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Tropical Depression Don


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Looping the visible for the last 6 hours demonstrates just how incredible the symmetry is with this system....all 4 quads have convective banding elements feeding into the system, certainly injecting all sorts of cyclonic vorticity at the lower levels. We may see this ramp up quite quickly.

I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed.

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One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico.

This thing is midget sized.

Microcanes as Josh calls them. They're the exact kind of storms that global models miss. Felix and Humberto are good examples. GFS and EURO have had resolution increases since then but it may still be too small and the HWRF maybe closer to the truth for once.

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I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed.

Could end up like Bret where they don't upgrade until Recon goes in. There are alot of buoys and coastal obs in this area to help clarify TD status.

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Could end up like Bret where they don't upgrade until Recon goes in. There alot of buoys and coastal obs in this area to help clarify TD status.

No, I don't think so. By the time recon arrives, it will be quite evident it's a tropical cyclone... a TS at that probably. Also, with Bret, there was the question of how tropical was it.

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If this ends up panning out like a lot of you guys think then big props to Phil for staying on board with this thing. I think there may have been one or two others in the camp but he sticks out as one who never let go of this thing. Looks like you are going to end up with a very nice call Phil, well done, sorry I doubted you.

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Looks to me like the LLC may be a bit east of the convective blob where the mid-level spinning can be seen. What do you think?

UWisc analyses have shown the low level vorticity always west of the mid level vorticity... the latest one have the better vertical alignment, but it still has the mid level vorticity a tad east... and looking at the vis, you can see the puffing trail of some of the cloud tops doing what one would expect on a vertically stacked cyclone with converging low level flow (in the link, see the puffing trail moving south then turning SE on the west side of the convective blob). I think the LLC is below the main convection and pretty much aligned with the mid level vortex.... but I'm no expert, I only play one on the weather boards :P

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Only 40%.

arrowheadsmiley.png

HOWEVER...SURFACEOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSEDCIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico.

This thing is midget sized.

Not to clog up the thread even more with marco posts but...

2r2m04p.jpg

If this ends up panning out like a lot of you guys think then big props to Phil for staying on board with this thing. I think there may have been one or two others in the camp but he sticks out as one who never let go of this thing. Looks like you are going to end up with a very nice call Phil, well done, sorry I doubted you.

Haha thanks for the kind words, but it hasn't developed quite yet, and I surely wasn't the only one that recognized its potential. Needless to say, I'm glad that it seems my somewhat bullish post last night is panning out pretty well thus far. weight_lift.gif

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