Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Congrats Alek on your verified prediction of ten inches of rain for Dubuque. Reports from the area are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Congrats Alek on your verified prediction of ten inches of rain for Dubuque. Reports from the area are incredible. sounds a lot like wash rinse repeat coming up tonight, going to have to see how the afternoon clears out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 So the thunderstorm complex overnight took Flint from having the 3rd DRIEST July on record to the 9th WETTEST July on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 2" of rain from May 30th thru July 27th Close to 3.5" of rain here overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Woke up this morning and thought I was looking at an old radar image. I knew last evening when spotters were reporting 3+ inches in two hours that they were in trouble. Now I thought DVN would be busy with surveys in JD/Stephenson Counties today, but they won't be able to get there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Incredible rainfall amounts up near Galena and Dubuque. The scary thing is the area could pick up several more inches today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Up 4 feet in 12 hours, and that's the Mississippi River folks. Impressive stuff, I can only imagine what the creeks and tribs are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 706 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0705 AM HEAVY RAIN GALENA 42.42N 90.43W 07/28/2011 M13.45 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 706 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0705 AM HEAVY RAIN GALENA 42.42N 90.43W 07/28/2011 M13.45 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES. That gives her 30.75" of rain in the past two Julys combined. And 27.80" in the two weeks of July 22-29 in the past two years. Meanwhile, Galena averages 3.97" of precipitation in July since 1895 (missing about 15-20 in the early 1900s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 805 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0759 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE DUBUQUE 42.45N 90.66W 07/28/2011 M14.50 INCH DUBUQUE IA PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Hardin/Grundy County storm trying to go severe now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 After that flare up, multiple storms are interrupting inflow now but that adds the problem of merging cold pools and training storms over Highway 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 looks like another complex organizing and moving into the hardest hit areas, incredible display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 12z DVN sounding with 2.24" PWAT, and OAX with 2.13". WSW LLJ of around 40 knots impinging on the 850 front will make these storms equally efficient rain producers as those that occurred last night. The hope is that they are moving quickly enough that the threat is a shorter duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 NESDIS agrees... SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/11 1436Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1425Z HANNA . LOCATION...WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...IOWA... . ATTN WFOS...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... ATTN RFCS...NCRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALTHOUGH THE LLJ HAS VEERED AND WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF FROM ROUGHLY BREMER COUNTY S TO TAMA COUNTY IN E IA. ADDITIONALLY, COOLING CONVECTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR THE VIC OF BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT A BURST OF 1.0-2.0"/HR RAINS TO MOVE OVER THE DUBUQUE TO STEPHENSON COUNTY AREA OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES TO ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.0" TO POSSIBLY 2.0" IN LOCALIZED AREAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 2" of rain from May 30th thru July 27th Close to 3.5" of rain here overnight... Started around 10 last night. Was it really that much? Usually when it pours it wakes me up. Feast or famine it seems around here. Just looked at the observations overnight and your area down did well but just north of jackson received 6 inches. Impressive. Still 1.5 here on the eastside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 lucky for this area it has a river more then capable of handling this amount of water. Would have been more damaging if it happened in say Wausau WI or somewhere with a river that doesn't handle so many cubic feet per minute of flow. That amount of rain would have sent our Big Sioux surging. We have had abnormally high amounts of precip the last 2 years though too which has put a smile on my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 3.45 in pontiac and just 1.5 here..30 miles east. Still amazed at the dropoff of all kinds of precip time after time as you head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 3" on the nose here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Fwiw, the 12z GFS blows up the rain tonight very near the MKE area. Are the models still too far north, or are they catching on to reality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Dubuque mayor has declared a state of emergency according to media reports. Many roads damaged and bridges washed out in the area. Authorities report they cannot even get to some locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Fwiw, the 12z GFS blows up the rain tonight very near the MKE area. Are the models still too far north, or are they catching on to reality? Way too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Way too far north Yeah, I'm thinking from Clinton IA to Plymouth IN should be about the peak corridor based off of current convective trends and trends with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 1155 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW DUBUQUE 42.46N 90.75W 07/28/2011 M15.10 INCH DUBUQUE IA PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 It's partly sunny, warm and hazy right now but looks dark off to the sw. Hopefully can get close to a half inch with the small strip of showers/t'showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, I'm thinking from Clinton IA to Plymouth IN should be about the peak corridor based off of current convective trends and trends with the front. However, the sweet spot would be along and just north of the front. MKX thinks the southern counties in the CWA would expect heavy rain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 However, the sweet spot would be along and just north of the front. MKX thinks the southern counties in the CWA would expect heavy rain at least. Effective front is along/just S of I-80..."just north" of that does not include even the far srn row of WI counties. It could return just enough N to get some heavy rain into Kenosha/Walworth/Rock/Green/Lafayette/Grant Counties, but it seems increasingly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Was away for much of the day yesterday but was able to peek at what was transpiring in northwest IL. Just stunning amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Effective front is along/just S of I-80..."just north" of that does not include even the far srn row of WI counties. It could return just enough N to get some heavy rain into Kenosha/Walworth/Rock/Green/Lafayette/Grant Counties, but it seems increasingly unlikely. So basically every model's wrong then, b/c the NMM and HRW both bring an MCS from SW Wisconsin and W Illinois across S Wisconsin and N Illinois, with decent amounts throughout the terrain. I highly doubt every single model, including the short term, high resolution ones, are wrong in painting moderate to heavy rains across much of the southern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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