LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 But I am seeing more precip next week and I think the extra clouds and rain will help keep temperatures in the normal range for many in the southeast. I could possibly see that if the heights on the GFS are correct. Nothing too extreme and generally in the 590 range, no 595+ death ridge showing up next week but 850 temps are pretty high. You would think with that type of heat there would be a massive dome over us but it appears not. The GFS has been screwy this year so I would not doubt your conclusion but the GFS has been persistent in toying with the idea of some nasty heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The death ridge returneth... http://www.wral.com/.../story/9913841/ this looks wicked for central NC and probably the whole piedmont of the Carolinas. I don't think we'll have enough cirrus debris (unknown though) here and esp. in Raleigh, and the pockets of +24 are showing up, with the surface winds mostly westerly and downslope. GFS has some pockets of 105+ at the surface in RDU areas and just north of CLT, so thats indicative of pretty widespread 100+ at the surface in the whole piedmont of NC. If I were betting, I'd put the absolute highest temps around Cary and Durham and toward south central VA. where it may go to 105 or even 106. Needless to say, major heavy duty heat wave in the Carolinas. A touch cooler in GA and west of the Apps on this particular heat wave, except possibly eastern GA where 100 is possible. I haven't hit 100 (or anywhere in this county) yet, but this one probably will do it either Fri or Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 this looks wicked for central NC and probably the whole piedmont of the Carolinas. I don't think we'll have enough cirrus debris (unknown though) here and esp. in Raleigh, and the pockets of +24 are showing up, with the surface winds mostly westerly and downslope. GFS has some pockets of 105+ at the surface in RDU areas and just north of CLT, so thats indicative of pretty widespread 100+ at the surface in the whole piedmont of NC. If I were betting, I'd put the absolute highest temps around Cary and Durham and toward south central VA. where it may go to 105 or even 106. Needless to say, major heavy duty heat wave in the Carolinas. A touch cooler in GA and west of the Apps on this particular heat wave, except possibly eastern GA where 100 is possible. I haven't hit 100 (or anywhere in this county) yet, but this one probably will do it either Fri or Sat. The GFS and Euro parks a nasty ridge right over the Augusta area, just curious why do areas on the northeast side of that ridge heat up more than areas on the west side of it? It appears hot all around the Southeast this weekend but the heat does seem concentrated over the Carolinas. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The GFS and Euro parks a nasty ridge right over the Augusta area, just curious why do areas on the northeast side of that ridge heat up more than areas on the west side of it? It appears hot all around the Southeast this weekend but the heat does seem concentrated over the Carolinas. Why is that? the heat dome itself and highest 850s are over the piedmont of NC right around RDU. Throw in west winds and low soil moisture and no clouds, and thats why the GFS has 105 surface temps there. Think it was the Saturday map that had around 100 along interstate 85 from just about Athens to Greensboro and southside VA. The location of the surface and upper high, the forecast 850 temps and surface winds dictate how hot it gets. Areas of Alabama and GA looks like more southerly winds, more clouds and not quite so high of 850 temps. There could be massive subsidence somewhere in Ga that the models aren't seeing right now. Anywhere from Columbus to Macon to Athens or Augusta that could cause temps to go to 100 there as well, but its too iffy to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 the heat dome itself and highest 850s are over the piedmont of NC right around RDU. Throw in west winds and low soil moisture and no clouds, and thats why the GFS has 105 surface temps there. Think it was the Saturday map that had around 100 along interstate 85 from just about Athens to Greensboro and southside VA. The location of the surface and upper high, the forecast 850 temps and surface winds dictate how hot it gets. Areas of Alabama and GA looks like more southerly winds, more clouds and not quite so high of 850 temps. There could be massive subsidence somewhere in Ga that the models aren't seeing right now. Anywhere from Columbus to Macon to Athens or Augusta that could cause temps to go to 100 there as well, but its too iffy to forecast. Thanks! Your insight is much appreciated as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Did you know that August 2007 was the only time in the last 15 years that Greensboro and the Triad hit 100 degrees. August 2007 featured 5 amazing days at or above 100 degrees, including a record three days in a row! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Did you know that August 2007 was the only time in the last 15 years that Greensboro and the Triad hit 100 degrees. August 2007 featured 5 amazing days at or above 100 degrees, including a record three days in a row! I remember August 2007 here too, we hit 103 I think that year, and had an extended period of upper 90's to near 100 even in the Atlanta area. I remember the Lows were in the 80's during that period. yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 July 2011 in Dallas, TX - 25 straight days of 100+ temps. Low of 86 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I woke up this morning and went out on my deck. I looked up at the blue sky void of clouds and said, its gonna but hot.... Not even some high clouds out there this morning, it's gonna be upper 90's around here today... FFC says 96 but I would not be surprised if we go as high as 98 today. Most mornings this year there have been high clouds filtering the sun, well today no such luck. The only saving grace is it got down to 73 last night which will somewhat limit our highs...... btw for North Georgia the GFS won't let go of the idea of upper 90's to 100ish