downeastnc Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You all should enjoy the heat while you have it. It's better than 0F temperatures and depressing conditions. Hell no I will take 0F over 100F anyday..................Don should be fun to watch but I wish he was north of PR headed WNW instead in the GOM but TX needs the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'll be up in Rock Hill, SC til Sunday afternoon (Soccer tourney) Forecasted highs of 99oF on both Friday and Saturday. I'm gonna friggin roast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 .Finally!.... And I'm wagering my bets on Sunday.....Pops may be 20-30%, but climatology says otherwise.....Sunday I will be 40.. Happy early Birthday. Weather looks to get a little interesting around that time. A front (very weak) will be coming down the front side of the ridge that will be sliding to the west late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is adamant that good rain chances exist then from the Carolinas and working west around Sunday into GA and maybe even central TN to Al. We'll see. But I've always liked it when a ridge rolls west and a decent front is sliding down the front side (speaking for the Carolinas anyway)...and when you add the moisture that might be enhanced from some outer moisture of Don that gets wrapped quickly around the ridge and into the front, we could end up with a heck of a stormy and wet time Saturday night and Sunday in the Carolinas and GA. Its not a guarantee but I can see how that would happen. I'm sure you wouldn't mind some rain on your b-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Happy early Birthday. Weather looks to get a little interesting around that time. A front (very weak) will be coming down the front side of the ridge that will be sliding to the west late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is adamant that good rain chances exist then from the Carolinas and working west around Sunday into GA and maybe even central TN to Al. We'll see. But I've always liked it when a ridge rolls west and a decent front is sliding down the front side (speaking for the Carolinas anyway)...and when you add the moisture that might be enhanced from some outer moisture of Don that gets wrapped quickly around the ridge and into the front, we could end up with a heck of a stormy and wet time Saturday night and Sunday in the Carolinas and GA. Its not a guarantee but I can see how that would happen. I'm sure you wouldn't mind some rain on your b-day i will take any relief we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Hell no I will take 0F over 100F anyday..................Don should be fun to watch but I wish he was north of PR headed WNW instead in the GOM but TX needs the rain. Alright we will see if you hum the same tune in winter haha. TS Don appears to be falling apart on inferred satellite as the low pressure works it's way through a pocket of dry air. Most models appear to have Don strengthening in the next 10 hours then remain at current strength...probably because of the air ahead of the storm that needs to be saturated. Either way you look at it, Texas will get drought relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Happy early Birthday. Weather looks to get a little interesting around that time. A front (very weak) will be coming down the front side of the ridge that will be sliding to the west late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS is adamant that good rain chances exist then from the Carolinas and working west around Sunday into GA and maybe even central TN to Al. We'll see. But I've always liked it when a ridge rolls west and a decent front is sliding down the front side (speaking for the Carolinas anyway)...and when you add the moisture that might be enhanced from some outer moisture of Don that gets wrapped quickly around the ridge and into the front, we could end up with a heck of a stormy and wet time Saturday night and Sunday in the Carolinas and GA. Its not a guarantee but I can see how that would happen. I'm sure you wouldn't mind some rain on your b-day Thanks much! Hoping for the rain...sorta disappointing when I don't have rain on my bday....sounds like you've found a way to better my odds....hoping that front does the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Latest 12Z GFS run stays hot, this is becoming a trend I'm not fond of seeing the last few days. The heat just shifts around a bit, gets hot in one area, then cools down slightly there but puts another part of the SE in the nasty heat. The GFS just looks downright ugly throughout the 16 day time frame. Nothing extreme but mid to upper 90's with a 100 here or there. If the 850 temps verify on the GFS the surface temps will likely verify. Yes, I agree that if those torrid 850's were to verify, the sfc highs would likely be in the upper 90's+. However, the gfs warm bias tells me they very likely won't as was the case this month. They've been off several degrees C (in some cases in forecasts for the very next day!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yes, I agree that if those torrid 850's were to verify, the sfc highs would likely be in the upper 90's+. However, the gfs warm bias tells me they very likely won't as was the case this month. They've been off several degrees C (in some cases in forecasts for the very next day!). I saw something completely crazy last week during the NE historic heat wave. The GFS missed very badly on the cool side for tons of cites up there.. It literally missed low by as much or more as it missed high earlier this month for KATL, and this was the day before!!! I did not log the data to get accurate numbers but it was puzzling. This was for surface temps, I can't say for sure if it missed 850's or not. The GFS is not doing very well this summer., I don't know if that's across the country or just the few location I'm watching. edit: The 0Z GFS continues the lol's. It basically just said TS Don? Where? Taking it in two days to almost nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 edit: The 0Z GFS continues the lol's. It basically just said TS Don? Where? Taking it in two days to almost nothing.... While I do not agree with the GFS on this, it isn't that farfetched. Don is a small, weak system that will need to keep the dry air at bay. Don is not out of the woods yet. Any changes to the forecasted shear environment would allow the dry air to fight a weak Don pretty successfully. I personally don't think it goes POOF, but it may prevent a hurricane from forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Brad Panovich was a great speaker. Great times. you folks really need to try to come out to these things. One year(I've been waiting the past 6 yrs) they will have the conference either earlier in the summer or later in the fall The end of the summer is always booked for me He is an honorary member of the DC clique, so he was representin them :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Return moisture on the way, rain just SW of Atlanta moving NE and looks like more forming further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 edit: The 0Z GFS continues the lol's. It basically just said TS Don? Where? Taking it in two days to almost nothing.... Not picking on you, really I'm not, but the GFS has vastly, and I mean VASTLY, improved in the tropical dept. Not saying it stays like this, but GFS smelled it first. http://www.americanw...