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Ruggie's first thoughts about this upcoming winter.


MJO812

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I've read one or two scientific papers arguing another Little Ice Age is to set in during the 2011-12 winter based on the recent low sunspot activity...this would almost certainly bump local snowfall averages upwards...

There seem to be a bunch of factors conspiring for more snow :) One is the AMO, when we are in the more active phase of the cycle, the NAO also tends to be negative, another is the sunspot factor, like you mentioned, and a wildcard in all of this is the magnetic field reversal.

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There seem to be a bunch of factors conspiring for more snow :) One is the AMO, when we are in the more active phase of the cycle, the NAO also tends to be negative, another is the sunspot factor, like you mentioned, and a wildcard in all of this is the magnetic field reversal.

Normalyt he odds would stack against a third showstopper winter in a row, but the negative NAO may make the difference.
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1995-96 was an amazing winter and one that I believed wouldn't be rivaled for quite some time. However, after witnessing the last 2 winters, I'm beginning to think we may give 95-96 a run for its money (or defeat it) in the coming 5-10 years, given the -PDO/-NAO, declining AMO, low solar environment. If we can get a massive -NAO with a weak el nino event, look out.

If Feb and March wasn't a dud, we would have beaten 1996. Amazing that we had a lot of snow in a strong la nina. You can thank the +PNA and -NAO for that.

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95-96 was a great winter... The best in my memory

Bah. Too many warm spells.

Best thing about it was the birth of my son, during one of the snowstorms, on March 8. I was pretending to watch the snow and was really watching the C-section. When I remarked that my son was a redhead, she said, "you weren't supposed to be watching". I was, of course.

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