for an extended period starting beginning of next week/late this weekend. So likely the next few days will be the "cooler" ones for a while if the GFS is correct.... I'm hoping by "extended period" you mean 3 or 4 days instead of 3 or 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I remember August 2007 here too, we hit 103 I think that year, and had an extended period of upper 90's to near 100 even in the Atlanta area. I remember the Lows were in the 80's during that period. yuck. August can often be a very hot and dry month. I'm hoping this August is nothing like 2007 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The thing about August 2007 in NC and VA that was so remarkable is that up until the beginning of that month, it had been a cool summer. Suddenly, when August came in, summer roared in in the most historic ways and did not depart until early October. It was a late but potent heat display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm hoping by "extended period" you mean 3 or 4 days instead of 3 or 4 weeks. It is the long range GFS, it also does not have much other support. As Dacula said there might be chance of precip which would keep temps down. The Euro and GFS have the ridge departing by Monday or so of next week. What is clear is that we are gonna be 5+ or so degrees above normal from now until the end of the weekend or beginning of next week. After that things become more unclear. The GFS has been toying with a week + long heat wave for us though. Starting tomorrow/Friday and going on a week + after that. The Euro is much more tame though and after this weekend knocks us back to more normal temps. If I were a betting man I go with slightly above temps for the next week or two with possible upper 90's sprinkled in there. Nothing extreme but mid-upper 90's are no fun either. I think the average high for Atlanta this time of year is 89-91 ish so it's gonna still be hot just how hot I think is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Gotta be careful! http://www.aol.com/2011/07/27/britney-wehrle_n_910831.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Clouds have moved in, that will keep the temps down some here. The 98 I spoke of earlier is way out of reach now it seems. We will be lucky to hit 95 today with this much cloud cover. Maybe I can eek a storm out of these 20% pops today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 It is the long range GFS, it also does not have much other support. As Dacula said there might be chance of precip which would keep temps down. The Euro and GFS have the ridge departing by Monday or so of next week. What is clear is that we are gonna be 5+ or so degrees above normal from now until the end of the weekend or beginning of next week. After that things become more unclear. The GFS has been toying with a week + long heat wave for us though. Starting tomorrow/Friday and going on a week + after that. The Euro is much more tame though and after this weekend knocks us back to more normal temps. If I were a betting man I go with slightly above temps for the next week or two with possible upper 90's sprinkled in there. Nothing extreme but mid-upper 90's are no fun either. I think the average high for Atlanta this time of year is 89-91 ish so it's gonna still be hot just how hot I think is the question. Well lets think positive. We're at the hottest part of year so at least we've reached the peak and there will be a slow trend towards cooler weather in a couple weeks or so. Usually by the 2nd half of August we at least drop off a couple of degrees. And of course the later we go into summer the less intense the sun is so that is always a plus. Last September was very hot but much more tolerable than July and August in part due to the sun angle I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 You all should enjoy the heat while you have it. It's better than 0F temperatures and depressing conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Well lets think positive. We're at the hottest part of year so at least we've reached the peak and there will be a slow trend towards cooler weather in a couple weeks or so. Usually by the 2nd half of August we at least drop off a couple of degrees. And of course the later we go into summer the less intense the sun is so that is always a plus. Last September was very hot but much more tolerable than July and August in part due to the sun angle I think. Latest 12Z GFS run stays hot, this is becoming a trend I'm not fond of seeing the last few days. The heat just shifts around a bit, gets hot in one area, then cools down slightly there but puts another part of the SE in the nasty heat. The GFS just looks downright ugly throughout the 16 day time frame. Nothing extreme but mid to upper 90's with a 100 here or there. If the 850 temps verify on the GFS the surface temps will likely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Latest 12Z GFS run stays hot, this is becoming a trend I'm not fond of seeing the last few days. The heat just shifts around a bit, gets hot in one area, then cools down slightly there but puts another part of the SE in the nasty heat. The GFS just looks downright ugly throughout the 16 day time frame. Nothing extreme but mid to upper 90's with a 100 here or there. If the 850 temps verify on the GFS the surface temps will likely verify. It looks like we've been in the same repeating pattern for weeks now. The heart of the heat dome is in Texas and Ok, but it occasionally lurches toward the Southeast or MidAtlantic, then rolls under back toward the Gulf Coast and eventually ends up back in Tex/Ok. The exact same scenario is going to play out again. So my guess for the hot 100s on Friday will be in Upper SC to much of central piedmont of NC and southern VA, then on Saturday much of SC and central and eastern GA, as storms roll in from TN and NC on Saturday, possibly helping to shave off a couple degrees there. As always, any debris clouds will affect temps at the surface, and its impossible to forecast that too far in advance, but there will be some Tstorm activity in TN and Ala. esp on Friday, and again on Saturday even more as the next front comes at us "backdoor" style almost. It could actually be a lot cooler in part of NC Saturday or Sunday depending on when the storms arrive and if they develop into a huge mass or not. I wouldn't bank on it yet thats for sure. Then theres the slightest possibility of whatever remnants are left over from "Don" to roll around the Southeast ridge, but thats probably just a dream at this point. We need for the major ridge in the nations midsection to be gone for a while , and of course that would mean a huge change upstream, which isn't happening anytime soon. I still think mid to late August we get a major shakeup in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Texas may soon get drought relief from Tropical Depression 4!