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Tropical Depression Don


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Popo's house is not in the clear according to the Euro

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Ok help me out with something. Am I crazy or did a old famous Met always said watch the cirrus clouds out ahead of a system to figure out which direction it may be heading? Or was this some sort of urban myth? The reason I ask is because if you analyze the cirrus clouds to the northwest of Don, they are pointing in the direction in which the latest ECMWF thinks this storm may go. Just curious.

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Ok help me out with something. Am I crazy or did a old famous Met always said watch the cirrus clouds out ahead of a system to figure out which direction it may be heading? Or was this some sort of urban myth? The reason I ask is because if you analyze the cirrus clouds to the northwest of Don, they are pointing in the direction in which the latest ECMWF thinks this storm may go. Just curious.

In the unlikely case the low level vorticity ends up north of Matagorda bay, it would be bare bones only...that's going against the strongest shear.

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Don is coming into the range of the Brownsville Radar... looks like some of the storm activity is trying to wrap into the eastern side despite the shear. The radar presentation has improved quite a bit over the last hour or so, although some of this might just be because the system is moving closer to the radar.

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I have updated my forecast... only going with 60mph at landfall... the radar presentation leaves much to be desired and we are quickly approaching landfall time (less than 18 hours away). Even if the shear does lessen enough for convection to start forming a ring pattern within the next 6 hours, we are simply just running out of time and I see no signs of that at this time.

Discussion: http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/29/tropical-storm-don-struggles-invest-91l-forms-disturbed-weather-in-the-caribbean/

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Don is doing his best to stack the convection with the low level circulation, but not quite enough to establish a burst of intensification....

I still like my track, but now that we passed last night with minimal strengthening, my intensity forecast at LF (which will be about 6-8 hours earlier than my prog) should be knocked back 30mph or so.....so Don will come ashore as a strong TS.

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Jorge, in your expert amateur opinion, do you think Don is trying to build a partial eyewall and if one were BRO area and Southward, one might experience near hurricane force winds, at least in gusts?

Don't think so, recon has not shown winds > 50kts in the southern half (FL winds), if there are near hurricane gusts anywhere, it will probably be very localized just south of where the center landfalls (probably from Port Mansfield to somewhere in Kenedy Co)

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Will there be internet sites available to see rapidly refreshing satellite images?

That I can't verify, I would suspect that is dependent upon how the websites are configured. I know from practice sites like RAP will not reflect changes to RSO or SRSO, but COD will. I would think the main NOAA satellite feeds will reflect the change, but I am not sure.

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Well, as far as being a drought buster, outside of Deep South Texas, It doesn't appear that Don will provide much relief. I wonder with the current storm structure if anyone north of Corpus sees much rain at all.

I would watch for moisture building on the north side near or at landfall, as frictional convergence starts affecting the structure.

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