wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm worried about those showers in SW Wisconsin. I hope they dissipate or else we probably won't reach 75 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Skilling's RPM model showed a bowing MCS pushing through, followed by a training line across the northern tier of counties in N. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Skillings RPM model showed a bowing MCS pushing through, followed by a training line across the northern tier of counties in N. Illinois. Very believable based on the hi res guidance i'm seeing, I think anyone in a line from far southwest Wisconsin east south east to the far northside of the city is in play for 2"+ with extreme south central wisconsin down into Lake/McHenry in play for 5"+. EDIT: check out the pwat loop on the meso page, you can see the 2"+ values growing in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 for S&Gs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 That's a very interesting map. We need rain here in Elkhart county so I'll take it. Have concerns for those of you on the IL/WI line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Burned by the models again. Would think by now I would have learned to just listen to what Alek is forecasting and take notes...but no I'll be right back pulling my pud to the porn models show tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Burned by the models again. Would think by now I would have learned to just listen to what Alek is forecasting and take notes...but no I'll be right back pulling my pud to the porn models show tomorrow Me too! I was skeptical that he was calling for a WI/IL border/ORD special again, but he will likely be right if anything develops in IA. Btw, don't look at Hr 162 on GFS. That is porn of the worst kind. Don't look at the whole run in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Deep moisture really increasing on the northside over the last few hours with surface based instability on the rise, pwats heading up over 2" and dp's pooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Me too! I was skeptical that he was calling for a WI/IL border/ORD special again, but he will likely be right if anything develops in IA. Btw, don't look at Hr 162 on GFS. That is porn of the worst kind. Don't look at the whole run in fact. Only positive is we're not 90 degrees like down there but I'd rather be for the few hrs they will be if it meant flooding.. I love heavy rains that aren't severe. O and our whopping 1.24" today is a record! I'm happy we scored that but tonight is just another big disappointment like all spring and summer have been. If it wasn't for the Blizzard this would have been one last August to this August to forget as a weather nerd. Not to mention the 2010 winter sucked cheese balls too. What a rainy june/july its been the last two yrs for chicago and mke. well I should being saying rainy last yr in mke only. Chicago is up to 12.43" since june 1st with gawd only knows how much more to come....and last yrs J/J was 14.33" They're going to possibly be over 30" for those 4 months! MKE had 17.21" last J/J but only 6.61" so far this J/J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Only positive is we're not 90 degrees like down there but I'd rather be for the few hrs they will be if it meant flooding.. I love heavy rains that aren't severe. O and our whopping 1.24" today is a record! I'm happy we scored that but tonight is just another big disappointment like all spring and summer have been. What a rainy june/july its been the last two yrs for chicago and mke. well I should being saying rainy last yr in mke only. Chicago is up to 12.43" since june 1st with gawd only knows how much more to come....and last yrs J/J was 14.33" They're going to possibly be over 30" for those 4 months! MKE had 17.21" last J/J but only 6.61" so far this J/J I have many memories of floods past, so I have to say I enjoy a good flooding rain once in awhile. I remember last year's deluge, the one in June of '08 and in August of '07. It's becoming a yearly occurrence during summer around here. I was about to mention MKE's new record for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I have many memories of floods past, so I have to say I enjoy a good flooding rain once in awhile. I remember last year's deluge, the one in June of '08 and in August of '07. It's becoming a yearly occurrence during summer around here. I was about to mention MKE's new record for the date. Yeah I love me some flood and we've had our share lately. Last yrs wet 2 months saved it from being a disaster of a boring weather yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Only positive is we're not 90 degrees like down there but I'd rather be for the few hrs they will be if it meant flooding.. I love heavy rains that aren't severe. O and our whopping 1.24" today is a record! I'm happy we scored that but tonight is just another big disappointment like all spring and summer have been. If it wasn't for the Blizzard this would have been one last August to this August to forget as a weather nerd. Not to mention the 2010 winter sucked cheese balls too. What a rainy june/july its been the last two yrs for chicago and mke. well I should being saying rainy last yr in mke only. Chicago is up to 12.43" since june 1st with gawd only knows how much more to come....and last yrs J/J was 14.33" They're going to possibly be over 30" for those 4 months! MKE had 17.21" last J/J but only 6.61" so far this J/J Same here man! I love the flooding rains during summer and especially the tropical remnants that sometimes move up our way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 HPC's QPF Forecasts, which you can view on GRB's HWO page, continues to target the southern row of counties in WI for the heaviest amounts of rain, tapering off drastically both north and south. Seems a bit north of most people's thoughts, but if that were to verify, we might get another two or three inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 The 21z RUC maxes out precipitable water values in the southern couple rows of counties of Wisconsin in the next several hours; it's at about the mid 60s in mm, which is just over 2.5. It may be overdone, but that 21z RUC shows the heaviest rain from MKE down to Kenosha and back west to Madison and Prairie du Chien. This at least indicates if the warm front can lift a tad farther north, things may get interesting either with regard to heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Initiation now around Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Initiation now around Dubuque. yep, given the initiation location, positioning of the front and deep moisture and eventual llj orientation...I think the heaviest stripe will be from the iowa/wisconsin/illinois border area ESE right into the city proper...possibly as far south as I80 further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 yep, given the initiation location, positioning of the front and deep moisture and eventual llj orientation...I think the heaviest stripe will be from the iowa/wisconsin/illinois border area ESE right into the city proper...possibly as far south as I80 further east. Did you notice though that the convection's almost moving north/northeast? Maybe until the convection is strong enough for its outflow boundaries to push the warm front back southward, it will continue to drift north? Is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Man