buckeyefan1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Summers continue to get hotter and winters are getting colder and snowier for the southeast.... Very odd combination. I wonder if something is contributing to this or if it is complete coincidence with the way weather patterns have shaped up the last couple years.... edit : I could go back and look but the past two winters have been near the top in terms of how cold it's been and the past two summers have also been way up on the hottest list... The year(+) of extremes.......the gift that keeps on giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 The year(+) of extremes.......the gift that keeps on giving lol, I hope it keeps giving come late fall and winter this year! I don't mind hot summers if they keep getting followed by cold and somewhat snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The most frustrating thing to watch is how nature can't get back to what it used to be for the Southeast...ie, daily afternoon storms and southerly flow at the surface and aloft, with a Bermuda ridge thats semi-permanent offshore, guiding in a lot of juicy air, and lower heights that allow storms to pop frequently everywhere. Matter of fact, we haven't had that kind of Summer in a very long time, probably have to go back to 2003 or so. Hard to imagine this considering what's happened the last 2 summers, but CLT only had 9 days of 90+ in 2003. The seasons have been living up to their definition over the past 2 years - hot summer, cold winter...and last fall and this past spring were awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The year(+) of extremes.......the gift that keeps on giving Georgia has definitely had its share of extremes the last 4 years. Extreme drought in 2007-2008, Extreme flooding in 2009, 2 of the coldest winters I ever remember, 2 of the hottest summers I ever remember.... Whatever happened to normal weather ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Little warm today 98.5 for a high so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm trying to figure out why I'm so much cooler than Atlanta. We've had partly cloudy skies all afternoon and it's 86 here and 92 in Atlanta. Could it be that all the rain I've had compared to Atlanta is one reason ? Fox 5 also shows that it is 86 where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A false 104 today at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Thats hard to say, so the safest bet is to lean toward persistence at this point. The pattern just keeps repeating. It starts with mega-ridging in Tex/Ok, and every few days to a week or so it lurches toward the Apps or upper Southeast or Midatlantic--basically shoots due east, then it rolls under and back west toward the southern Plains. This allows fronts to occasionally drop down back door style for the upper South , for example, this weekends front. Then we repeat the process, over and over. If it were continuous ridging, we'd all be having what much of Texas is, and thats pure unabated drought + well above normal highs. Atleast every so often these fronts generate a few storms in the SE, just not enough or widespread, and there are still places that continue to miss them. My hunch all along was sometime in August we'd get a major shift that shakes up the pattern, but thats all it is a hunch. The most frustrating thing to watch is how nature can't get back to what it used to be for the Southeast...ie, daily afternoon storms and southerly flow at the surface and aloft, with a Bermuda ridge thats semi-permanent offshore, guiding in a lot of juicy air, and lower heights that allow storms to pop frequently everywhere. Matter of fact, we haven't had that kind of Summer in a very long time, probably have to go back to 2003 or so. I'm really beginning to doubt we get in a good bermuda high pattern this summer. Seems like the drought conditions further out west are creating a feedback pattern and that is likely where the ridging will stay most of the time while shifting east periodically. At least this week the humidity has been held in check this week but this means less rain chances. In the last two days my lawn has turned from a lush green to having large patches of brown and I'm beginning to notice some of the trees around the area are showing signs of stress as well. Well see what happens with 91L next week. Sometimes a recurving TC can rearrange the pattern for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I'm really beginning to doubt we get in a good bermuda high pattern this summer. Seems like the drought conditions further out west are creating a feedback pattern and that is likely where the ridging will stay most of the time while shifting east periodically. At least this week the humidity has been held in check this week but this means less rain chances. In the last two days my lawn has turned from a lush green to having large patches of brown and I'm beginning to notice some of the trees around the area are showing signs of stress as well. Well see what happens with 91L next week. Sometimes a recurving TC can rearrange the pattern for awhile. Personally I hope 91L curves north and moves east of me and drags down cooler air like Charley did in August 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Thats hard to say, so the safest bet is to lean toward persistence at this point. The pattern just keeps repeating. It starts with mega-ridging in Tex/Ok, and every few days to a week or so it lurches toward the Apps or upper Southeast