAM showing some hope. When we were in the dry slot and got sleet for an hour while seeing illinois sit in the deformation band was as bad as watching my g/f make out with a dude you couldn't stand in high school.

I know this may come to the dismay of some but honestly? GHD was nothing really special. The lake helped with alot of the higher totals unlike say Jan 67 which had even higher totals ( more widespread and as windy etc ) well away from the lake. GHD was a decent storm but i would not put it up there with some of the greats.

For real? :facepalm:

Even i had to scratch my head on that one. :lol:

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Not here to complain, as we've been really lucky IMBY in terms of snowstorms the last 5 years (I checked a day or two ago and we've had 25 WS warnings in the last 5 years), but the one qualm I have about the Groundhog Day storm was all the snow occurred in darkness, so not much ability to get very good video. It may have produced very well here, but I decided not to go out in it, and therefore it didn't really feel like that great a storm (besides the momentary TSnow I experienced). I guess I just have such high expectations.

too bad you didn't go out in it, wander around a bit, get lost, and never come back.

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I know this may come to the dismay of some but honestly? GHD was nothing really special. The lake helped with alot of the higher totals unlike say Jan 67 which had even higher totals ( more widespread and as windy etc ) well away from the lake. GHD was a decent storm but i would not put it up there with some of the greats.

Well it's always relative to everyone's backyard with what they consider big/memorable/historic storms. Feb 2007 was a big one for me, but for you (and others) it was pretty run of the mill. Same can be said for Jan 67 I'm sure. Would be nice to see another one like that for your case, but for Chicago...well it pretty much happened with the GHD storm. Hoosier would like a repeat, as Jan 67 was a serious ice storm here in LAF...he could cross that off his weather "to do" list. :D

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Sounds like there is a double standard going on. I say the Groundhog Day Storm was a little disappointing because it happened at night, and wasn't the most impressive storm, and Harry says the same thing, but yet they get two different responses. By the looks of it we had pretty similar totals from the storm, so it wasn't as though he was outright screwed. Grand Rapids, within 30-45 minutes of Battle Creek, had similar totals to MKE for the storm.

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Sounds like there is a double standard going on. I say the Groundhog Day Storm was a little disappointing because it happened at night, and wasn't the most impressive storm, and Harry says the same thing, but yet they get two different responses. By the looks of it we had pretty similar totals from the storm, so it wasn't as though he was outright screwed. Grand Rapids, within 30-45 minutes of Battle Creek, had similar totals to MKE for the storm.

Well to be fair, one of your reasons it wasn't "special" was that you decided not to go outside during the storm. The night thing is kinda weak too. But hey, to each his own I guess.

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Well to be fair, one of your reasons it wasn't "special" was that you decided not to go outside during the storm. The night thing is kinda weak too. But hey, to each his own I guess.

I have to be clear that I didn't say it was not an impressive storm, I said it didn't seem all that impressive to me, which I acknowledge was largely my fault.

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Well it's always relative to everyone's backyard with what they consider big/memorable/historic storms. Feb 2007 was a big one for me, but for you (and others) it was pretty run of the mill. Same can be said for Jan 67 I'm sure. Would be nice to see another one like that for your case, but for Chicago...well it pretty much happened with the GHD storm. Hoosier would like a repeat, as Jan 67 was a serious ice storm here in LAF...he could cross that off his weather "to do" list. :D

I suppose but still without the lake what would have the totals been? Jan 67 dumped 24-31 without help from the lake over a much greater area from IL into MI etc. Then it had that ice element too as you mentioned. I doubt many in Chicago would frown at a Jan 67 repeat. :P YES GHD was a great storm for Chicago and a few others along the lake but that was about it. Very decent storm for here even ( 14" ) and the best storm i have yet to see in this area. Still not what i would call one of the greats. I say the same about early Feb 96 which many don't speak of and rightfully so. Yes it dumped 2 and a half feet imby but it was isolated and thus not many others got that. Despite being great imby i would not rank it up there with the greats. Guess i am a harsh winter storm critic. On the other hand March 93 was a great storm and thus among the greats yet imby it sucked. Maybe i am just odd with my rating system? :lol:

I'll pass on the ice. Atleast till i live in a house not surrounded by powerlines. :P

As for getting the big one here? meh.. Time to accept that it may be a long time before i see one of them again. Thus i'll enjoy whatever i get. All things considered it has been a great stretch around here so i really can't complain. :)

