phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Things are certainly starting to look interesting again... The 200mb flow looks rather favorable as on the most recent 00z GFS, and if those easterly winds aloft verify, most of the "dry" air in the Gulf of Mexico won't really be advected into the circulation and it should maintain its moist canopy over the vorticity currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Things are certainly starting to look interesting again... The 200mb flow looks rather favorable as on the most recent 00z GFS, and if those easterly winds aloft verify, most of the "dry" air in the Gulf of Mexico won't really be advected into the circulation and it should maintain its moist canopy over the vorticity currently. I still think this thing has little chance of amounting to much. Just curious.... What do you feel is the max intensity this thing could get to? It just does not seem like it will have enough time to get it's act together first , then intensify into anything substantial. As I said before I can see some mild organization but in the end I think this runs out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Since the 00z suite was a bit aggressive, it will be interesting to see what they amount to for the 6z. Consensus showed a US/MX border "landfall" in about four days. Could be another interesting, small system if it can get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I still think this thing has little chance of amounting to much. Just curious.... What do you feel is the max intensity this thing could get to? It just does not seem like it will have enough time to get it's act together first , then intensify into anything substantial. As I said before I can see some mild organization but in the end I think this runs out of time. Well at this point it has plenty of time to get its act together... around 72-96 hours if you want to believe the GFS expected forward motion. While this disturbance may have not looked that impressive over the past 24 hours, its becoming more evident that the forecast conditions over the next 24-48 hours are becoming increasingly more favorable. That map I showed above shows evidence of poleward and equatorward outflow developing on a global model, which is usually a sign of a developing tropical cyclone when coupled with significant vorticity. At this current time, the gfs is showing a pretty small vorticity signature, which means we likely won't be seeing a large sprawling mess we saw with Arlene earlier in the season. Overall, I don't want to place any forecast on intensity until something actually develops, but I'm certainly not ruling out a significant system, because if this thing can get going in the next 24 hours (which is possible given the improving IR presentation tonight), the conditions are ripe for intensification imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 00Z RGEM 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Midget TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Here are some of my morning thoughts... I'm growing more optimistic for development, despite the latest ECWMF coming in looking pretty bearish. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/invest-90l-hanging-on-still-has-the-potential-to-become-a-tropical-cyclone-in-the-gulf-of-mexico/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Great job Phil. 850vort has made a significant improvement over the past 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Models are looking good, both with regard to track and intensity. Me likey: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Probably the best the invest has looked since it was a 30% tangerine back over the eastern Caribbean. I still remain modestly optimistic about development chances for this system over the Gulf. I was personally not expecting any sort of tropicalcyclonegenesis until Wednesday at the earlist. Right now I still feel comfortable with that. While convection is the most intense and consolidated since at least two days ago and possibly the best it has looked since this system was named an invest, right now there is no convincing evidence of a surface circulation (although the mid level rotation has definitely become better defined), so I have a feeling this will take at least 24 hours to get the well defined surface circulation needed for the invest to be declared a depression. The invest does look to be splitting the strongest shear however, and looks to be in a marginal to good environment for development with some modest dry air to worry about from here on out: The TUTT over the southwestern Gulf will have to continue retrograding for significant development to occur, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 A very weak circulation may be forming according to meso-analysis. (BTW, I know who posts my images on others boards, so don't do it! ) Might see "orange" later today... FINE resolution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 A very weak circulation appears to be forming according to meso-analysis. Might see "orange" later today... dtk, if you're around, how useful is the NAM RUC initialization here at diagnosing the surface wind vectors? My gut says probably not much, but I honestly don't know. EDIT: I don't think it matters much either way, but it's the RUC not the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 dtk, if you're around, how useful is the NAM initialization here at diagnosing the surface wind vectors? My gut says probably not much, but I honestly don't know. It's actually the RUC, so it's pretty high-grade stuff. It actually matches up with the surface-obs quite nicely. If anything, it maybe a tad loose on the circulation in the NW quad. By the way, I would never use the NAM on here. That's just beggin' for a weenie stamp on my forehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 It's actually the RUC, so it's pretty high-grade stuff. It actually matches up with the surface-obs quite nicely. If anything, it maybe a tad loose on the circulation in the NW quad. Right, but it's still an interpolated grid point