LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Cory and I are testing the BASTARD/Kestrel setup right now! So, what's the story? Where's it going and how strong? We want the definitive forecast, please. P.S. Lake Effect King's is kinda hawt. The thing that stuck out at me this morning was the evidence of banded convection admidst a very cyclonic circular signature in the mid levels...and a system that has that kind of look to it, at this very early stage of formation, has quite a headstart for overcoming any minor negative influences. And when the ship came in with a 25kt west wind (which upon careful scrutiny of the vis this morning seemed plausible) my "alert" was already in full mode. The models the last day and a half have done an about face with regard to the environment over the GOM. This will be a "nice" storm for enthusiasts like ourselves, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 T1.0 from TAFB at 1745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 AMSU derived wind field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Cory and I are testing the BASTARD/Kestrel setup right now! So, what's the story? Where's it going and how strong? We want the definitive forecast, please. P.S. Lake Effect King's is kinda hawt. ...and conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ...and conservative You're a total troll. I'm sitting here with Cory, and we don't appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 You're a total troll. I'm sitting here with Cory, and we don't appreciate it. I curse you with a last minute border flipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I'm thinkiing the small size will make it easier to speed up those winds... needs to overcome some land interaction with the hilly western tip of Cuba tonight (Pinar del Rio's highest point is 700m/2200ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 http://www.americanw...post__p__836745 That's quite a bullish forecast you got there... I'm wondering if it might be a touch on the slow side though, since the vast majority of the model guidance shows landfall before 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Not bad for an invest that was deactivated yesterday and was near 0% some hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 ...and conservative Not conservative at the time of production. That said, the overall "feel" is that the models are in catch-up mode....but as pointed out earlier, we may have a bit of mid-level dry air burping to do as it transverses the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Not conservative at the time of production. That said, the overall "feel" is that the models are in catch-up mode....but as pointed out earlier, we may have a bit of mid-level dry air burping to do as it transverses the GOM. I know, I was trolling Josh.... but if the ball starts rolling fast before entering the GOM, and taking into account the small size of the system... oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 That's quite a bullish forecast you got there... I'm wondering if it might be a touch on the slow side though, since the vast majority of the model guidance shows landfall before 96 hours. Most of my bullish calls over the last 6 years have panned out pretty well. With the historical preservation of data that is so readily available to us today, we can go back and observe many storms at all stages of development and/or intensification periods. The environment progged is far from perfect, however, is certainly not super restrictive. As for the speed, I am more of the thinking that our system will be in constant slow organization/intensification mode for quite some time. And more "intense" than what I suspect the track models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 How about a Celia analog to spice the thread up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Could be a fun DMAX if this holds up those -70C tops through DMIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Most of my bullish calls over the last 6 years have panned out pretty well. With the historical preservation of data that is so readily available to us today, we can go back and observe many storms at all stages of development and/or intensification periods. The environment progged is far from perfect, however, is certainly not super restrictive. As for the speed, I am more of the thinking that our system will be in constant slow organization/intensification mode for quite some time. And more "intense" than what I suspect the track models are depicting. For the record I like your forecast, I just thought I likely wouldn't have the guts to call a 85 knot hurricane from a system that is not even a depression yet. However, if the faster forward motion verifies, which would be steered by the relatively brisk 200mb flow, I'd say a lower intensity closer to what you have in your 72 hour forecast would be more likely. Just my opinion, as we are certainly entitled to our own forecasts The inner weenie in me would love to see a verification on the higher side though of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 For the record I like your forecast, I just thought I likely wouldn't have the guts to call a 85 knot hurricane from a system that is not even a depression yet. However, if the faster forward motion verifies, which would be steered by the relatively brisk 200mb flow, I'd say a lower intensity closer to what you have in your 72 hour forecast would be more likely. Just my opinion, as we are certainly entitled to our own forecasts The inner weenie in me would love to see a verification on the higher side though of course If things continue to progress above my expectations (as they have, it appears, this afternoon), then my 2nd call after declaration of a TC, may do more than just satisfy your weenie....or Josh's for that matter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Has anyone politely asked for the AmWx WRF to be run centered in the SE Gulf/Yucatan Channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Ha... just found out my cousin is in Corpus with the Navy... I went ahead and warned him ahead of time... even though this has border written all over it (doesn't every storm, though?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Another thing that is interesting to watch with this system... and should be kept in mind... is the very small size of it (going back to even the model projections back when it was east of the islands). This will absolutely be subject to rapid fluctuations in intensity... again dependent on that TUTT to its west... but it could easily become one of Josh's favorites in terms of microcaneyness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... The model consensus is well west of New Orleans, and takes it into E Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Can I repost this in 3 days?? HWRF has made some pretty big improvements in the last couple years. It has toned WAY down on it's supercane progs. That said, I made my forecast BEFORE this run came out, so I'm a bit biased that a model followed my thinking! Sure (If you're correct) . I'm just skeptical that 90L will become a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane. I'll make sure to give you major props if it does become one though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Light winds switching back and forth between east and west at buoy 42056, just the last hour (Times CDT) 3:50 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 0.4 kts 3:40 pm W ( 278 deg ) 2.5 kts 3:30 pm WNW ( 295 deg ) 2.7 kts 3:20 pm NW ( 307 deg ) 3.9 kts 3:10 pm ESE ( 104 deg ) 1.6 kts 3:00 pm E ( 80 deg ) 6.0 kts In an important location to watch for a developing surface circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Wow, the evolution of this thing over the past 24 hours has been remarkable. Some of the low clouds on the SW side are starting to get sucked in...they certainly have already from a storm-relative standpoint. This should be at least a TD by this time tomorrow. As far as landfall intensity is concerned, my range is between strong TS and moderate Cat 2, with Cat 1 being the most likely scenario. Main concerns in the Gulf are possible easterly shear and dry air intrusion. I don't think the upper-ridge is going to be amplified enough to cause too much easterly shear though, and the TC itself will be moving along at a pretty decent clip as well. There is a patch of dry air to the east of the system currently and that'll have to be watched. Overall though, conditions look favorable for gradual intensification in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 TCU suggest 90L is primed for DMAX later... Should be a fun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Broad rotation at the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Broad rotation at the mid levels A hair west of 21N 84W possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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