A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 the HPC has the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 meh, madison got about .5" per radar estimates with a small stripe of 1.5-2.5 well west of there. Everything seems to be playing out as expected with far western Wisconsin getting the brunt of round 1. I'd looked for additional scattered action to keep firing north of the wf into WI during the day. The main show will be the linear MCS that will probably getting going just north of the border this evening and slide ese with the cold front overnight. Right now i'd favor 1 county row north or south of the border for the main show overnight. I didn't even really expect to get more than a tenth or a quarter of an inch this morning so we've already overachieved in my eyes. Most of the models last night had everything passing north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 the HPC has the right idea Yes that looks about right to me as well. However, there has to be a little hole located at Bow's yard, since there's no way he's getting over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yes that looks about right to me as well. However, there has to be a little hole located at Bow's yard, since there's no way he's getting over an inch. I think you guys will be a little too far east and north for anything too crazy like the far southwest portion of WI looks to get, but a couple inches shouldn't be too hard. Going to have to watch the warm front today, storms trying to push into my area now and the new slight risk has jumped southeast quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Just had one real heavy burst of rain in the last 10 minutes; probably put down a few tenths of an inch or more by itself. Perhaps just an appetizer of things to come somewhere in S Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Just had one real heavy burst of rain in the last 10 minutes; probably put down a few tenths of an inch or more by itself. Perhaps just an appetizer of things to come somewhere in S Wisconsin. 94 south to about Waukegan looking really good for some imrpessive lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 94 south to about Waukegan looking really good for some imrpessive lollipops Yeah, not much thunder and lightning but impressive rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 953 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0950 AM HEAVY RAIN WADSWORTH 42.44N 87.92W 07/27/2011 M3.39 INCH LAKE IL BROADCAST MEDIA STORM TOTAL. INCLUDES APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES THAT FELL WITHIN LAST TWENTY MINUTES OF TIME OF REPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 953 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0950 AM HEAVY RAIN WADSWORTH 42.44N 87.92W 07/27/2011 M3.39 INCH LAKE IL BROADCAST MEDIA STORM TOTAL. INCLUDES APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES THAT FELL WITHIN LAST TWENTY MINUTES OF TIME OF REPORT. yep and that area will almost certainly see more heavy rain tonight and into thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 953 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0950 AM HEAVY RAIN WADSWORTH 42.44N 87.92W 07/27/2011 M3.39 INCH LAKE IL BROADCAST MEDIA STORM TOTAL. INCLUDES APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES THAT FELL WITHIN LAST TWENTY MINUTES OF TIME OF REPORT. Jeez, it took us almost 3 hours to gather close to one inch, and there were some heavier bursts within that 3 hours. To think it took them an hour to accumulate three or four times that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 lol @ the last NMM run having .10 over the next 48 hrs total in Lake Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1016 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 200 PM CDT * AT 1014 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. AS MUCH AS 4.21 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN WADSWORTH. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS. * RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... ANTIOCH...BEACH PARK...FOX LAKE...GURNEE...LAKE VILLA...LONG LAKE...VENETIAN VILLAGE...WAUKEGAN...WINTHROP HARBOR...ZION... CHANNEL LAKE...GRANDWOOD PARK...LAKE CATHERINE...LINDENHURST... THIRD LAKE AND WADSWORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 With the good possibility that a linear MCS trains across the WI/IL border area tonight, Wadsworth could make a run at 10" by the time this is all said and done. Thunder just starting at my place, make that a deluge. I can see how this would drop 4" so fast to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 So when is the warm front going to lift north and put us in the tropical air? Btw, brief heavy downpour again on the north side of town here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Just had one real heavy burst of rain in the last 10 minutes; probably put down a few tenths of an inch or more by itself. Perhaps just an appetizer of things to come somewhere in S Wisconsin. Yeah those were two decent 10 min burst of rains and really made the 1.10" event.. The second one made me wait in the car for a few minutes until it let up..what a prima donna To bad these rains were moving along fairly quick like MKE said tonight's will be also.. Still could see some fairly impressive totals if we can get into a couple tree hours of widespread and mostly mod to some heavy rains. Anything we can get to night will be bonus and I almost hope we miss all of the rain so Lake MI is less dirtied up for fishing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 So when is the warm front going to lift north and put us in the tropical air? Btw, brief heavy downpour again on the north side of town here. It has been slowed by convection and you can see the dews pooling just south of it from the QC area to Champaign Also from the current D1 A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF MN/WI ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY AND KEEP IT FROM LIFTING NORTHWARD VERY FAR INTO WI/MN LATER TODAY. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS IA/IL WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 The GFS continues the ugliness for far Southern Wisconsin and N Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 3 hr dwpt changes of 12 are moving into the area and the sun is about ready to play, so we'll be back in the soup in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like some of SEMI could get in on some of this....laws are really browning outside around my house now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like some of SEMI could get in on some of this....laws are really browning outside around my house now. Wow that's a sharp cutoff on the north end...and I'm right on it. I can't believe the NAM is now predicting 6 to 8 inches in the northern suburbs of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Wow that's a sharp cutoff on the north end...and I'm right on it. I can't believe the NAM is now predicting 6 to 8 inches in the northern suburbs of Chicago. It's actually a nested 4km run, not the actual NAM. It shows up to 12" in the heaviest pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Wow that's a sharp cutoff on the north end...and I'm right on it. I can't believe the NAM is now predicting 6 to 8 inches in the northern suburbs of Chicago. ru getting in on that heavy rain in northern mke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 ru getting in on that heavy rain in northern mke? I think I'm right on the hairy edge. Saukville will get it no doubt, though. Tropical better bring those plants in tonight, or they might float away into L. Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 It's actually a nested 4km run, not the actual NAM. It shows up to 12" in the heaviest pocket. Not quite Aurora levels, but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm probably a mile south of a training storm. Not a drop here, yet just to my north they'll probably get an inch from the one storm alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I think I'm right on the hairy edge. Saukville will get it no doubt, though. Tropical better bring those plants in tonight, or they might float away into L. Michigan. That rain should push that area of mke to near or over 2" With today's rain we're actually a little above average for the month now. Nap time for me and hopefully things will be a little more clear for tonight around here when i awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm probably a mile south of a training storm. Not a drop here, yet just to my north they'll probably get an inch from the one storm alone. dam.. keep waiting for it to sink s a little.. good thunder with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 dam.. keep waiting for it to sink s a little.. good thunder with it? Yeah, and finally starting to get dark enough for me to locate the core of the thunderstorm. Even as it was approaching, they were pretty light clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Rain just started, but will probably last for 15 minutes at most before the storm moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 hi-res nmm going bonkers over the WI/IL border, pretty large jump south from it's previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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