dan88 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 000WTNT44 KNHC 300834 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011 THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A RAINFALL THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There was no TC at landfall, hopefully the NHC does the right thing in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Wow that was bizare. Dry air had always been Don's nemesis but I don't think I've ever seen a tropical cyclone collapse that fast before. Perhaps that final attempt at a center relocation made Don's vorticity weaker for a time, and the advection of dry air from the land literally killed it. The storm total radar image is pretty telling above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Thunder and rain here. Don is no longer a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Thunder and rain here. Don is no longer a bust well, there's one happy customer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 when the ocean and atmosphere work together, we get these amazing storms called tropical cyclones...In Don's case, the 30-31C water temps created a favorable environment, but the atmosphere was never on board...as soon as Don made landfall it was all over... here's one for the tropi-weenies...maybe there is something to be said about the power of wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 That advisory is hilarious. I had not been paying much attention to the "storm" but one of the local TV mets (Boston area) mentioned how he had never seen a system dissapate like that before. Then I read Blake's advisory "The Don is Dead" Instant classic Too bad for TX, though. They need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 that advisory is very well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 It was almost an honor to witness such a completely bizarre event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 It was almost an honor to witness such a completely bizarre event. I feel the same! I'm glad we hung around to collect some data for the autopsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 I feel the same! I'm glad we hung around to collect some data for the autopsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Here is the verification of my maps made over the past couple of days for Tropical Storm Don... Overall I'm pretty satisfied with my track forecast, although I ended up being a little too far south. Intensity wise was a joke for the first forecast, and I could not have busted more horribly. The second intensity forecast was much more reasonable but still didn't forecast the rapid weakening that occurred as Don approached landfall. Overall, I felt like this was a much more difficult storm to forecast intensity wise than normal, so I'm not surprised how poorly I did and was pretty much schooled by the NHC which made the correct forecast to be far more conservative. Major kudos need to go to those folks as well as the others who stayed conservative with the intensity forecast. In the end, I was 6 hours off on the landfall timing for both forecasts, and my intensity forecast at landfall was a joke for the first forecast, more reasonable but still pretty bad for the second. Thus I give myself a B for the forecast track, and a mean value of D for the intensity, although the first intensity forecast is definitely an F. I encourage everyone (mets and non-mets alike) to critique my forecast and post your own verification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.