A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 His tropical season thoughts are riveting. I'm wondering if this is really how he "thinks" or if he really has too much time on his hands and is trolling. The stuff about "giants" he used to talk about was ridiculous. Plus, I really wish he would read up on astronomy before connecting comets to weather. Unbelievable. I hate to think what he would have been like had he lived back in 1910 when Earth passed through Halley's tail....btw nothing happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I'm wondering if this is really how he "thinks" or if he really has too much time on his hands and is trolling. The stuff about "giants" he used to talk about was ridiculous. Plus, I really wish he would read up on astronomy before connecting comets to weather. Unbelievable. I hate to think what he would have been like had he lived back in 1910 when Earth passed through Halley's tail....btw nothing happened lol. I don't really know what his intentions are, nor do I care. But, I will say this: don't trust anyone who can't even get the past and current conditions correct, regardless of their self-assessments of being a good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't really know what his intentions are, nor do I care. But, I will say this: don't trust anyone who can't even get the past and current conditions correct, regardless of their self-assessments of being a good forecaster. Well said.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I was busting Anthony's chops. 2010-2011 was a historic winter. It definitely was a historic winter for some.. not all though. I'd much rather 1995-96.. set all time snowfall record here with 114" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 It definitely was a historic winter for some.. not all though. I'd much rather 1995-96.. set all time snowfall record here with 114" of snow! Oh for sure. 95-96 blows away last year. Last year was essentially a 30 day winter, December 26-January 27. And then 1 more 4" event in February here. 95-96 was a full winter from November to April. Snowed every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Oh for sure. 95-96 blows away last year. Last year was essentially a 30 day winter, December 26-January 27. And then 1 more 4" even in February here. 95-96 was a full winter from November to April. Snowed every month. Dude we didn't have a 30 day winter. iIm tired of hearing this bullsh:t. 95-96 had snowless periods and massive heat surges, but because it happened in between snow events we pretend it didn't happen? What if boxing day was like december 10th, the 5 incher in January was around New Years, the 10 incher was around when it happened, mid January, then the ice storms around February 1st, the massive storm on the 26th of January around February 15th, and the 4 incher around March 1st-5th? We also got a a half inch of snow like December 13th. It still counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Dude we didn't have a 30 day winter. iIm tired of hearing this bullsh:t. 95-96 had snowless periods and massive heat surges, but because it happened in between snow events we pretend it didn't happen? What if boxing day was like december 10th, the 5 incher in January was around New Years, the 10 incher was around when it happened, mid January, then the ice storms around February 1st, the massive storm on the 26th of January around February 15th, and the 4 incher around March 1st-5th? We also got a a half inch of snow like December 13th. It still counts. Come on bro, it wasn't 90 degrees. It had a few big warmups only to be followed by more snow and more cold all the way through April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Dude we didn't have a 30 day winter. iIm tired of hearing this bullsh:t. 95-96 had snowless periods and massive heat surges, but because it happened in between snow events we pretend it didn't happen? What if boxing day was like december 10th, the 5 incher in January was around New Years, the 10 incher was around when it happened, mid January, then the ice storms around February 1st, the massive storm on the 26th of January around February 15th, and the 4 incher around March 1st-5th? We also got a a half inch of snow like December 13th. It still counts. It snowed from Dec. 26-January 27 and then 1 more time for some areas (me and you included) in February. Thats a 30 day winter. 95-96 had heat surges, but so what? Snowstorms kept coming. From November thru April! Non-stop barrage of snowstorms. I honestly do not care about cold. If it isnt snowing, screw the cold. And if your scenario played out the way you just posted, with regards to timeline, it would've been a million times better. Full winter of snow. Classic, like 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 It snowed from Dec. 26-January 27 and then 1 more time for some areas (me and you included) in February. Thats a 30 day winter. 