__gopid__841917 See post #610 from Phil882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Not picking on you, really I'm not, but the GFS has vastly, and I mean VASTLY, improved in the tropical dept. Not saying it stays like this, but GFS smelled it first. http://www.americanw...__gopid__841917 See post #610 from Phil882 No I think civil disagreement is a good thing. I don't agree with the GFS it total, but the 0Z solution was extreme. Maybe it sees something everyone else is missing We shall see, I have never been on board with a big system from Don. I actually was on record saying I thought TD status would be it's max intensity very early on when Don was just a disorganized cluster of storms and an open wave. I thought the talk of Hurricanes and Dolly analogs were overboard too. We shall see, but my general point in that post you just quoted was the GFS has disappointed me very much recently this summer. I want to see how it performs this winter to make any final judgements but so far I'm not impressed. As for the tropical upgrades I have heard good things about it but nothing has impressed me yet. The tracks it had for Don have been whacky and not reasonable. It was taking Don into New Orleans over and over again shifting it south then dissipating it. Imo the GFS has not done that good with this system. Perhaps due to it's small size? idk enough about the model to make educated guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 No I think civil disagreement is a good thing. I don't agree with the GFS it total, but the 0Z solution was extreme. Maybe it sees something everyone else is missing We shall see, I have never been on board with a big system from Don. I actually was on record saying I thought TD status would be it's max intensity very early on when Don was just a disorganized cluster of storms and an open wave. I thought the talk of Hurricanes and Dolly analogs were overboard too. We shall see, but my general point in that post you just quoted was the GFS has disappointed me very much recently this summer. I want to see how it performs this winter to make any final judgements but so far I'm not impressed. As for the tropical upgrades I have heard good things about it but nothing has impressed me yet. The tracks it had for Don have been whacky and not reasonable. It was taking Don into New Orleans over and over again shifting it south then dissipating it. Imo the GFS has not done that good with this system. Perhaps due to it's small size? idk enough about the model to make educated guesses. Yeah, it's been all over the map with Don, but was good with Bret and Cindy. I think its best attribute is sniffing out storm formation more than track and intensity. It was a joke in all areas two years ago, but has picked up the pace. Maybe the small size of Don is an issue. Anyway, you're a good poster, and I appreciate your commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, it's been all over the map with Don, but was good with Bret and Cindy. I think its best attribute is sniffing out storm formation more than track and intensity. It was a joke in all areas two years ago, but has picked up the pace. Maybe the small size of Don is an issue. Anyway, you're a good poster, and I appreciate your commentary. Thanks! I've also enjoyed your posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Not picking on you, really I'm not, but the GFS has vastly, and I mean VASTLY, improved in the tropical dept. Not saying it stays like this, but GFS smelled it first. http://www.americanw...__gopid__841917 See post #610 from Phil882 Pretty sure it was the NOGAPS who sniffed out and stuck with developing Don first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm not sure what's going on today. All the precip today coming from the south has fizzed rapidly once it passes I-20. There appears to be more substantial rain and moisture heading up but that is confined to Alabama. Very pessimistic about rain today north of I-20. On a side note the 12Z GFS torches North Georgia with upper 90's to near 100 degree temps. This Saturday through next week into next Friday ish. Very high 850 and surface temps modeled, but we have been there and done that around north Georgia recently. If this verifies it will be a long painful stretch of very hot weather for us. I'll believe it when I see it but the runs should not be totally discounted as the GFS has been very persistent with this idea for almost a week now, waffling at times but in general the heat has shown up pretty consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Absolutely a beautiful sky today.....Tons of puffy white cumulus against a backdrop of caribbean blue. ....Awesome day....usually the sky looks like one big patch of haze this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 1.02" of rain today, total for the month is 5.86" I hate when it rains when I'm asleep. It must have rained early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Haven't had any substantial rain for a while, this is the brownest the grass has been all year. And the extreme heat doesn't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I forgot just how steamy it can get after it rains. That's the worst part about summer storms !! 