eyewall Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Obs: HELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Obs: HELL When did you move to CAE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 91L is looking better this morning. Maybe a SE coast threat later next week if everything comes together correctly. It is looking better overall and is in a relatively dangerous position with regard to becoming a later threat to the US based on historical tracks. With it still being a week away or more away, there's obviously no telling what 91L will do with regard to the SE coast. However, I have to agree with the model consensus that the SE coast is likely safe with the possible exception of the NC Outer banks and nearby areas. With an upper trough already just off the east coast, a weak trough projected to be over the eastern US, and no sfc high pressure projected to be over or near the NE US to block it, I feel that either the Gulf Coast of the US or MX gets a direct hit (and this is a real danger imo via a lower latitude track than projected by the consensus) or it recurves safely off the east coast. The only chance I see it affecting the bulk of the SE US would be from a recurve from the Gulf..but even that is quite unlikely based on the projected pattern. I do feel the east coast above FL will at least be threatened later this season by at least one hurricane as this is looking like a particularly dangerous season, but I doubt seriously it will be by 91L. So, I'm by no means "rainstorming" the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Most corn field around here are in terrible shape. Small stalks with just a withered ear or two of corn on them. Most are already browned out and dead. Starting to notice a few trees with pale leaves and a few that are actually turning yellow. Heres a pic of some corn in the area. This is a bad year for farmers here in the eastern 1/3 of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Most corn field around here are in terrible shape. Small stalks with just a withered ear or two of corn on them. Most are already browned out and dead. Starting to notice a few trees with pale leaves and a few that are actually turning yellow. Heres a pic of some corn in the area. This is a bad year for farmers here in the eastern 1/3 of the state. Looks like the corn here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 11am obs here on the sun....... 97F, when you walk outside it feels like satan farted in your face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 96 in DC at 11am. Vile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I have noticed that the NAO and AO are negative - the NAO has been for awhile. When do those two indices begin to impact sensible weather, late fall and/or winter? I did notice that the long term GFS is trying to bring the trough back into the east around August 5-8. The weather pattern seems to be similar to winter(though the opposite in terms of temps is happening) in that the pattern will simply not break...but when it does it may just be gone for good. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 100 at Raleigh, 97 at Smithfield at the 1:00 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 11am obs here on the sun....... 97F, when you walk outside it feels like satan farted in your face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 100 at Raleigh, 97 at Smithfield at the 1:00 hour. I may have some flawed temp data but I have NO trees in my yard so I run my sensor out away from my porch on a fishing pole and have it suspended roughly 4 feet over the yard in the shade between my house and my garage. I suspect I am getting radiant heat from either the house or the driveway cause it was reading 104.5 in the shade. Gonna wait another hour when there is no sun on that side of the house and check it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I have noticed that the NAO and AO are negative - the NAO has been for awhile. When do those two indices begin to impact sensible weather, late fall and/or winter? I did notice that the long term GFS is trying to bring the trough back into the east around August 5-8. The weather pattern seems to be similar to winter(though the opposite in terms of temps is happening) in that the pattern will simply not break...but when it does it may just be gone for good. Thoughts? 12z GFS at day 14. Looks even sharper at day 16. Just a dream right now, but this would give us highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 12z GFS at day 14. Looks even sharper at day 16. Just a dream right now, but this would give us highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. Very encouraging to see, but model porn at this point. I hope it continues to show this with future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
november rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 12z GFS at day 14. Looks even sharper at day 16. Just a dream right now, but this would give us highs in the 70s lows in the 50s. Looks like a picture from heaven, its good to see these type changes even if it does not play out it just gives one hope that the heat pump will eventually breakdown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevinhmd Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like a picture from heaven, its good to see these type changes even if it does not play out it just gives one hope that the heat pump will eventually breakdown... I really like the looks of that map! Wouldn't this also create an environment for sucking up a potential gulf tropical system into the southeast? Should any be developing there that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I really like the looks of that map! Wouldn't this also create an environment for sucking up a potential gulf tropical system into the southeast? Should any be developing there that is... *If* this were correct, it would keep the system over the fishies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Usually when a hurricane or strong enough TS gets to our latitude, it helps re-arrange the whole flow, atleast on this side of the globe. I've noticed a lot of times following a named storm, we get a push of much cooler air, or a decent airmass change, so this would fit the bill. Would be nice for it to not curve north first, just because we need the rain, but so far out anything can happen. We definitely don't