95-96 had heat surges, but so what? Snowstorms kept coming. From November thru April! Non-stop barrage of snowstorms. I honestly do not care about cold. If it isnt snowing, screw the cold. And if your scenario played out the way you just posted, with regards to timeline, it would've been a million times better. Full winter of snow. Classic, like 95-96. Why wait weeks in between though? We got hit with snow at a rate never before seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Maybe Ruggie is getting his predictions from here http://www.activistpost.com/2011/05/bad-news-from-nasa-proof-that-comet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Dude we didn't have a 30 day winter. iIm tired of hearing this bullsh:t. 95-96 had snowless periods and massive heat surges, but because it happened in between snow events we pretend it didn't happen? What if boxing day was like december 10th, the 5 incher in January was around New Years, the 10 incher was around when it happened, mid January, then the ice storms around February 1st, the massive storm on the 26th of January around February 15th, and the 4 incher around March 1st-5th? We also got a a half inch of snow like December 13th. It still counts. As impressive as our 32 day period of cold and snow was here,Baltimore MD and other areas in Md got the same amount of snow we had between FEB 2-10 2010!!!! Our snowcover was the impressive thing as it lasted for a long time. 1995-96 had a break from the blizzard until the storm in early FEB.WHile there was snowmelt from the big rainstorm 11 days later,the month was not blowtorch.We had little snow shots from time to time.March and April saw snow for much of the area.This past winter was over really after the JAN 26-27th storm.The storm in Feb was a nusiance snowfall for most of us.After that,winter was over.March saw no real cold and a little spit of snow. This past winter was a 32 day special.a Historic one at that for us.Before and after that is not even worth mentioning. 1995-96 had 21 individual snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The Canadian guy Roger? He's from British Columbia I think. Or could be you mean one of the UK people that's harping on a consistent -NAO My only concern this coming winter is the NAO state...I don't like the water temp profile in the NATL right now at all, but that can certainly change...we saw the GOA do a complete 180 from July 2002 to November with the warm pool that kept the West Coast ridge all winter....as long as we have the -AO though which I think we will once again the NAO can be somewhat meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 My only concern this coming winter is the NAO state...I don't like the water temp profile in the NATL right now at all, but that can certainly change...we saw the GOA do a complete 180 from July 2002 to November with the warm pool that kept the West Coast ridge all winter....as long as we have the -AO though which I think we will once again the NAO can be somewhat meaningless. Well the -NAO seems to have no problem sustaining itself right now, regardless of the SSTA set up in the Atlantic. But given the time of year and the high latitude of the jet stream, SSTA will have much more of an influence as we head into autumn and particularly winter. It's not much of a concern atm. As far as the NAO, placement/orientation of blocking is arguably more important the modality itself. We can have a negative NAO that does absolutely nothing for us in terms of snow...way east based over Iceland/Western Europe with short waves being sheared out/forced out to sea on the east coast. Part of the reason the past 2 winters were so amazing was b/c of the persistent west based block, positive height anomaly over W Greenland/Hudson's Bay, creating a perfect "slot" for cyclogenesis underneath the block on the mid atlantic coast. The AO is certainly crucial as well in terms of temps but I think the NAO is more pivotal re snowfall in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Why wait weeks in between though? We got hit with snow at a rate never before seen. We had more snowstorms in 1995-96 though and the centerpiece was better than anything last winter-- January 1996. We also got a 3-6 incher in November, a 8-14 incher in December, a 10-12 incher in February, March had frequent moderate snowstorms (like 3 to 4 of them), and we got a big one here in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 We had more snowstorms in 1995-96 though and the centerpiece was better than anything last winter-- January 1996. We also got a 3-6 incher in November, a 8-14 incher in December, a 10-12 incher in February, March had frequent moderate snowstorms (like 3 to 4 of them), and we got a big one here in April. 1995-96 was an amazing winter and one that I believed wouldn't be rivaled for quite some time. However, after witnessing the last 2 winters, I'm beginning to think we may give 95-96 a run for its money (or defeat it) in the coming 5-10 years, given the -PDO/-NAO, declining AMO, low solar environment. If we can get a massive -NAO with a weak el nino event, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 1995-96 was an amazing winter and one that I believed wouldn't be rivaled for quite some time. However, after witnessing the last 2 winters, I'm beginning to think we may give 95-96 a run for its money (or defeat it) in the coming 5-10 years, given the -PDO/-NAO, declining AMO, low solar environment. If we can get a massive -NAO with a weak el nino event, look out. Yes, I think even with a weak la nina we would have beat it last winter. It's just too bad it got out of control. I find multiyear la ninas maddening, but they usually get snowier by the 3rd year. Hopefully we dont go neutral this winter because that would be the worst enso scenario after a la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 We had more snowstorms in 1995-96 though and the centerpiece was better than anything last winter-- January 1996. We also got a 3-6 incher in November, a 8-14 incher in December, a 10-12 incher in February, March had frequent