model. There's obviously no observations of a closed circulation. So exactly is causing that initialization? It could be a bogussed vortex for all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Right, but it's still an interpolated grid point model. There's obviously no observations of a closed circulation. So exactly is causing that initialization? It could be a bogussed vortex for all I know. Could be. Personally, I'd wait for at least 7-10 updates showing the vortex before I started to really consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I hope I am so wrong about this after trolling Steve about it in person That was punishing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 (BTW, I know who posts my images on others boards, so don't do it! ) Might see "orange" later today... Ahem. That happens to me all the time. I will agree with a tangerine possibility this evening or tomorrow. The RUC may not be the best example by the way. We are still in the deep tropics… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Home made NASA satellite loop of 90L. If it can strengthen some but not too much, it should really enhance rain chances late week/early weekend. Glass quarter full optimistic on meaningul rain. For quick reference, 90L and my backyard. CIMSS mean layer wind analysis, weaker comes closer to my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Hah...SHIP suggests a 38kt storm in 24 hours and a 78kt cyclone in 120... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Although it doesn't have much global model support, an upgrade to kumquat status looks increasingly likely for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Well at this point it has plenty of time to get its act together... around 72-96 hours if you want to believe the GFS expected forward motion. While this disturbance may have not looked that impressive over the past 24 hours, its becoming more evident that the forecast conditions over the next 24-48 hours are becoming increasingly more favorable. That map I showed above shows evidence of poleward and equatorward outflow developing on a global model, which is usually a sign of a developing tropical cyclone when coupled with significant vorticity. At this current time, the gfs is showing a pretty small vorticity signature, which means we likely won't be seeing a large sprawling mess we saw with Arlene earlier in the season. Overall, I don't want to place any forecast on intensity until something actually develops, but I'm certainly not ruling out a significant system, because if this thing can get going in the next 24 hours (which is possible given the improving IR presentation tonight), the conditions are ripe for intensification imo. I respect your analysis very much Phil, you are a gem to have in our Southeast forums. You have much more meteorological knowledge than I do. But, I really disagree with you. I'm not denying that conditions are favorable. As I said before I don't doubt it has time to get it's act together ie. Organized TC Depression. What I do doubt is that it has time to do that and intensify into anything substantial. I would LOVE to see a TC in the GoM but the clock is seriously ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Hurricane Hunters may fly tommorrow. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT TUE 26 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-056 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 27/1800Z B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST C. 27/1530Z D. 22.0N 87.0W E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Although it doesn't have much global model support, an upgrade to kumquat status looks increasingly likely for today. The current GFS run is certainly interesting. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation I'm surprised how fast this is organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The current GFS run is certainly interesting. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation I'm surprised how fast this is organizing. If this thing develops into a TC, it will be a lot different than Arlene was wrt to moisture shield. With Arlene, there was a favorable planetary wave, with very high PWs and a huge moisture envelope and broad upper level support. This time, we are in the subsident phases of the MJO, with limited PWs and narrow upper air support... which could bring us a micro cyclone...if it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If this continues to organize this morning, I find it a bit odd that another storm was missed by the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12Z SYNOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If this thing develops into a TC, it will be a lot different than Arlene was wrt to moisture shield. With Arlene, there was a favorable planetary wave, with very high PWs and a huge moisture envelope and broad upper level support. This time, we are in the subsident phases of the MJO, with limited PWs and narrow upper air support... which could bring us a micro cyclone...if it develops. That's a good point. It already has that micro look to it. The fact that it's confined and not sprawling may lead to faster development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 That's a good point. It already has that micro look to it. The fact that it's confined and not sprawling may lead to faster development. Exactly. As well as global models having a difficult time to get a good grip of it. Not impying that it will burst into a powerful microcane, but saying that even some explosive development is not out of the realm of possibility. The good thing is that the TUTT spun off it's tail end in the BoC, which will be slowly retrograding, leaving a better upper level environment in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 NAM 12Z picked up on the tropical entity, albeit weak. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_ref_078l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_078l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_078l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.