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I suppose but still without the lake what would have the totals been? Jan 67 dumped 24-31 without help from the lake over a much greater area from IL into MI etc. Then it had that ice element too as you mentioned. I doubt many in Chicago would frown at a Jan 67 repeat. :P YES GHD was a great storm for Chicago and a few others along the lake but that was about it. Very decent storm for here even ( 14" ) and the best storm i have yet to see in this area. Still not what i would call one of the greats. I say the same about early Feb 96 which many don't speak of and rightfully so. Yes it dumped 2 and a half feet imby but it was isolated and thus not many others got that. Despite being great imby i would not rank it up there with the greats. Guess i am a harsh winter storm critic. On the other hand March 93 was a great storm and thus among the greats yet imby it sucked. Maybe i am just odd with my rating system? :lol:

Historic snowfall totals were seen down into Oklahoma (widespread 20"+ in Missouri).

Even without lake enhancement, totals would still have been 15"+ which would have still made it a top 10 snowstorm in Chicago wx history.

So yes, you're being too harsh.

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I know this may come to the dismay of some but honestly? GHD was nothing really special. The lake helped with alot of the higher totals unlike say Jan 67 which had even higher totals ( more widespread and as windy etc ) well away from the lake. GHD was a decent storm but i would not put it up there with some of the greats.

Even i had to scratch my head on that one. :lol:

Yea it was run of the mill for west Michigan as they usually get a good amount of snow but westward into Illinois it was a beauty. Some of the thundersnow clips were pretty cool. Don't pay attention to Illinois/Missouri snowstorms but I'd venture to guess snow totals that were found there don't occur too often/or anywhere for that matter.

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Not here to complain, as we've been really lucky IMBY in terms of snowstorms the last 5 years (I checked a day or two ago and we've had 25 WS warnings in the last 5 years), but the one qualm I have about the Groundhog Day storm was all the snow occurred in darkness, so not much ability to get very good video. It may have produced very well here, but I decided not to go out in it, and therefore it didn't really feel like that great a storm (besides the momentary TSnow I experienced). I guess I just have such high expectations.

0_o

Here in Tulsa it snowed the hardest around 7:00 in the morning on 2/1... set the alarm for 5:00 that day :)

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Well to be fair, one of your reasons it wasn't "special" was that you decided not to go outside during the storm. The night thing is kinda weak too. But hey, to each his own I guess.

I actually take points away for night event too BUT i did go out in GHD and yes it was very cool. No way would i ever stay in with a full fledged blizzard. That is his fault he did not go out.

PD 1 ( Feb 79 ) was mostly a night event and i still get pissed that i slept through alot of it. Ofcourse i was a kid then but still. Also why i rank Feb 83 ( megalopolis storm ) as my favorite as it was a daytime event. Plus it did have a nice thunder and light show too. Did not have as high snow total imby ( 21 or so vs 24 in PD 1 which also came down harder in a quicker time frame ) as a few others have but being out and seeing S+++ fall for alot of the day with the thunder and light show is hard to top.

Here i don't mind night events as it is pretty well lit and ofcourse i can stay up and watch it but still daytime is better. imo

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Don't think I can look any of the GHD blizzard pics anymore. Can't help but think of MBY and the fact that I knew it would have the killer NW trend, despite the NAM showing some hope. When we were in the dry slot and got sleet for an hour while seeing illinois sit in the deformation band was as bad as watching my g/f make out with a dude you couldn't stand in high school.

The NAM showed hope because it was dead wrong and was being influenced significantly by sub-grid scale feedback associated with grossly overcooked convection.

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I suppose but still without the lake what would have the totals been? Jan 67 dumped 24-31 without help from the lake over a much greater area from IL into MI etc. Then it had that ice element too as you mentioned. I doubt many in Chicago would frown at a Jan 67 repeat. :P YES GHD was a great storm for Chicago and a few others along the lake but that was about it. Very decent storm for here even ( 14" ) and the best storm i have yet to see in this area. Still not what i would call one of the greats. I say the same about early Feb 96 which many don't speak of and rightfully so. Yes it dumped 2 and a half feet imby but it was isolated and thus not many others got that. Despite being great imby i would not rank it up there with the greats. Guess i am a harsh winter storm critic. On the other hand March 93 was a great storm and thus among the greats yet imby it sucked. Maybe i am just odd with my rating system? :lol:

I'll pass on the ice. Atleast till i live in a house not surrounded by powerlines. :P

As for getting the big one here? meh.. Time to accept that it may be a long time before i see one of them again. Thus i'll enjoy whatever i get. All things considered it has been a great stretch around here so i really can't complain. :)

GHD was epic for other areas though, especially portions of the southern plains.

