A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, I'm thinking from Clinton IA to Plymouth IN should be about the peak corridor based off of current convective trends and trends with the front. I've been without computer and using a phone all morning and just now looking at the meso page and visible loops. I'm thinking the best chance of training will be almost the same area as yesterday, northeast iowa, far southern wisconsin into northwest illinois, maybe a little south but not much. Seeing a nice surge north on visible and it looks like the wf has made it to around I80 with a few more hours left to keep shooting north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 So basically every model's wrong then, b/c the NMM and HRW both bring an MCS from SW Wisconsin and W Illinois across S Wisconsin and N Illinois, with decent amounts throughout the terrain. I highly doubt every single model, including the short term, high resolution ones, are wrong in painting moderate to heavy rains across much of the southern part of the state. if you just want people to tell you what you want to hear, maybe this type of discussion isn't for you. FWIW MKX MODELS CONTINUETO SHOW MAXIMUM QPF AXIS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WI FOR THE PERIOD BUT THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONT AND PCPN. WITH THE LACK OF ANY CYCLOGENESIS TO MOVE THE STATIONARY FRONT NWD...EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN IN NRN IL. HEAVIEST RAIN TO FALL ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...AFFECTING FAR SRN WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 So basically every model's wrong then, b/c the NMM and HRW both bring an MCS from SW Wisconsin and W Illinois across S Wisconsin and N Illinois, with decent amounts throughout the terrain. I highly doubt every single model, including the short term, high resolution ones, are wrong in painting moderate to heavy rains across much of the southern part of the state. I've seen it happen. This isn't like predicting whether or not it's going to be sunny. At this point, I'd agree with Tony in limiting the northern extent of the heavy rain too far into Wisconsin, but trends are important to watch as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Fwiw, the 12z GFS blows up the rain tonight very near the MKE area. Are the models still too far north, or are they catching on to reality? Dude you have to remember you can't use the Nam and GFS like you do in the winter during summer to pinpoint the weather. They struggle with convection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 back to filtered sun and we begin the road to instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 if you just want people to tell you what you want to hear, maybe this type of discussion isn't for you. FWIW MKX That's what I was referring to when I explained why I thought at least the southern row of counties would be affected by the heavy convection. We are likely right on the edge, again, so we'll have to see, but given we had some sun today (until this drizzle and cloud crap came in) I'm more optimistic than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Totals now that the morning rain has ended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Another red flag to me: ORD stated in its Mesoscale Update that the latest NAM, RUC and HRRR were projecting the boundary to lay from the border of WI/IL to the south suburbs of Chicago. If that's the case, sounds that the NAM has the right idea at least logistically. Wouldn't that information enable it to get the zones of greatest convection correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Storms are firing now in multiple locations in IA. Will be interesting to watch this evening where the heaviest bands set up. I'm most concerned for svr with the southern most cells near Ottumwa at present and how they develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't think there's going to be much in N Illinois or S Wisconsin at all this evening. Area of convection in C Wisconsin, but even in the storms in Iowa don't look to be moving fast or in a favorable direction to make it towards the Southern Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I don't think there's going to be much in N Illinois or S Wisconsin at all this evening. Area of convection in C Wisconsin, but even in the storms in Iowa don't look to be moving fast or in a favorable direction to make it towards the Southern Great Lakes. Yeah it's looking like tonight won't be as active as it appeared earlier. Now there's some big storms firing in Missouri which may help focus heavier rains even further south. Too many leftover clouds and lack of forcing over Iowa and northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah it's looking like tonight won't be as active as it appeared earlier. Now there's some big storms firing in Missouri which may help focus heavier rains even further south. Too many leftover clouds and lack of forcing over Iowa and northern Illinois. With mlcape sitting at 4000 over northern illinois, a front approaching and a slug of 2"+ pwats coming in from iowa, i'll be surprised if we don't see an MCS move east out of Iowa tonight. The llj won't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 With mlcape sitting at 4000 over northern illinois, a front approaching and a slug of 2"+ pwats coming in from iowa, i'll be surprised if we don't see an MCS move east out of Iowa tonight. The llj won't hurt either. This... From GRR which touches on a bit of what alek said.. .SHORT TERM...(335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011) (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS ON TRACK...AS WE EXPECT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY BEFORE 2 AM FRIDAY. SPC HAS PLACED AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FLOODING FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED UPPER PV MAX CROSSING THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL PV MAX WAS CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN MCS DRIVEN BY THE FIRST PV MAX APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND LIMITING DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH THE SECOND PV MAX SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AREA...WE EXPECT IT TO HELP THE LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILER/VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALREADY ARE UNDER-REPRESENTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE /PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING CELLS NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALL POINT TOWARDS A VERY GOOD SETUP FOR ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 DTX can go ahead and cancel the "flood watch" south of I-69... precip looks to be well north then they forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Part of the problem now is 700mb temps of 10-12*C. It'll be mighty difficult to get any significant convection with that type of warm air aloft. That said, the LLJ isn't expected to really ramp up until around/after midnight, and with the amount of moisture/instability/forcing in place it's hard to say any area will miss out on precipitation or should be dropped from the flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Storms in Southern Wisconsin just erupted out of nowhere the past few scans. Hopefully that bodes well farther east for those looking forward to more rain (though not TOO much!