My Weather Today Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Popo's house is not in the clear according to the Euro Ok help me out with something. Am I crazy or did a old famous Met always said watch the cirrus clouds out ahead of a system to figure out which direction it may be heading? Or was this some sort of urban myth? The reason I ask is because if you analyze the cirrus clouds to the northwest of Don, they are pointing in the direction in which the latest ECMWF thinks this storm may go. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Ok help me out with something. Am I crazy or did a old famous Met always said watch the cirrus clouds out ahead of a system to figure out which direction it may be heading? Or was this some sort of urban myth? The reason I ask is because if you analyze the cirrus clouds to the northwest of Don, they are pointing in the direction in which the latest ECMWF thinks this storm may go. Just curious. In the unlikely case the low level vorticity ends up north of Matagorda bay, it would be bare bones only...that's going against the strongest shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Ugh, totally. Even the outflow pattern seems basically symmetric around the fake (optical) center. Really weird. Could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Convection is still moving due west. Either the low level reforms or is dragged west, or the mid level vortex will spin off Emily by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Convection is still moving due west. Either the low level reforms or is dragged west, or the mid level vortex will spin off Emily by itself Why are you smiling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Ahh look who just wrote the 1am intermediate advisory. FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWARTMaybe a jusy 5am discussion is forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Latest TRMM pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Don is coming into the range of the Brownsville Radar... looks like some of the storm activity is trying to wrap into the eastern side despite the shear. The radar presentation has improved quite a bit over the last hour or so, although some of this might just be because the system is moving closer to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just noticed that both the overnight runs of the GFDL and HWRF bring don to H status prior to landfall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I have updated my forecast... only going with 60mph at landfall... the radar presentation leaves much to be desired and we are quickly approaching landfall time (less than 18 hours away). Even if the shear does lessen enough for convection to start forming a ring pattern within the next 6 hours, we are simply just running out of time and I see no signs of that at this time. Discussion: http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/tropical-storm-don-struggles-invest-91l-forms-disturbed-weather-in-the-caribbean/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Popo's house is not in the clear according to the Euro The beach party house version 1 had no serious issues with Allison or Claudette. I don't think this is going anywhere near Galveston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well, as far as being a drought buster, outside of Deep South Texas, It doesn't appear that Don will provide much relief. I wonder with the current storm structure if anyone north of Corpus sees much rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Don is doing his best to stack the convection with the low level circulation, but not quite enough to establish a burst of intensification.... I still like my track, but now that we passed last night with minimal strengthening, my intensity forecast at LF (which will be about 6-8 hours earlier than my prog) should be knocked back 30mph or so.....so Don will come ashore as a strong TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Latest pass was 1000mb with 20 kt SFMR. So like 998mb area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 LOCATION...26.2N 94.9W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Just speculating, but I think it may have half an eyewall built by landfall, looking at the radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 landfall late evening between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Webcam out of Brownsville, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looking at the loop out of Brownsville on Level3, it appears to be moving slightly Southwest. A wobble maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Landfall might bit north of Port Mansfield, but with most of the weather south of the center... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Jorge, in your expert amateur opinion, do you think Don is trying to build a partial eyewall and if one were BRO area and Southward, one might experience near hurricane force winds, at least in gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 GOES-E will be going into Super Rapid Scan at 1815Z, I am assuming for Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Jorge, in your expert amateur opinion, do you think Don is trying to build a partial eyewall and if one were BRO area and Southward, one might experience near hurricane force winds, at least in gusts? Don't think so, recon has not shown winds > 50kts in the southern half (FL winds), if there are near hurricane gusts anywhere, it will probably be very localized just south of where the center landfalls (probably from Port Mansfield to somewhere in Kenedy Co) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 GOES-E will be going into Super Rapid Scan at 1815Z, I am assuming for Don. And for 91L I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 GOES-E will be going into Super Rapid Scan at 1815Z, I am assuming for Don. Will there be internet sites available to see rapidly refreshing satellite images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Will there be internet sites available to see rapidly refreshing satellite images? That I can't verify, I would suspect that is dependent upon how the websites are configured. I know from practice sites like RAP will not reflect changes to RSO or SRSO, but COD will. I would think the main NOAA satellite feeds will reflect the change, but I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dud. And virtually nothing for the drought-ridden areas of TX from this. Perhaps a slight increase in monsoonal moisture for some parts of west TX over the next few days, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Tons of lightning coming from that main cell near the COC. Tops were up to 65kft not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well, as far as being a drought buster, outside of Deep South Texas, It doesn't appear that Don will provide much relief. I wonder with the current storm structure if anyone north of Corpus sees much rain at all. I would watch for moisture building on the north side near or at landfall, as frictional convergence starts affecting the structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 There is a silver lining to arc clouds racing outward from Don towards the Upper Texas coast. Two nice but broken lines of heavy storms this morning already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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