Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Harry]

I had thought there was a thread for this already but i guess i was wrong. Anyways this will be a good place for all to discuss the cold/snow season ahead of us.

I'll start with this puppy.

I could not have done a better job painting that.

[kab2791]

Saw this in another thread

[Chicago WX]

Good idea for the thread. Can't wait for winter to arrive.

[Harry]

I am going with the 1917-18 analog. Triple Phaser in mid-January. Will peak over Lake Erie at 958mb and drop 1-3 feet from gulf coast to canada.

That was a BRUTAL Winter in terms of cold. 2nd coldest Jan ever at Lansing with a average temp of 10.2 vs normal of 21.7 and the coldest Jan being 9.2 back in 1912! Jan 1875/1977 is the 3rd coldest Jan ever with a average of 11.1!

So what makes you like 1917-18?

fwiw it was a second year Nina. Similar on the solar front as well if i recall correctly? Unsure about the rest of the stuff as i don't recall at the moment.

[River Card]

Just a thread from FB from a met I know just chit chatting a bit about winter. For what it's worth here is what he has talked about.

Dave Murray on FOX 2 just putting together the fall forecast right now..that will be out august 25th--so winter has taken a little back seat..but i don't see it being a real tough one...so i like your thinking at this point. I believe winter ushers in with a bang bringing solid cold very early in Dec, but after that is when I expect to see some long faces. I think the areas of the midwest that got whacked last year end up much drier this year and these same areas might also see several wild swings with real cold and some really abnormal warmth. I expect the la nina to not be your typical hyper active one this year. This is a fluke winter that may lead the choruses of the global warming fans to raise their voices but the step down to colder and snowier winters is alive and well and we should be well in the threshold of a rough winter in 2012/13. This is not cemented in stone yet, a long way to go yet for any pinpoint ideas guys.

Untill proven wrong, the last several winters have had that persistent blocking so me personally not going to go against it. Arctic sea ice low....greater chance for -NAO yes?

[wisconsinwx]

The whole post is full of things he "thinks" will happen with nothing to back it up...

Though I do agree with him about the snowier winters trend..

I don't disagree with that comment but another thing I want to note about the bolded part: that's not a very insightful commentary given global warming theorists chirp whether the winter is warm and dry or cold and snowy. That's my one political interlude for the day.

[dmc76]

97 days till November! cant wait

[BeastFromTheEast]

I don't disagree with that comment but another thing I want to note about the bolded part: that's not a very insightful commentary given global warming theorists chirp whether the winter is warm and dry or cold and snowy. That's my one political interlude for the day.

I don't either but yeah definitely not insightful..

[Quixotic1]

An unpopular pick but, I'm going to go with '64 - '65. So far similar SSTs to this year. Nina year. -PDO. -QBO probable. Similar solar cycle. Not big on analogs because nothing is a perfect match and this one is no different.

[River Card]

I haven't heard much about analog years for this winter, who knows perhaps this is uncharterd territory but could a year like 1936 be possible to consider based on the heat dome and drought in the southern plains, the heat this summer and what not....Just ignoring ENSO and going on trends the 30's were very mild winters with the exception of 36 where for many northern areas still is the benchmark for cold weather records. Just tossing this theory out for discussion, but the heat this past July certainly had some "flavors" of 36 so that's why I serve this up.

[River Card]

The person who mentioned 64/65 ....

Season....ORD.......MDW

1964-65....61.3".......59.5"

Of interest here is the tally at Ohare and Midway are pretty close which could suggest that this area saw more in the way of synoptic snows region wide versus lake effect events that might have padded MDW a bit? Was the pattern that winter hyper active all 3 months of winter or was there a 6 week period that saw the brunt of the snows?

[Stebo]

Some years I'd personally look at would be 55-56, 56-57, 74-75, 96-97, and 2000-2001 with relation to La Nina to Near Neutral back to La Nina. A few of these years had some big years but most fell in December. Overall though most of these years ended up Normal to Above Normal.

[Quixotic1]

The person who mentioned 64/65 ....