or Midatlantic--basically shoots due east, then it rolls under and back west toward the southern Plains. This allows fronts to occasionally drop down back door style for the upper South , for example, this weekends front. Then we repeat the process, over and over. If it were continuous ridging, we'd all be having what much of Texas is, and thats pure unabated drought + well above normal highs. Atleast every so often these fronts generate a few storms in the SE, just not enough or widespread, and there are still places that continue to miss them. My hunch all along was sometime in August we'd get a major shift that shakes up the pattern, but thats all it is a hunch. The most frustrating thing to watch is how nature can't get back to what it used to be for the Southeast...ie, daily afternoon storms and southerly flow at the surface and aloft, with a Bermuda ridge thats semi-permanent offshore, guiding in a lot of juicy air, and lower heights that allow storms to pop frequently everywhere. Matter of fact, we haven't had that kind of Summer in a very long time, probably have to go back to 2003 or so. Looks like CPC agrees... 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2011 THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY MEANS. ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO BE QUITE SMALL, BUT ARE CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVE AO/NAO. SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM NAEFS SUGGESTS A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG AN EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT THE MEAN LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THAT THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION WILL MOVE WITHIN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, PROBABILITY ANOMALIES FOR MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO REFLECT THESE UNCERTAINTIES. MODEL FORECASTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN, AND CENTRAL CONUS, HOWEVER NEGATIVE AO/NAO TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND GREAT LAKES, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS IS LOW. I'm just hoping we can get into some normal high temps by September. Maybe the tropics, as many say, can shake thinkgs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A false 104 today at RDU. Why false? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Why false? The sensor there tends to read high. It has been a controversy for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Maxed out at 102 here today and I believe that is the hottest its been so far at my house this month. Sure hope Saturday will not be a repeat or even hotter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Today's weather : Hi- 88 Lo-71 Current-85 Not bad for a late July day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 The setup on the 18Z GFS for All of north Georgia is downright ugly. All factors coming together for a scorching mid to late week next week. Not to forget it will also be quite hot this weekend around here, a long stretch of hot weather it appears. West winds, Heights pushing 595, 850 temps of 23 to as high as 25 degrees. Unreal setup that according to the GFS translates to low 100's for a few days in a row, completely ugly. Tuesday-Saturday looks terrible. I hope the GFS is wrong, but again it is very persistent and this is the first time other factors on a run have come together to make the surface temps more believable. It has been showing those temps for a while minus the heights and west winds, also looks devoid of any precip this time. This setup translates to those temps if it plays out the way the GFS says. KMGE KATL KCHA KMCN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The setup on the 18Z GFS for All of north Georgia is downright ugly. All factors coming together for a scorching mid to late week next week. Not to forget it will also be quite hot this weekend around here, a long stretch of hot weather it appears. West winds, Heights pushing 595, 850 temps of 23 to as high as 25 degrees. Unreal setup that according to the GFS translates to low 100's for a few days in a row, completely ugly. Tuesday-Saturday looks terrible. I hope the GFS is wrong, but again it is very persistent and this is the first time other factors on a run have come together to make the surface temps more believable. It has been showing those temps for a while minus the heights and west winds, also looks devoid of any precip this time. This setup translates to those temps if it plays out the way the GFS says. The GFS has had 850's of 23-25 C several times (I even saw 25.5-26 C) this month at KATL and they verified at only ~21-22 C. One run had KATL at an unreal 108 F at the surface just one or two days in advance!! So, several runs were a good bit hotter. Regardless, should the gfs blow it again, it will still be horrible with middle 90's being bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The GFS has had 850's of 23-25 C several times (I even saw 25.5-26 C) this month at KATL and they verified at only ~21-22 C. One run had KATL at an unreal 108 F at the surface just one or two days in advance!! So, several runs were a good bit hotter. Regardless, should the gfs blow it again, it will still be horrible with middle 90's being bad enough. Mid 90's won't be that bad if dp's can mix down into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The sensor there tends to read high. It has been a controversy for a long time. and yet the powers that