87 degrees but it feels like 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm not sure what's going on today. All the precip today coming from the south has fizzed rapidly once it passes I-20. There appears to be more substantial rain and moisture heading up but that is confined to Alabama. Very pessimistic about rain today north of I-20. On a side note the 12Z GFS torches North Georgia with upper 90's to near 100 degree temps. This Saturday through next week into next Friday ish. Very high 850 and surface temps modeled, but we have been there and done that around north Georgia recently. If this verifies it will be a long painful stretch of very hot weather for us. I'll believe it when I see it but the runs should not be totally discounted as the GFS has been very persistent with this idea for almost a week now, waffling at times but in general the heat has shown up pretty consistently. Thinking the same thing, it's like it wanted to move north but just never got a push. And it was looking pretty promising for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm not sure what's going on today. All the precip today coming from the south has fizzed rapidly once it passes I-20. There appears to be more substantial rain and moisture heading up but that is confined to Alabama. Very pessimistic about rain today north of I-20. On a side note the 12Z GFS torches North Georgia with upper 90's to near 100 degree temps. This Saturday through next week into next Friday ish. Very high 850 and surface temps modeled, but we have been there and done that around north Georgia recently. If this verifies it will be a long painful stretch of very hot weather for us. I'll believe it when I see it but the runs should not be totally discounted as the GFS has been very persistent with this idea for almost a week now, waffling at times but in general the heat has shown up pretty consistently. Is that really realistic considering how much rain we've had lately ? The ground is so wet i have a hard time believing we'll see temps close to 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Is that really realistic considering how much rain we've had lately ? The ground is so wet i have a hard time believing we'll see temps close to 100. Rain is just one factor, also the rain has NOT been widespread. You have areas that have been very dry sprinkled in there. If we get the type of 850 temps that are modeled the sporadic wet grounds around won't save many areas from hitting the upper 90's to around 100. Of course this is not for all of north Georgia. Honestly it has not been that wet for most places, browse back a few pages and you will see people complaining about how dry it has been around here. There are some winners but there are quite a few big losers too. The moist ground also can only do so much, if you get enough other factors to come together that can easily be overcome, but again I don't really agree with you on the how wet it has been. The area around Carrollton has been pretty lucky and that might be skewing your idea of how wet it really has been. Even with my good rain earlier this week it had been dreadfully dry till then and I have not checked but I bet Cobb county is still below normal for rain along with many others. You also say you don't think we will see temps close to 100, well 93-94 is not that far off from 100 and many metro areas have been hitting that with no problem recently with much lower 850 temps. It is quite possible but like I said earlier the GFS has burned us before on this. I just have this sinking feeling that it is correct this time..... This is right about the time we climo wise start flirting with that century mark when it happens during a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Rain is just one factor, also the rain has NOT been widespread. You have areas that have been very dry sprinkled in there. If we get the type of 850 temps that are modeled the sporadic wet grounds around won't save many areas from hitting the upper 90's to around 100. Of course this is not for all of north Georgia. Honestly it has not been that wet for most places, browse back a few pages and you will see people complaining about how dry it has been around here. There are some winners but there are quite a few big losers too. The moist ground also can only do so much, if you get enough other factors to come together that can easily be overcome, but again I don't really agree with you on the how wet it has been. The area around Carrollton has been pretty lucky and that might be skewing your idea of how wet it really has been. Even with my good rain earlier this week it had been dreadfully dry till then and I have not checked but I bet Cobb county is still below normal for rain along with many others. You also say you don't think we will see temps close to 100, well 93-94 is not that far off from 100 and many metro areas have been hitting that with no problem recently with much lower 850 temps. It is quite possible but like I said earlier the GFS has burned us before on this. I just have this sinking feeling that it is correct this time..... This is right about the time we climo wise start flirting with that century mark when it happens during a summer. Lol, yeah I was complaining about how dry it had been up until 8 days ago. I had 0.37" from July 1-19 and from July 20-28 I've had 5.49". I wonder if the variation of precip distribution will mean that areas who have had more rain will be a little cooler than areas who have had less rain ? Or does it really make that big of a difference ? Also, I'm hoping that if we do get 95-100 temps that it is a dry heat. 95-100 with dp in the 50s or 60s would be a lot easier to handle. If i recall correctly, and I could be wrong, August 2007 was very hot but it seemed like the dp's were fairly tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Lol, yeah I was complaining about how dry it had been up until 8 days ago. I had 0.37" from July 1-19 and from July 20-28 I've had 5.49". I wonder if the variation of precip distribution will mean that areas who have had more rain will be a little cooler than areas who have had less rain ? Or does it really make that big of a difference ? Also, I'm hoping that if we do get 95-100 temps that it is a dry heat. 95-100 with dp in the 50s or 60s would be a lot easier to handle. If i recall correctly, and I could be wrong, August 2007 was very hot but it seemed like the dp's were fairly tolerable. I'm not sure on the first part of your question, a met could better answer that. The DP's will mix out it appears, it could be sticky in the early morning hours then the DP's should drop to the 60's in the peak heating of the day. All highly subject to change but that is what I'm seeing on these GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Having a nice little popup shower right now. The sun is shining and it's pouring outside. Looks like I'm going to finish this month well above normal with almost 6 inches of rain (1/3 of which fell in just a couple of hours on the 14th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Another nice little shower popped up over my house this evening. Total for the day = 1.30" Total for the month = 6.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 91L is looking better this morning. Maybe a SE coast threat later next week if everything comes together correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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