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6z GFS - 12/5/10


opengeo

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As I mentioned in the MA thread

Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics.

And

There is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect.

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Look at the 250MB Jet and compare the low track to it, If you have a low crossing the Jet like that, then I'm Santa Claus. In other words, the low is trying too hard to get to the coast that its ignoring synoptics and dynamics.

There is signals there with respect to a storm in that period but there is details to be worked out, and biases that are in place. For example GFS diving energy too far south, GFS holding onto a pattern too long, and the GFS trying to transition to the coast too early. All are things that need to be taken into effect.

Meaning that given the upper air features, you would expect this to slide out to sea as modeled?

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I would think it would go inland...there is again a lack of a -NAO or true 50/50 low.

This, whether or not its East or West of the mountains remains to be seen.

Although with it showing a lack of -NAO and no true 50/50, I'd hedge my bets on it going west of the mountains, and if you ignore the GFS bias it probably would.

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This, whether or not its East or West of the mountains remains to be seen.

Although with it showing a lack of -NAO and no true 50/50, I'd hedge my bets on it going west of the mountains, and if you ignore the GFS bias it probably would.

The more likely scenario would be that the NAO IS NEGATIVE, the 50/50 is there but the western ridge is unable to really develop causing the storm to just go offshore....of course no model currently shows that.

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The more likely scenario would be that the NAO IS NEGATIVE, the 50/50 is there but the western ridge is unable to really develop causing the storm to just go offshore....of course no model currently shows that.

I would argue a more meridional flow and there being a ridge along the west coast with a shortwave ridge between clipper 1 and this system.

Plus this is in the range of where the models have all been latching onto the NAO going near Neutral.

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Of course. You live west of the mountains

JI. I welcome your opinion. But with all due respect, looking at the GFS 180 hr, i would expect the low to go exactly where it did. Try to wrap around the low northeast of maine which would move it ene. The high to the northwest is building making it difficult to move northerly. However, the next models will probably be a different solution since it's still 8 days out.

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Guys, keep your trolling of each other out of a good model thread. Stebo, if there isn't a model thread in your region, start one. Ji, I know you're here because there's better model discussion in this forum than the Mid-Atlantic, but please don't trash it up arguing with Stebo.

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Guys, keep your trolling of each other out of a good model thread. Stebo, if there isn't a model thread in your region, start one. Ji, I know you're here because there's better model discussion in this forum than the Mid-Atlantic, but please don't trash it up arguing with Stebo.

Voyager, I'd like to think it is ok that I post on a model discussion in any region. I didn't ask to be trolled.

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JI. I welcome your opinion. But with all due respect, looking at the GFS 180 hr, i would expect the low to go exactly where it did. Try to wrap around the low northeast of maine which would move it ene. The high to the northwest is building making it difficult to move northerly. However, the next models will probably be a different solution since it's still 8 days out.

Sorry JI. I meant Stebo.

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Didn't see that post. We should all try to keep our dialogue related to model analyses.

It's over in Ji's thread in OT. In another post Ji posted a graphic of the GFS which showed a precip hole over our region and Mr Stebo posted, "good, i hope it stays like that all winter" He probably just has penis envy from our historic winter last year.

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Nah, just one who cancels winter daily. Trust me OT stuff is hardly comparable to real model analysis.

JI doesn't bother me at all, but I can see how he could annoy the **** out of people, so I believe you. Hope you are wrong about the mid-month threat! :thumbsup:

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