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Since we are talking about IMBY for the moment, it was tough last winter watching LAF getting clobbered with snow and just 30 miles or less east I received significantly less. It was not like LES or elevations made the difference. Just subtle differences in storm track.

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We were lucky. Just as lucky as in 07-08, when places just south of here had half of the snow that LAF saw. Hmm, maybe this isn't a winter wasteland after all...

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I suppose but still without the lake what would have the totals been? Jan 67 dumped 24-31 without help from the lake over a much greater area from IL into MI etc. Then it had that ice element too as you mentioned. I doubt many in Chicago would frown at a Jan 67 repeat. :P YES GHD was a great storm for Chicago and a few others along the lake but that was about it. Very decent storm for here even ( 14" ) and the best storm i have yet to see in this area. Still not what i would call one of the greats. I say the same about early Feb 96 which many don't speak of and rightfully so. Yes it dumped 2 and a half feet imby but it was isolated and thus not many others got that. Despite being great imby i would not rank it up there with the greats. Guess i am a harsh winter storm critic. On the other hand March 93 was a great storm and thus among the greats yet imby it sucked. Maybe i am just odd with my rating system? :lol:

I'll pass on the ice. Atleast till i live in a house not surrounded by powerlines. :P

As for getting the big one here? meh.. Time to accept that it may be a long time before i see one of them again. Thus i'll enjoy whatever i get. All things considered it has been a great stretch around here so i really can't complain. :)

GHD was an epic sleet storm here. One that I hope to never see again for a long time...epic sleet that is. But as others have said, GHD did extend down into the Plains and Mississippi Valley area where there were 12"+ (20"+) amounts...so it wasn't just a Chicago or Lakes thing.

Ice? Yeah I'll pass. Seeing what has happened to OK, MO, KY, etc in the past has me wanting no part of that. But yes it has been a good run of winters lately. Hopefully this one is just as good for all. :)

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Yea it was run of the mill for west Michigan as they usually get a good amount of snow but westward into Illinois it was a beauty. Some of the thundersnow clips were pretty cool. Don't pay attention to Illinois/Missouri snowstorms but I'd venture to guess snow totals that were found there don't occur too often/or anywhere for that matter.

GHD was a odd storm. Most of the big Chicago events has as well been big ones here. Why i usually route with them on storm tracks. :thumbsup: See both Jan 67 with 28-31" here and Jan 79 with 18-20" here. I think even Lansing had similar totals in those events. Uncertain about Jan 78 there but it was great here with 25".. GHD was the exception/oddball. meh..Maybe i am being a little harsh as it did have it moments.

Anyone know of what the totals were further sw in Jan 67 or 79?

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GHD was a odd storm. Most of the big Chicago events has as well been big ones here. Why i usually route with them on storm tracks. :thumbsup: See both Jan 67 with 28-31" here and Jan 79 with 18-20" here. I think even Lansing had similar totals in those events. Uncertain about Jan 78 there but it was great here with 25".. GHD was the exception/oddball. meh..Maybe i am being a little harsh as it did have it moments.

Anyone know of what the totals were further sw in Jan 67 or 79?

I would still call 14" a big one. I realize you guys in W Michigan get a lot of lake-effect events, which makes a foot not sound like a lot, but I would consider anything over a foot a big storm, even if it was a prolonged high-end moderate snow. My caveat I mentioned before was just that, the one caveat to what otherwise was an impressive storm.

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GHD was an epic sleet storm here. One that I hope to never see again for a long time...epic sleet that is. But as others have said, GHD did extend down into the Plains and Mississippi Valley area where there were 12"+ (20"+) amounts...so it wasn't just a Chicago or Lakes thing.

Ice? Yeah I'll pass. Seeing what has happened to OK, MO, KY, etc in the past has me wanting no part of that. But yes it has been a good run of winters lately. Hopefully this one is just as good for all. :)

IF there was NO SNOW at all in any part of the system i would not mind seeing such a event. Maybe it is me but the crazy sleet torms appear to becoming more common in recent years. Closest thing for me was with one of those ice storms back east in 93-94. Got about a half inch of sleet before it went to all freezing rain. Hoosier would have loved that ice event. I actually did not mind it but i had no power lines/poles or trees near my house either. I only lost power briefly unlike many others who were out for 2 weeks to over a month in some cases.

IF timing is good this could be a very big winter for alot of folks in this region. Amazes me to be saying that too considering the past number of winters but hey all the signals are there for it at the moment. Still wanna give it a few more weeks ( to watch a few other things ) before i go full bore with it and make a call.

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