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Minor initiation just east of Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Storms in Southern Wisconsin just erupted out of nowhere the past few scans. Hopefully that bodes well farther east for those looking forward to more rain (though not TOO much!). Some are trying to get going near Benton Harbor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The atmosphere over the Heartland this evening is like a pot of boiling water. You can do your best to figure out where the next bubble will appear but it is hard to really pinpoint. Nevertheless, as has been mentioned, with a front approaching, high pwats, and a llj scheduled to increase I cast my lot that someone tonight will get a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 735 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0712 PM FLASH FLOOD SAVANNA 42.09N 90.14W 07/28/2011 CARROLL IL LAW ENFORCEMENT LARGE BREACH IN PORTLAND AVENUE LEVEE CAUSING FLOODING IN SAVANNA. This is on the Plum River bringing water down from Jo Daviess County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The atmosphere over the Heartland this evening is like a pot of boiling water. You can do your best to figure out where the next bubble will appear but it is hard to really pinpoint. Nevertheless, as has been mentioned, with a front approaching, high pwats, and a llj scheduled to increase I cast my lot that someone tonight will get a deluge. I wouldn't say a boiling pot of water, more like how the bathroom feels like taking a long hot shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Good to see you lurking, Justin. I know you have the big festival coming up in the Quad Cities this weekend. Any updates on flooding or expectations for precip tonight in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 When I emptied my rain gauge this morning i was shocked at how much overflow (the SRG holds 2" in the tube and the rest flows into the can). Cant remember measuring this much at one time, and it was certainly not expected, at least by me, to see such widespread heavy rain throught SE MI. Rainfall total imby was 3.20". Puts me at 7.97" for the month of July (since I got my rain gauge in Aug 2000, my only wetter month to date is May 2004 with 8.38"). My 2011 year-to-date precipitation is 31.05". Just crazy to think that anyone in SE MI was talking drought concerns (even for those areas that had been screwed with next to nothing since late June, your still talking a very snowy winter and rainy spring). But after last night rains the word drought is insane, as we are flirting with one of the wettest July's on record. Some of the official totals from the July 27-28 rain event, some widespread HEAVY rainfall. Its rare to see such widespread heavy totals like this. SE MICHIGAN MBY: 3.20" Pontiac: 3.45" Detroit: 3.51" White Lake: 3.57" Ypsilanti: 4.04" Flint: 5.05" *note, numerous reports near Ann Arbor of 6-7"!!! SW MICHIGAN Kalamazoo: 1.51" Battle Creek: 1.57" Lansing: 2.39" Muskegan: 2.45" Grand Rapids: 4.21" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like on the DVN sounding we have a very minor layer of warm air aloft around 850mb and I wonder if that might just keep things in check tonight more than last night with no strong trigger. More of a convergence zone/lift present from say around the Western burbs of Chicago down into Northeast Missouri so that might be the eruption zone into Northern Indiana/Southern Michigan for very heavy rains tonight around/after midnight if anything can get going. I'm kinda withholding judgement if we'll see anything widespread or as organized as last night, just don't have the same feeling about tonight as I did last night. Sounds like Davenport is going to be scrambling to get up sandbags along the mississippi to prepare for the quick rises on the river with Ragbrai ending here this weekend and the Bix here this weekend too. Gonna be fun to watch all this going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 And right after that post there appears to be some organized storm growth now going on from Southeast Wisconsin back to Northeast Missouri/Western Illinois right along that weak boundary where the dewpoints have pooled the best. This is definitely the risk zone tonight to me. And as others have said, once the LLJ kicks in that will allow for some backbuilding to the SW and run up over these same areas for a while so some impressive rain totals in excess of 5" cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Decent Storms just cracked in Ogle/Carroll Counties, could this be the beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A cell has popped up just west of here. Should be arriving shortly (if it holds and/or doesn't head in another direction). It would be nice if it became rooted at the surface with the higher instability on this side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 DTX can go ahead and cancel the "flood watch" south of I-69... precip looks to be well north then they forecasted. looks like its headed right for M59 if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Another great light show here. Several cells over 50kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Northeast Ogle County down to about Mid Cook County could be a little zone that see's some training and heavy rainfall. Can start to see that possibly shaping up on the radar. Little quasi-stationary boundary in that zone with a dew point pooling area feed right up into the storms forming in this area as well. The LLJ may allow some back building to the South and East of Sterling IL to continue to feed into this area later tonight for at least a period of time as well. This is definitely going to be the zone of flash flood potential. And of course the zone across Southern Michigan is getting pounded with a W-E band of very heavy/tropical rains as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.