Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Looping the visible for the last 6 hours demonstrates just how incredible the symmetry is with this system....all 4 quads have convective banding elements feeding into the system, certainly injecting all sorts of cyclonic vorticity at the lower levels. We may see this ramp up quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Looping the visible for the last 6 hours demonstrates just how incredible the symmetry is with this system....all 4 quads have convective banding elements feeding into the system, certainly injecting all sorts of cyclonic vorticity at the lower levels. We may see this ramp up quite quickly. I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. Microcanes as Josh calls them. They're the exact kind of storms that global models miss. Felix and Humberto are good examples. GFS and EURO have had resolution increases since then but it may still be too small and the HWRF maybe closer to the truth for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed. Could end up like Bret where they don't upgrade until Recon goes in. There are alot of buoys and coastal obs in this area to help clarify TD status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Could end up like Bret where they don't upgrade until Recon goes in. There alot of buoys and coastal obs in this area to help clarify TD status. No, I don't think so. By the time recon arrives, it will be quite evident it's a tropical cyclone... a TS at that probably. Also, with Bret, there was the question of how tropical was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed. Yeah, this thing has to be a cherry at 8. Really lookin' good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If this ends up panning out like a lot of you guys think then big props to Phil for staying on board with this thing. I think there may have been one or two others in the camp but he sticks out as one who never let go of this thing. Looks like you are going to end up with a very nice call Phil, well done, sorry I doubted you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 90L still needs a little work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. I see you like to go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Impressive banding on the radar images out of Cuba. Might already be approaching TC status, but it's certainly best to see if this holds up overnight for the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I agree.... incredible that it's still a 30% mandarine. The NHC won't go directly to TD @8:00, they'll wait one more cycle, but a cherry is almost guaranteed. Looks to me like the LLC may be a bit east of the convective blob where the mid-level spinning can be seen. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. Marco 2008 is the smallest TC ever recorded in the GOM or wherever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Impressive banding on the radar images out of Cuba. Might already be approaching TC status, but it's certainly best to see if this holds up overnight for the NHC. It'll make for a more interesting flight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Looks to me like the LLC may be a bit east of the convective blob where the mid-level spinning can be seen. What do you think? UWisc analyses have shown the low level vorticity always west of the mid level vorticity... the latest one have the better vertical alignment, but it still has the mid level vorticity a tad east... and looking at the vis, you can see the puffing trail of some of the cloud tops doing what one would expect on a vertically stacked cyclone with converging low level flow (in the link, see the puffing trail moving south then turning SE on the west side of the convective blob). I think the LLC is below the main convection and pretty much aligned with the mid level vortex.... but I'm no expert, I only play one on the weather boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 40% at 8 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Only 40%. HOWEVER...SURFACEOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSEDCIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Mandarin just to F with the know it alls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Mandarin just to F with the know it alls. They're not gonna declare it without recon anyways so might as well slowly ramp this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. That's not midget sized. This is midget size: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 One of the smart people want to inform us on the smallest TC ever to make the Gulf of Mexico. This thing is midget sized. Not to clog up the thread even more with marco posts but... If this ends up panning out like a lot of you guys think then big props to Phil for staying on board with this thing. I think there may have been one or two others in the camp but he sticks out as one who never let go of this thing. Looks like you are going to end up with a very nice call Phil, well done, sorry I doubted you. Haha thanks for the kind words, but it hasn't developed quite yet, and I surely wasn't the only one that recognized its potential. Needless to say, I'm glad that it seems my somewhat bullish post last night is panning out pretty well thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 18Z GFS Hmm... That is a bit surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 35 knots? Confined to a thunderstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like a ship ob? If so, it isn't that surprising to get 35 kt winds in a thunderstorm over open water at the height of ship observation equipment (which is well above 10 m usually). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Shear in the NE Gulf will need to subside for any meaningful development...maybe RECON will find a TD… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I agree. Shear has increased somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.