moderate snowstorms (like 3 to 4 of them), and we got a big one here in April. I agree 95-96 was the top winter. I'm just tired of people of calling it a 30 day winter when those 30 days have never seen so much snow fall ever. People also call 99-00 a 30 day winter also. But can anyone possibly compare that winter to last? Plus it wasnt only 30 days anyway; there was some light snow with a light accumulation in mid December, we had ice storms in early February and a 4 inch storm on February 22nd. Do these events simply cease to count as valid winter events? You know what it is, we got hit so hard so fast during that month long period that any relaxation in the snow blitz was interpreted as the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I agree 95-96 was the top winter. I'm just tired of people of calling it a 30 day winter when those 30 days have never seen so much snow fall ever. People also call 99-00 a 30 day winter also. But can anyone possibly compare that winter to last? Plus it wasnt only 30 days anyway; there was some light snow with a light accumulation in mid December, we had ice storms in early February and a 4 inch storm on February 22nd. Do these events simply cease to count as valid winter events? You know what it is, we got hit so hard so fast during that month long period that any relaxation in the snow blitz was interpreted as the end of winter. People should have lived through the 80s and early 90s to see how rough it can be. One of the craziest things is when people are complaining when they only get a foot of snow when they were supposed to get 20 inches-- man, we would have been crying tears of joy back in the 80s to get a foot of snow! That 32 days of winter we went through was the best 4 plus weeks of winter I've ever experienced hands down. I dont even remember 1999-2000 so that shows how much I thought of that season-- I usually dont remember winters or summers well unless they were great, regardless of how far back in time they occurred. I look at it like this-- in 2009-10 we had our best month of winter ever-- February 2010-- and that includes the Feb 6, 2010 heartbreak. Well, Dec 26, 2010 to Jan 27, 2011 topped that by a wide margin (less so for Nate because he got 26" in the retrosnowacane.) We got two HECS and a MECS that was an HECS on central Long Island and in Connecticut. On top of all that, sustained cold weather that allowed us to maintain a snow pack of historic levels. If that's only 32 days of winter, I'll take that every year and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 People should have lived through the 80s and early 90s to see how rough it can be. One of the craziest things is when people are complaining when they only get a foot of snow when they were supposed to get 20 inches-- man, we would have been crying tears of joy back in the 80s to get a foot of snow! That 32 days of winter we went through was the best 4 plus weeks of winter I've ever experienced hands down. I dont even remember 1999-2000 so that shows how much I thought of that season-- I usually dont remember winters or summers well unless they were great, regardless of how far back in time they occurred. I look at it like this-- in 2009-10 we had our best month of winter ever-- February 2010-- and that includes the Feb 6, 2010 heartbreak. Well, Dec 26, 2010 to Jan 27, 2011 topped that by a wide margin (less so for Nate because he got 26" in the retrosnowacane.) We got two HECS and a MECS that was an HECS on central Long Island and in Connecticut. On top of all that, sustained cold weather that allowed us to maintain a snow pack of historic levels. If that's only 32 days of winter, I'll take that every year and be happy. Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I agree 95-96 was the top winter. I'm just tired of people of calling it a 30 day winter when those 30 days have never seen so much snow fall ever. People also call 99-00 a 30 day winter also. But can anyone possibly compare that winter to last? Plus it wasnt only 30 days anyway; there was some light snow with a light accumulation in mid December, we had ice storms in early February and a 4 inch storm on February 22nd. Do these events simply cease to count as valid winter events? You know what it is, we got hit so hard so fast during that month long period that any relaxation in the snow blitz was interpreted as the end of winter. Not saying last year wasnt amazing. Those 32 days from Dec. 26-January 27, was the most amazing winter period of my life. Just unbelievable amounts of snow and cold. Imagine if the Jan 11th storm developed a few hours earlier and we got the CT totals here? Wow. All I am saying is that for me, I would prefer a winter from November thru April. I agree with Isotherm, that 95-96 will be challenged in the next 5- 10 years. Last year had a big chance at that. February had an ice storm and then the 4"-5" storm late. If March turned out snowy, like 95-96, we would've challenged the greatness of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 There was a big January thaw that caused historic flooding along many pts in NE PA.. but I remember there being a snowstorm predicted every 3-4 days.. we werent talking like 12"+ each one but alot of 6-10". There was a point where there were entire 30 min news shows around here talking about snow removal and where they were going to put it. We also had a blizzard in January of 1996 before the major thaw/flooding. This is just a gut instinct but I feel that we may have a winter similar to 95-96 coming up this next winter. Last winter actually had my locale finishing up with below normal snowfall (39") with the normal was 50". Was very cold though. It snowed from Dec. 26-January 27 and then 1 more time for some areas (me and you included) in February. Thats a 30 day winter. 