Season....ORD.......MDW

1964-65....61.3".......59.5"

Of interest here is the tally at Ohare and Midway are pretty close which could suggest that this area saw more in the way of synoptic snows region wide versus lake effect events that might have padded MDW a bit? Was the pattern that winter hyper active all 3 months of winter or was there a 6 week period that saw the brunt of the snows?

I don't have it pulled up, so this is pretty much from memory: December was near normal across the CONUS with ridging in the SW, some troughing in the pac NW and more ridging along the East coast. There was a flip in January that saw the PNA go positive and a large trough form over the eastern two-thirds of the US. My guess is Chicago got a lot of clipper type systems.

Some years I'd personally look at would be 55-56, 56-57, 74-75, 96-97, and 2000-2001 with relation to La Nina to Near Neutral back to La Nina. A few of these years had some big years but most fell in December. Overall though most of these years ended up Normal to Above Normal.

Those years were all on the list except for 96-97. Had 67-68, 95-96 and 89-90. The goal was to get it down to one year that encapsulated what I thought would happen. It didn't really matter since the pattern seemed to be same when all the years were averaged out: A big general trough east of the Rockies, ridging in the southwest, cold in the PACNW and a ridge in the far SE.

[Hoosier]

Given historical precedence following Nina's of last years intensity, recent trends and model forecasts, it seems like a pretty safe bet that ENSO will be somewhere on the cold side this winter. I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run toward moderate Nina but weak is probably a higher probability scenario at this point. Things can change pretty quickly.

We need a neutral winter...that's where you really have to get creative with a winter outlook.

[River Card]

Given historical precedence following Nina's of last years intensity, recent trends and model forecasts, it seems like a pretty safe bet that ENSO will be somewhere on the cold side this winter. I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run toward moderate Nina but weak is probably a higher probability scenario at this point. Things can change pretty quickly.

We need a neutral winter...that's where you really have to get creative with a winter outlook.

It seems like forever since we have had a neutral winter, at least since 07/08 we have had several ninas and a nino that was pretty cold. I did read on accuweather that second year ninas tend to feature more of a +nao/ao when in the neutral state and really everything hedges on the state of the pna. Is that a known fact or is history incunclusive regarding that?

The arctic sea ice and how much has been gobbled up this year would lead me to think a -nao/ao scenario could play out...and why not, the last several winters have been about blocking anyway...can't see any reason to deviate from that until proven wrong.

[Harry]

I haven't heard much about analog years for this winter, who knows perhaps this is uncharterd territory but could a year like 1936 be possible to consider based on the heat dome and drought in the southern plains, the heat this summer and what not....Just ignoring ENSO and going on trends the 30's were very mild winters with the exception of 36 where for many northern areas still is the benchmark for cold weather records. Just tossing this theory out for discussion, but the heat this past July certainly had some "flavors" of 36 so that's why I serve this up.

Problem is the massive drought back then in the 1920s/30s.

[Harry]

It seems like forever since we have had a neutral winter, at least since 07/08 we have had several ninas and a nino that was pretty cold. I did read on accuweather that second year ninas tend to feature more of a +nao/ao when in the neutral state and really everything hedges on the state of the pna. Is that a known fact or is history incunclusive regarding that?

The arctic sea ice and how much has been gobbled up this year would lead me to think a -nao/ao scenario could play out...and why not, the last several winters have been about blocking anyway...can't see any reason to deviate from that until proven wrong.

Officially 08-09 was neutral. Was as close as you can get though to being declared Nina. The next would be 05-06 and then 03-04, 01-02 and before that 96-97.

[River Card]

Officially 08-09 was neutral. Was as close as you can get though to being declared Nina. The next would be 05-06 and then 03-04, 01-02 and before that 96-97.

Thanks bro!

Harry you will have to chime in on some prelim thoughts soon. Honestly the past few winters you have had some solid ideas that verified, even your snow totals were awfully close. I respect your opinion and try to learn from you. I guess the monthly euro is still showing warm fall still?

