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Tropical Depression Don


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Exactly. As well as global models having a difficult time to get a good grip of it. Not impying that it will burst into a powerful microcane, but saying that even some explosive development is not out of the realm of possibility. The good thing is that the TUTT spun off it's tail end in the BoC, which will be slowly retrograding, leaving a better upper level environment in the GOM.

This was exactly what I was going to write before I saw your comment. This is on a much smaller size scale than Arlene, and we are dealing with just as much time if not more than that system. There is certainly potential with this system.

Here is an interesting TCG analog (not for track).

Bonnie 2004... for those that don't remember it became TD#2 just before crossing the Lesser Antilles before falling apart back into a wave and moving across the Caribbean without much fanfare before becoming a strong tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico very quickly. Invest 90L has taken an eerily similar track thus far.

ka47j8.jpg

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I'm so not on board with development of this thing. Even once in the gulf I doubt it has much of a chance, it will be clicking along pretty good on forward speed and it's not gonna dilly dally around the GoM. This thing is on life support now, not even a slight spin to it at all. My prediction this thing get to TD status at most before landfall in the GoM and even that is a long shot imo. How do you get Dolly 2008 analog from this thing anyways. I went and looked up Dolly and nothing about this system really makes me think Dolly. This thing is DoA, I can see some enhancing rains I'm sure but a Cat 2 Hurricane I think not.

Actually this is looking very similar to Dolly 2008.This is the point that dolly starting ramping up. Except dolly was a tropical storm at landfall in the yucatan. Wind shear will be low and SST are much warmer than when dolly got into the gulf. This is a smaller system so it can wrap up just as fast as dolly.JMO
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While there is some dry air over the Gulf, TPW images and water vapor loops indicate 90L may be associated with enough of an envelope of increased moisture that combined with the small size of the system may cause dry air to be less of a problem than it could be:

post-525-0-79412600-1311693921.gif

Also, over the past couple days into last night it looked like the thunderstorms the system was generating were spitting out outflow boundaries. I don't notice this today, which may show the system is not ingesting as much dry air. The thunderstorms are also a ton more consolidated now than 24 hours ago.

Based on the low level cloud motions that can be seen on visible loops, it still looks like 90L is associated with a sharp wave axis with no evidence of north or west winds in the lower levels, so this still has a little ways to go before being classified. Although if we see thunderstorms persist through today, the diurnal max tonight could be fun.

post-525-0-51451600-1311694434.jpg

This system is also doing an amazing job of splitting the stronger shear. Given the low shear environment it is in and the potential for outflow channels to develop in the coming days given the stronger upper level winds to the north and south of the invest, this system should be go for development assuming dry air isn't too big of an issue, which it may not be:

post-525-0-54586800-1311694659.gif

Right now I would say there is a 60% chance for development into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, given the rapid organization and favorable environmental conditions we are seeing today, save some large scale downward motion over the Atlantic due to the MJO which isn't hindering thunderstorms at the moment.

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Organization is still improving, and it looks like some banding is developing. Convection is meager, but it's healthy and shear is low. Good outflow in the N and E quads. This is a mandarine, and pushing for a cherry, probably.

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Organization is still improving, and it looks like some banding is developing. Convection is meager, but it's healthy and shear is low. Good outflow in the N and E quads. This is a mandarine, and pushing for a cherry, probably.

I'm in a bit more agressive camp with this, and from scanning through the latest models and noting the much improved banding as of late, I think there is a better than 50% chance of us seeing our first 'cane this year with 90L. Map later.

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Yeah, yeah, it's AMSU. Interesting dark spot south of the Isle of Youth.

20110726.1500.metopa.x.89_1deg.90LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-200N-830W.95pc.jpg

Land shadow :P ... it's an artifact mostly...but theres some dark just to the SE of the darker spot, which corresponds nicely with the possible visible LLC.

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The Isle of Youth radar is broken.

But this should just get better as 90L approaches.

URL is funky, doesn't paste as a link because of gaps...

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

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Yep, this is likely to develop into the next Atlantic TC, and possibly within the next 48 hours (much to my surprise). I'd probably give it a 50% chance over the next 48, and that may be conservative. This really didn't look like much as late as yesterday, and the transformation over the last day has been pretty remarkable. The overall organization still leaves a lot to be desired, as the vortex doesn't look to be vertically-stacked. However, this has a pretty good upper-level environment ahead of it with plenty of upper-ocean heat content. It's surprising that this lacks any model support, but the satellite trends are pointing towards TC genesis and that's hard to argue with at this point.

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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A

COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE

SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL

SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Tomorrow looks like a fun day...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 27/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST

C. 27/1530Z

D. 22.0N 87.0W

E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES

AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

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just took a quick look, I think 90L's future looks very promising. it has a solid window of time with low vertical shear. Upper low east of Florida is providing a beautiful outflow channel to the NNE of the storm. And the latest satellite presentation speaks for itself. Clear banding features have developed

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That 25 knot westerly wind is what has my interest... is that a buoy ob? Looking at all the reliable evidence, this is likely on its way to becoming a TD, maybe in the next 24 hours or so.

Based on the motion of the low-level clouds, I find that ob very suspect. Things are definitely heading in the right direction though.

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