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 With Tropical Storm "Don" imminent, this would be some extremely good news for Texas...assuming it doesn't miss to the south. Ridging to the east should steer it basically toward the wstrn Gulf the next two days, while slowly strengthening. The rain there will help the feedback problem of drought-begats-drought syndrome and a ridge to the north may help stall out the moisture somewhat there, keeping a nice soupy wet atmosphere in place for some areas of Tx or La. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Latest 12Z GFS run stays hot, this is becoming a trend I'm not fond of seeing the last few days. The heat just shifts around a bit, gets hot in one area, then cools down slightly there but puts another part of the SE in the nasty heat. The GFS just looks downright ugly throughout the 16 day time frame. Nothing extreme but mid to upper 90's with a 100 here or there. If the 850 temps verify on the GFS the surface temps will likely verify. Well, it sucks that the heat seems so relentless this year, much like last year, but at the same time the hotter the summer is, the sweeter that first big cold front is in September If only we could fast forward about a month. In a typical year once we get past about August 15th then we have escaped the worst of summer. Last summer seemed to never end though. I'm just so ready for high temps in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and bright sunny skies and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TS Don has formed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Well, it sucks that the heat seems so relentless this year, much like last year, but at the same time the hotter the summer is, the sweeter that first big cold front is in September If only we could fast forward about a month. In a typical year once we get past about August 15th then we have escaped the worst of summer. Last summer seemed to never end though. I'm just so ready for high temps in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and bright sunny skies and low humidity. I love that first decent cold front. That is something I have enjoyed my whole life, it marks the true beginning of Fall for me and it is truly a joy. Some years it is kind of transitory and not really defined, I'm not a huge fan of that. I hope this year we get a good one early to relive that wonderful feeling. Walking outside and going "ahhh".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 My streak of 13 straight days <90 ended today....as expected. 90.8 was my high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The death ridge returneth... http://www.wral.com/.../story/9913841/ I don't think it ever left Glad you had fun representing the SE at the conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I love that first decent cold front. That is something I have enjoyed my whole life, it marks the true beginning of Fall for me and it is truly a joy. Some years it is kind of transitory and not really defined, I'm not a huge fan of that. I hope this year we get a good one early to relive that wonderful feeling. Walking outside and going "ahhh".... Gotta agree that first blast of really cool air will be welcome,its kinda like the first bottle of a icy cold beer after you've gotten all hot and sweaty you go ahhhh...man that is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Gotta agree that first blast of really cool air will be welcome,its kinda like the first bottle of a icy cold beer after you've gotten all hot and sweaty you go ahhhh...man that is good I can't wait until i can open the windows and let the fresh air in, instead of the a/c running full blast every day. Maybe we will get lucky in August and have a rare cool spell like we had in August 2004, anyone remember that ? I had lows near 50 in the middle of August !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't think it ever left Glad you had fun representing the SE at the conference Brad Panovich was a great speaker. Great times. you folks really need to try to come out to these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't think it ever left Glad you had fun representing the SE at the conference He is an honorary member of the DC clique, so he was representin them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well, got lucky Monday nite with a 30 minute rain.....got lucky again today with more rain ....pouring when I left for church....hit a dry spot out by the mall, pouring from the mall to church....when I parked the car, the rain stopped....wow! That was luck! As I was walking across the grass, I managed to step in numerous puddles up to my ankles....not so lucky....We really got blessed.....rain 2 out of the last 3 days.....Finally!.... And I'm wagering my bets on Sunday.....Pops may be 20-30%, but climatology says otherwise.....Sunday I will be 40....and somewhere around 80% or so of my birthdays it has rained....IMBY anyway....Mom said that there was a ferocious storm the nite I was born.....I had a heck of a storm on my 15th birthday.....Got learners permit, but did not get to drive to the skating rink that nite, bummer Did not even get to go skating period.....no power.....Storm brought down a very large tree in the yard....Anywho, Ever since I turned 15, I make it a point to see if it rains on my birthday.....and ever since then, there have been very few times it did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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