[Harry]

Thanks bro!

Harry you will have to chime in on some prelim thoughts soon. Honestly the past few winters you have had some solid ideas that verified, even your snow totals were awfully close. I respect your opinion and try to learn from you. I guess the monthly euro is still showing warm fall still?

Thanks.

Euro monthlies have us near normal to a shade below normal ( coldest in N.Plains/W.GL ) for the fall and or Sept, Oct, Nov. Showing the above normal in the sw part of the country.

[River Card]

Thanks.

Euro monthlies have us near normal to a shade below normal ( coldest in N.Plains/W.GL ) for the fall and or Sept, Oct, Nov. Showing the above normal in the sw part of the country.

Intersting....should be fun as we near Sept as the clues become clearer.

[Stebo]

I don't have it pulled up, so this is pretty much from memory: December was near normal across the CONUS with ridging in the SW, some troughing in the pac NW and more ridging along the East coast. There was a flip in January that saw the PNA go positive and a large trough form over the eastern two-thirds of the US. My guess is Chicago got a lot of clipper type systems.

Those years were all on the list except for 96-97. Had 67-68, 95-96 and 89-90. The goal was to get it down to one year that encapsulated what I thought would happen. It didn't really matter since the pattern seemed to be same when all the years were averaged out: A big general trough east of the Rockies, ridging in the southwest, cold in the PACNW and a ridge in the far SE.

The reason I would shy away from 89-90 is that was a Neutral winter more than anything with the -0.3 to + 0.3 range. Not to mention this year looks to transition close to a Mod La Nina, which wouldn't gel well with 89-90.

[toronto blizzard]

The reason I would shy away from 89-90 is that was a Neutral winter more than anything with the -0.3 to + 0.3 range. Not to mention this year looks to transition close to a Mod La Nina, which wouldn't gel well with 89-90.

Are you thinking that we are looking at a moderate nina for the winter Stebo?

[michsnowfreak]

I haven't heard much about analog years for this winter, who knows perhaps this is uncharterd territory but could a year like 1936 be possible to consider based on the heat dome and drought in the southern plains, the heat this summer and what not....Just ignoring ENSO and going on trends the 30's were very mild winters with the exception of 36 where for many northern areas still is the benchmark for cold weather records. Just tossing this theory out for discussion, but the heat this past July certainly had some "flavors" of 36 so that's why I serve this up.

The last thing anyone would want is 1936 as an analog. The hot summer of '36 would mean the following winter is 1936-37, which is the all-time LOW benchmark for snow for many major cities from the midwest to northeast. It was a notoriously snowless winter, not only for major cities (Detroits all time low of 12.9" is from this winter), but even ski-resorts had barren hills much of winter (i remember reading this). The cold you refer to is the 1935-36 winter.

Anyway, there is very little to worry about this. First of all, most summer of the 1930s were hot, in fact many places were hotter overall in numerous other years than 1936 (its just that 1936 has THE granddaddy of all heatwaves, but really most years in the 1930s had stifling summers). Also, there was a massive drought going on (dust bowl) at the time. Really, there is nothing feasible (luckily) to make this an analog.

[michsnowfreak]

The person who mentioned 64/65 ....

Season....ORD.......MDW

1964-65....61.3".......59.5"

Of interest here is the tally at Ohare and Midway are pretty close which could suggest that this area saw more in the way of synoptic snows region wide versus lake effect events that might have padded MDW a bit? Was the pattern that winter hyper active all 3 months of winter or was there a 6 week period that saw the brunt of the snows?

That winter was pretty wintry from start to finish. DTW only saw 49.3", but included in that is the infamous blizzard of 1965, which happened in late Feb. While the storm only dropped 11" of snow officially (still easily the biggest storm of the decade officially for Detroit). Snow covered the ground much of the time (DTW notched 76 days with 1"+ snowcover, nearly 4 weeks above the average of 49). Really the only downside of this winter would be that Christmas was rainy and mild (in fact it was Detroits first bare Christmas since 1957), but it would definitely be a winter most winter lovers wouldnt mind repeating (and after all, an analog is NOT a forecast lol, so little details like certain weather on the same days, ie a warm Christmas or a blizzard on Feb 25, will not happen, and if it did it would be mere coincidence).