need it to miss the gulf and Texas region entirely to the south, as that would do nothing to the ridging to the north, which is going to be around a while. It will come down to where the ridges and troughs are placed once the storm is in striking distance to the Southeast or Gulf coast, as to how it interacts with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well my sensor has been off the ground and in the shade for an hour now and it hasn't gone below 102. Its not too bad out actually because its not as humid as last weeks heat wave. Slightly drier air makes a difference it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well my sensor has been off the ground and in the shade for an hour now and it hasn't gone below 102. Its not too bad out actually because its not as humid as last weeks heat wave. Slightly drier air makes a difference it seems. Yep. It will take you at least 30 minutes longer to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A few days ago I thought today would be my day to hit 100 but its not happening. The GFS has been a few degrees too warm here on all the heatwaves this summer. I guess i'd rather bust that way. Currently 95, but I hit 96 an hour ago before more cumulus came in. Actually have some pretty low cumulus looks like its about to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 A few days ago I thought today would be my day to hit 100 but its not happening. The GFS has been a few degrees too warm here on all the heatwaves this summer. I guess i'd rather bust that way. Currently 95, but I hit 96 an hour ago before more cumulus came in. Actually have some pretty low cumulus looks like its about to rain. It seems that when it looks like its gonna hit in the upper 90's its stops in the 95-96 range. We definitely need some rain, grass is getting brown and crunchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Bob Ryan tweeted 20 minutes ago that DCA hit 104. RDU hit at least 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Currently 96 here (highest is 98). However, the temperature at the Gastonia Municipal Airport is recorded at 103.1! Not sure if that's correct but if it's an actual reading I'm surprised. It may just be the location of that area that's affecting the thermometer in such a way but still it's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It seems that when it looks like its gonna hit in the upper 90's its stops in the 95-96 range. We definitely need some rain, grass is getting brown and crunchy. our winds just havent been exactly right yet to do it. Plus we need a hardcore 594 ridge centered on the TN/NC border with +24 at 850. Our winds are just mostly westerly. Our 925 and 850 temps are a couple degrees cooler © than places to our northeast, which has happened a lot this Summer and explains why Raleigh keeps hitting 100 and we stop around 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The temp here has still not gone below 102 for the last 2 hours. I hope 91L makes it here with some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Currently 96 here (highest is 98). However, the temperature at the Gastonia Municipal Airport is recorded at 103.1! Not sure if that's correct but if it's an actual reading I'm surprised. It may just be the location of that area that's affecting the thermometer in such a way but still it's ridiculous. I just checked it and the highest I saw was 96.1 I know the 103 would be an error, if it was on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I just checked it and the highest I saw was 96.1 I know the 103 would be an error, if it was on there. I posted some questions earlier in the thread and would be interested in you thoughts. When do you think this pattern (massive ridge in the east) will break for good? Are we talking climate at this point - i.e. eventually it will be fall....or does this pattern break towards and early fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Taken from wxbrad's Google+ page So much for me thinking it couldn't get worse than last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Taken from wxbrad's Google+ page So much for me thinking it couldn't get worse than last year Summers continue to get hotter and winters are getting colder and snowier for the southeast.... Very odd combination. I wonder if something is contributing to this or if it is complete coincidence with the way weather patterns have shaped up the last couple years.... edit : I could go back and look but the past two winters have been near the top in terms of how cold it's been and the past two summers have also been way up on the hottest list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I posted some questions earlier in the thread and would be interested in you thoughts. When do you think this pattern (massive ridge in the east) will break for good? Are we talking climate at this point - i.e. eventually it will be fall....or does this pattern break towards and early fall? Thats hard to say, so the safest bet is to lean toward persistence at this point. The pattern just keeps repeating. It starts with mega-ridging in Tex/Ok, and every few days to a week or so it lurches toward the Apps or upper Southeast or Midatlantic--basically shoots due east, then it rolls under and back west toward the southern Plains. This allows fronts to occasionally drop down back door style for the upper South , for example, this weekends front. Then we repeat the process, over and over. If it were continuous ridging, we'd all be having what much of Texas is, and thats pure unabated drought + well above normal highs. Atleast every so often these fronts generate a few storms in the SE, just not enough or widespread, and there are still places that continue to miss them. My hunch all along was sometime in August we'd get a major shift that shakes up the pattern, but thats all it is a hunch. The most frustrating thing to watch is how nature can't get back to what it used to be for the Southeast...ie, daily afternoon storms and southerly flow at the surface and aloft, with a Bermuda ridge thats semi-permanent offshore, guiding in a lot of juicy air, and lower heights that allow storms to pop frequently everywhere. Matter of fact, we haven't had that kind of Summer in a very long time, probably have to go back to 2003 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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