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Heavy Rain Threat Part Zwei


wisconsinwx

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Woke up this morning and thought I was looking at an old radar image. I knew last evening when spotters were reporting 3+ inches in two hours that they were in trouble.

Now I thought DVN would be busy with surveys in JD/Stephenson Counties today, but they won't be able to get there now.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

706 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN GALENA 42.42N 90.43W

07/28/2011 M13.45 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

706 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN GALENA 42.42N 90.43W

07/28/2011 M13.45 INCH JO DAVIESS IL CO-OP OBSERVER

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES.

That gives her 30.75" of rain in the past two Julys combined. And 27.80" in the two weeks of July 22-29 in the past two years.

Meanwhile, Galena averages 3.97" of precipitation in July since 1895 (missing about 15-20 in the early 1900s).

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

805 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0759 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE DUBUQUE 42.45N 90.66W

07/28/2011 M14.50 INCH DUBUQUE IA PUBLIC

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12z DVN sounding with 2.24" PWAT, and OAX with 2.13". WSW LLJ of around 40 knots impinging on the 850 front will make these storms equally efficient rain producers as those that occurred last night.

The hope is that they are moving quickly enough that the threat is a shorter duration.

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NESDIS agrees...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/11 1436Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1425Z HANNA .

LOCATION...WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...IOWA... . ATTN WFOS...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... ATTN RFCS...NCRFC... .

EVENT...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ALTHOUGH THE LLJ HAS VEERED AND WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF FROM ROUGHLY BREMER COUNTY S TO TAMA COUNTY IN E IA. ADDITIONALLY, COOLING CONVECTION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT HAS MERGED INTO THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR THE VIC OF BENTON AND LINN COUNTIES. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT A BURST OF 1.0-2.0"/HR RAINS TO MOVE OVER THE DUBUQUE TO STEPHENSON COUNTY AREA OVER THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES TO ONLY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.0" TO POSSIBLY 2.0" IN LOCALIZED AREAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

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2" of rain from May 30th thru July 27th

Close to 3.5" of rain here overnight...:flood:

Started around 10 last night. Was it really that much? Usually when it pours it wakes me up. Feast or famine it seems around here.

Just looked at the observations overnight and your area down did well but just north of jackson received 6 inches. Impressive. Still 1.5 here on the eastside.

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lucky for this area it has a river more then capable of handling this amount of water. Would have been more damaging if it happened in say Wausau WI or somewhere with a river that doesn't handle so many cubic feet per minute of flow. That amount of rain would have sent our Big Sioux surging. We have had abnormally high amounts of precip the last 2 years though too which has put a smile on my face.

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Yeah, I'm thinking from Clinton IA to Plymouth IN should be about the peak corridor based off of current convective trends and trends with the front.

However, the sweet spot would be along and just north of the front. MKX thinks the southern counties in the CWA would expect heavy rain at least.

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However, the sweet spot would be along and just north of the front. MKX thinks the southern counties in the CWA would expect heavy rain at least.

Effective front is along/just S of I-80..."just north" of that does not include even the far srn row of WI counties. It could return just enough N to get some heavy rain into Kenosha/Walworth/Rock/Green/Lafayette/Grant Counties, but it seems increasingly unlikely.

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Effective front is along/just S of I-80..."just north" of that does not include even the far srn row of WI counties. It could return just enough N to get some heavy rain into Kenosha/Walworth/Rock/Green/Lafayette/Grant Counties, but it seems increasingly unlikely.

So basically every model's wrong then, b/c the NMM and HRW both bring an MCS from SW Wisconsin and W Illinois across S Wisconsin and N Illinois, with decent amounts throughout the terrain. I highly doubt every single model, including the short term, high resolution ones, are wrong in painting moderate to heavy rains across much of the southern part of the state.

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