[Chicago WX]

The last thing anyone would want is 1936 as an analog. The hot summer of '36 would mean the following winter is 1936-37, which is the all-time LOW benchmark for snow for many major cities from the midwest to northeast. It was a notoriously snowless winter, not only for major cities (Detroits all time low of 12.9" is from this winter), but even ski-resorts had barren hills much of winter (i remember reading this). The cold you refer to is the 1935-36 winter.

Anyway, there is very little to worry about this. First of all, most summer of the 1930s were hot, in fact many places were hotter overall in numerous other years than 1936 (its just that 1936 has THE granddaddy of all heatwaves, but really most years in the 1930s had stifling summers). Also, there was a massive drought going on (dust bowl) at the time. Really, there is nothing feasible (luckily) to make this an analog.

River Card (Respiratory Guy) would love a 1936-37 repeat. Have to read in between the lines.

Anyway, with another Nina winter looking to be in the offing, mixed past success in terms of snowfall for LAF. I just did a quick look but second year Nina winters tend to feature less snowfall than its predecessor here...though it'll be pretty hard for us to top the 49" from last winter I suppose. Of course there are exceptions to every rule.

[michsnowfreak]

Some years I'd personally look at would be 55-56, 56-57, 74-75, 96-97, and 2000-2001 with relation to La Nina to Near Neutral back to La Nina. A few of these years had some big years but most fell in December. Overall though most of these years ended up Normal to Above Normal.

I could live with any of those winter, especially 1974-75!

[michsnowfreak]

River Card (Respiratory Guy) would love a 1936-37 repeat. Have to read in between the lines.

Anyway, with another Nina winter looking to be in the offing, mixed past success in terms of snowfall for LAF. I just did a quick look but second year Nina winters tend to feature less snowfall than its predecessor here...though it'll be pretty hard for us to top the 49" from last winter I suppose. Of course there are exceptions to every rule.

I do get that vibe, between the lines.

Basically, if you look hard enough, you can find a "forecast" for the upcoming winter that you want, whether you want the winter of the century or the winter that wasnt, or anything in between, Im sure someone somewhere is forecasting that.

As Harry pointed out some early signs that are pointing to a good winter, I think thats great news. The Nina-Neutral-Nina pattern bodes well as it is, and further is the fact that we are in a snowy cycle the past decade. IMO, this leaves a large margin of error, ie: while lots of trends need to be ironed out in the coming months, not to mention details are never set in stone for anything til the last minute, but it appears the chance for a real crappy winter seems very very low at this point.

[Chicago WX]

I do get that vibe, between the lines.

Basically, if you look hard enough, you can find a "forecast" for the upcoming winter that you want, whether you want the winter of the century or the winter that wasnt, or anything in between, Im sure someone somewhere is forecasting that.

As Harry pointed out some early signs that are pointing to a good winter, I think thats great news. The Nina-Neutral-Nina pattern bodes well as it is, and further is the fact that we are in a snowy cycle the past decade. IMO, this leaves a large margin of error, ie: while lots of trends need to be ironed out in the coming months, not to mention details are never set in stone for anything til the last minute, but it appears the chance for a real crappy winter seems very very low at this point.

No doubt, there's always something out there for everyone.

Harry did a great job with his winter outlook last year, so I'm certainly keeping an eye on what he has to say this go around. Hopefully he remains optimistic/keeps seeing positive signs.

[Stebo]

Are you thinking that we are looking at a moderate nina for the winter Stebo?

I'm thinking a Weak to Moderate La Nina is in the cards, something along the lines of a -0.8 to -1.2 range right now.

[toronto blizzard]

I'm thinking a Weak to Moderate La Nina is in the cards, something along the lines of a -0.8 to -1.2 range right now.

Thanks. What about winter do you see cold/snowy in MW/GL?