95-96 had heat surges, but so what? Snowstorms kept coming. From November thru April! Non-stop barrage of snowstorms. I honestly do not care about cold. If it isnt snowing, screw the cold. And if your scenario played out the way you just posted, with regards to timeline, it would've been a million times better. Full winter of snow. Classic, like 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Maybe Ruggie is getting his predictions from here http://www.activistp...that-comet.html I just read this article... and I am :yikes::yikes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Not saying last year wasnt amazing. Those 32 days from Dec. 26-January 27, was the most amazing winter period of my life. Just unbelievable amounts of snow and cold. Imagine if the Jan 11th storm developed a few hours earlier and we got the CT totals here? Wow. All I am saying is that for me, I would prefer a winter from November thru April. I agree with Isotherm, that 95-96 will be challenged in the next 5- 10 years. Last year had a big chance at that. February had an ice storm and then the 4"-5" storm late. If March turned out snowy, like 95-96, we would've challenged the greatness of that winter. Will even said he thinks NYC will get a 100" snowfall season at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Will even said he thinks NYC will get a 100" snowfall season at some point I have my doubts...Albany has only done it 3 times in 127 years (I realize that you and NZ think Albany is some kind of snow-hole but whatever the case) so it would require an exceptional set of circumstances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I have my doubts...Albany has only done it 3 times in 127 years (I realize that you and NZ think Albany is some kind of snow-hole but whatever the case) so it would require an exceptional set of circumstances... Parts of Cape Cod broke 100" in 2004-05, and they average in the upper 20s. 2004-05 also wasn't a very blocky/-NAO winter overall. I definitely think 100" is possible for NYC, given parts of MD were in the 90-100" range for 2009-10 totals. 1995-96 exceeded 75" with a large junk of December and January wasted, so there's certainly room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I have my doubts...Albany has only done it 3 times in 127 years (I realize that you and NZ think Albany is some kind of snow-hole but whatever the case) so it would require an exceptional set of circumstances... To follow up on the difficulty one would need (at least in one scenario) it to be cold enough (at the right time) so that twice as many precipation events are snow as is normal and on top of that you would need twice as much precipation as normal...it's a very tall order... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 To follow up on the difficulty one would need (at least in one scenario) it to be cold enough (at the right time) so that twice as many precipation events are snow as is normal and on top of that you would need twice as much precipation as normal...it's a very tall order... I agree, we would need the perfect winter, and according to Don S's research we nearly pulled it off in the 1860s when NYC had 90" or so of snow just before they started keeping records. With the different way we measure snow today, that could easily have been over 100" by today's standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I agree, we would need the perfect winter, and according to Don S's research we nearly pulled it off in the 1860s when NYC had 90" or so of snow just before they started keeping records. With the different way we measure snow today, that could easily have been over 100" by today's standards I'm not saying it will *never* happen...in this business one learns quickly to keep that word out of their vocabulary...just that it would take an exceptional set of circumstances...and in a century and a half, they have only *once* gotten to more than 63% of the total.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I'm not saying it will *never* happen...in this business one learns quickly to keep that word out of their vocabulary...just that it would take an exceptional set of circumstances...and in a century and a half, they have only *once* gotten to more than 63% of the total.... Yes, in that thread where we were talking about it, we also said it probably wouldn't be in our lifetimes lol. But if it were to happen anytime "soon"-- it would have to be in this solar minimum-- we probably have until 2023 to get it and then the next chance will probably be too late for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Yes, in that thread where we were talking about it, we also said it probably wouldn't be in our lifetimes lol. But if it were to happen anytime "soon"-- it would have to be in this solar minimum-- we probably have until 2023 to get it and then the next chance will probably be too late for us I've read one or two scientific papers arguing another Little Ice Age is to set in during the 2011-12 winter based on the recent low sunspot activity...this would almost certainly bump local snowfall averages upwards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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