oh man these cells are huge!! And also training east..Lake County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Man oh man these cells are huge!! And also training east..Lake County yep, serious heavy rain threat tonight, they will start sliding ESE too with time, you're going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like MI will end up getting that much needed rain tonight. Big PWAT numbers making their way across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 yep, given the initiation location, positioning of the front and deep moisture and eventual llj orientation...I think the heaviest stripe will be from the iowa/wisconsin/illinois border area ESE right into the city proper...possibly as far south as I80 further east. impressive back building / training in far nw illinois and eastern iowa, me thinks someone will make a run at 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like MI will end up getting that much needed rain tonight. Big PWAT numbers making their way across the state. Ditto here. It has basically been intermittent heavy tropical showers for the last 14 hours. Seemingly every hour and a half or two hours, one fast moving, heavy shower has moved through. I'm sure this represents a typical summer day in Florida, except 20 degrees cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like MI will end up getting that much needed rain tonight. Big PWAT numbers making their way across the state. GRR just updated everything because of this.. .SHORT TERM...(950 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011) (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) WE HAVE UPDATED THE FCST THIS EVENING TO ADD IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HEADLINES...AND TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 100 PCT FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA. CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF HIGH THETA E AIR HAS LED TO SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING...EVEN BETWEEN THE INITIAL MCS THAT ROLLED THROUGH HERE EARLIER TODAY AND THE MAIN ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PWATS OF 2-2.5 ARE ADVECTING IN ON A 250-30 KNOT LLJ THAT IS MOVING OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE MI/IN BORDER AS OF 01Z THIS EVENING. THIS SECTION OF THE LLJ WILL TRANSLATE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. THE RUC IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LLJ THEN ACROSS SE IA AND NW IL...AIMED RIGHT AT THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE IA/WI/IL BORDER. THE RUC TRANSLATES THIS LLJ TO THE ENE OVERNIGHT...RIGHT INTO THE SRN PORTION OF OUR CWFA. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS GROWING QUICKLY...AND IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME FLOODING OCCUR SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-96 TO THE MI/IN BORDER. THIS WAS THE REASON FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /SEE MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/ AND WARNINGS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY WHEN THE AXIS SETS UP OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT IN OUR AREA IS NOT ZERO WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. INSTABILITY IS ON THE RELATIVELY LOW SIDE....AND JUST REMAINS MARGINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT REALLY DOES APPEAR THAT HYDROLOGY IS GOING TO BE THE BIG ISSUE TONIGHT. THE LLJ WILL THEN ALL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE AREA. Hydro... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA/HSA THROUGH 18Z THU. STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-96. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. PWATS OFF OF THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING ARE ABOVE 2.00 INCHES ALREADY WITH DVN SOUNDING SHOWING 2.36 INCHES AT 00Z. THE COLUMN IS NEARLY SATURATED WITH LOW LCL/S AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS LEADING TO THE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LLJ EXPECTED TO NOSE IN HERE THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE THE TRAINING OF STORMS SETS UP. THE BEST CHC OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1016 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 UPDATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED FROM 0.80 ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING TO 2.12 ALREADY ON THE 00Z SOUNDING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 25 MPH BUT HAVE EXHIBITED SOME DEGREE OF TRAINING AS MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS. BENEATH THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS...RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR SHIAWASSEE/GENESEE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER THE GRAND RAPIDS FORECAST AREA ARRIVES. COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO INDIANA/OHIO BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE COMPLEX IS TRACKING TO THE EAST...THE STRONG STORMS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK SEEM TO WANT TO TRY TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES AT THE BACK END OF THE LINE. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THIS COMPLEX MAY WANT TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT TONIGHT...A LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THIS COMPLEX AND REMNANT MCV MAY HELP IT TO MAINTAIN ITS EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. BEST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THIS COMPLEX TO ARRIVE AND BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT MAY NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH FROM THE FIRST ROUND THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR PRIMARILY A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL(SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR) IF THIS COMPLEX CAN MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH INTO MICHIGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 That line in nw IL sure isn't going anywhere fast with all the backbuilding. As Alek mentioned rain rates will be atrocious. And with that hilly country...watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Neat satellite comparison of our Midwest MCS in contrast to TS Don in the southern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 That line in nw IL sure isn't going anywhere fast with all the backbuilding. As Alek mentioned rain rates will be atrocious. And with that hilly country...watch out. yep and my prime swath appears to be arcing pretty hard southeast, so the lake county areas that were smoked this morning and northern cook that got hit a fe days back may be spared the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 yep and my prime swath appears to be arcing pretty hard southeast, so the lake county areas that were smoked this morning and northern cook that got hit a fe days back may be spared the worst. We can spread the wealth around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 the first storms coming into chi metro now will mess Batavia and the 88 corridor, should hit Aleking. The stuff behind that in northwest IL will make it farther south into northeast IL later on. and I agree with whoever mentioned making a run at 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 PWATS of 2.5" will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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