be seem to ignore the persistently flukely high temps at RDU. has there ever been a formal investigation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The sensor there tends to read high. It has been a controversy for a long time. and yet the powers that be seem to ignore the persistently flukely high temps at RDU. has there ever been a formal investigation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 and yet the powers that be seem to ignore the persistently flukely high temps at RDU. has there ever been a formal investigation there? At the chance of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, they are quick to discount a record low. My example being the record low set at Rochelle, IL back in 2009 that would have set the all time record low for that state. I'm sure it does take a lot of money to up and move an entire ASOS station though and the NWS is on a tight budget as it is. Looks like I may make a run to hit 100 degrees IMBY today. Already running 3 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 and yet the powers that be seem to ignore the persistently flukely high temps at RDU. has there ever been a formal investigation there? The sensor is also consistent. A consistent record, to me, is more useful than one that's extremely accurate. If it's wildly off the mark, of course, it should be discounted. While Raleigh hit 104, Chapel Hill hit 102. So it's hardly measuring wildly hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I got somewhat lucky the other day and picked up 0.40 from the only small group of t-showers in the entire northern and central part of the state. Frustrating thing about it though is up to 1.5 inches fell only a couple of miles away and less. Yet another situation where a storm gets within shouting distance and misses me. That particular storm stayed completely stationary for an hour and in fact for about 20 minutes you could hear the heavy rain falling in the woods. It was that close. Once that storm started to weaken, I figured that was it but at the last possible moment and when all hope was lost, one popped up over me. Didn't last long but did manage an amount that is far better than nothing. I really need 3 or 4 inches in a short period of time to get the lakes back up to par. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Current Temp: 87 DP: 72 HI: 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 The GFS has had 850's of 23-25 C several times (I even saw 25.5-26 C) this month at KATL and they verified at only ~21-22 C. One run had KATL at an unreal 108 F at the surface just one or two days in advance!! So, several runs were a good bit hotter. Regardless, should the gfs blow it again, it will still be horrible with middle 90's being bad enough. 6Z GFS went back off the deep end. Shows temps of 100+ Monday - Friday, bumps 850's into the 25-26 degree range, maxes surface temps at 106 for Marietta on one of those days. Insane, Much, much less believable, 106 would likely be an all time record for KMGE. Takes Atlanta to 103 on day then 104 the next..... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Nice batch of rain moving out of Tennessee toward Georgia. Hoping it holds together today. PW values already 1.9" and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Just reached 91 degrees which was the forecasted high for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Interestingly, the 12zGFS is showing a cool down in the northern territories of Canada in the long term. I know that is of very little consequence to us here in the southern US. Maybe the first hints of fall for those folks. I have to admit that I'm a bit jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I got somewhat lucky the other day and picked up 0.40 from the only small group of t-showers in the entire northern and central part of the state. Frustrating thing about it though is up to 1.5 inches fell only a couple of miles away and less. Yet another situation where a storm gets within shouting distance and misses me. That particular storm stayed completely stationary for an hour and in fact for about 20 minutes you could hear the heavy rain falling in the woods. It was that close. Once that storm started to weaken, I figured that was it but at the last possible moment and when all hope was lost, one popped up over me. Didn't last long but did manage an amount that is far better than nothing. I really need 3 or 4 inches in a short period of time to get the lakes back up to par. With a nice low out in the Atlantic and another getting ready to come off Africa, it is getting to be time to hope for a nice TD to stall out over Ga. and swamp us I can take a fast moving, eroding hurricane coming up, but a cut off td meandering around for days would be oh, so nice. Here's hoping for a cool, wet end of summer for us. We need a state soaking system, not these pop ups that miss more than hit. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I am heading down to GA on Friday to visit the family!!!! Can y'all plllllllllllleeeeeeease turn down the heat and the turn off the sweat machines. I am not used to the humidity anymore...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I am heading down to GA on Friday to visit the family!!!! Can y'all plllllllllllleeeeeeease turn down the heat and the turn off the sweat machines. I am not used to the humidity anymore...lol Welcome back to the desert se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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