phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I noticed that...do you think it will pull that stunt? Recon had trouble finding west winds in the last fix, and pressure was up, so the LLC was weakening, so it's possible...anything is possible with Don...that would be a bummer for Josh and Cory. BTW all the lightning activity halted very suddenly. Both KBRO and KCRP shows this as the dominant feature with the remant vorticity fading away to the NE. In fact both radars show 3 distinct velocity cuplets right now with the southernmost becoming more dominant. In essence Don remains poorly organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 No, anything out there... mesocyclone certainly won't aid the official center, if there's still one.... and it's about to landfall in probably 2 hours. Has a LLC ever relocated right before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Nope What a train wreck. The dust devil we watched yesterday might be the atmospheric highlight of the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Man, what a mess! It looks like the furthest center reformation I've ever seen. Cory and I are cracking up about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 S Padre Island and Port Isabel stations changed winds from W to N... very light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Fay in 2002. Allison prior to its Louisiana landfall in 2001. Arlene in 1993. You could argue Danny in 1997 offshore the Mississippi Delta or Danny in 2009 just offshore the Southeast as well. =) Has a LLC ever relocated right before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 so my forecast of 45mph and have teflon Don slip into Mx may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Fay in 2002. Allison prior to its Louisiana landfall in 2001. Arlene in 1993. You could argue Danny in 1997 offshore the Mississippi Delta or Danny in 2009 just offshore the Southeast as well. =) Arlene 1993 makes sense (I think I forgot about the NNW jog/relocation), but I didn't know Fay and Allison also played musical centers coming ashore... I'll have to read up on them tonight. Thanks (and good to see you here BTW! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 so my forecast of 45mph and have teflon Don slip into Mx may be right. As odd as this storm is turning out to be, your forecast actually having a chance of verifying, might be the oddest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It looks like there are little vortices all over the place on Brownsville radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 From the distance, it certainly looks like the dominant mid level vortex is the one just east of BRO. Which makes sense looking at this: Near the surface the story is probably different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like Don is trying to make one last center relocation before landfall, right where all the lighting activity was observed. Interesting to see if the pressure spikes again liwith this relocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Interesting to see if the pressure spikes again liwith this relocation. I think it's probably a decoupling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 One look at the outer rain bands clearly indicates the real center is still the northern one although the southern circulation can't be helping the system at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I think it's probably a decoupling I agree...wasn't one of the models calling for the low level and mid level circulation to split this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Anyone have a recon update? Have they made it out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Anyone have a recon update? Have they made it out there? 1004mb flight level. No W wind. May have missed the 'center' if there is one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I had nearly forgotten, but Alberto 2006 did a center jump not terribly far offshore western Florida. Good to see you here too Julian. Arlene 1993 makes sense (I think I forgot about the NNW jog/relocation), but I didn't know Fay and Allison also played musical centers coming ashore... I'll have to read up on them tonight. Thanks (and good to see you here BTW! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 There was no TC at landfall, hopefully the NHC does the right thing in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 There was no TC at landfall, hopefully the NHC does the right thing in PA I completely agree...I don't know what that thing is, but it's not a tropical storm. I haven't had a chance to look, but is the ACE for this season lower than the # of named storms? It has to be pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Cory and I are at the presumed landfall point-- in Riviera Beach on Baffin Bay-- and so far the obs do not suggest a tropical storm. A good rainband is approaching from across the Bay, but so far we're having light rain and winds around 10 kt, pressure 1009.4 mb. Mega-blah. We're collecting all of the data, which we believe will be useful to the NHC in postanalysis. It feels like a non-event at this point, but let's wait until after the pressure center passes before making a final verdict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Cory and I are at the presumed landfall point-- in Riviera Beach on Baffin Bay-- and so far the obs do not suggest a tropical storm. A good rainband is approaching from across the Bay, but so far we're having light rain and winds around 10 kt, pressure 1009.4 mb. Mega-blah. We're collecting all of the data, which we believe will be useful to the NHC in postanalysis. It feels like a non-event at this point, but let's wait until after the pressure center passes before making a final verdict. Is this the first 'non-event' tropical cyclone you have been in person for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Cory and I are at the presumed landfall point-- in Riviera Beach on Baffin Bay-- and so far the obs do not suggest a tropical storm. A good rainband is approaching from across the Bay, but so far we're having light rain and winds around 10 kt, pressure 1009.4 mb. Mega-blah. We're collecting all of the data, which we believe will be useful to the NHC in postanalysis. It feels like a non-event at this point, but let's wait until after the pressure center passes before making a final verdict. ASCAT pass earlier showed almost the entirity of the wind field (the little there is) is on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Is this the first 'non-event' tropical cyclone you have been in person for? Definitely! The funny thing is, Cory and I aborted the chase hours ago and just decided to explore Baffin Bay because it's pretty and because I wanted to get the lay of the land for future chases. Based on the radar, we assumed the cyclone had disintegrated and the very idea of chasing was no longer relevant. Then when the 7 pm CDT advisory came out and suggested we were actually near the center, we figured we might as well take some obs to send to the NHC. We'll stay put collecting data until the 10 pm CDT advisory indicates the center has passed. ASCAT pass earlier showed almost the entirity of the wind field (the little there is) is on the back side. That's a very good point-- we'd forgotten that. Will be interesting to see if the winds pick up after the pressure center passes. This baby seems to have a pretty flat pressure field, as it's only dropped around ~0.7 mb in ~1 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Don has definitely thrown curveballs. The nemesis of never becoming vertically stacked and with a S to SW 500mb vort, it made for a unique cyclone. The data will be interesting from landfall and the eastern flank wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Don has definitely thrown curveballs. The nemesis of never becoming vertically stacked and with a S to SW 500mb vort, it made for a unique cyclone. The data will be interesting from landfall and the eastern flank wind field. T storms have landfalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Where'd the storm go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Where'd the storm go? We were just wondering the same thing. It just went poof! on the radar. But look at the current (0015Z) IR image. It is *extremely* misleading, as it suggests our location (Baffin Bay) is getting deluged. It is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The pressure seems to be steady at 1009.3 mb-- has been for a while-- and we're seeing patches of blue sky and even a rainbow over the Bay. We're wondering if this might be a remnant center. Let's see if we get a shift in the wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 We were just wondering the same thing. It just went poof! on the radar. But look at the current (0015Z) IR image. It is *extremely* misleading, as it suggests our location (Baffin Bay) is getting deluged. It is not. Looks like the center is near Bustland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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