Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 lol... Waste of a good hurricane name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 lol... I'd laugh out loud if it looked like landfall near Port Lavaca and a good solid rain tomorrow. /crying on the inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I thik my early guess, not a whole lot of science, just a quick glance at trends and models, from a day ago, Matamoros or just South, 60 knots, is actually pretty close. Not in the ddwxman league of instability tropical wather analysts, just a SWAG. 60 knots, maybe a tad high, carried away by the enthusiasm of the pro-mets. hey 65mph is my forecast, initially we all thought higher though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 When I saw the name "Don" in the list a few years ago I pictured a large lumbering hurricane. This has been quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If the low level vortex is not getting dragged by the mid level vortex, then this thing is going to decouple, the best convection is around 24N... if the center of the low is around 25N, then they are going to part ways soon, like many models have suggested...which would mean a weakening Don making landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Lol.. it'd be hilarious if it goes Chris on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z GFS says no decoupling, finally... which means a stronger and farther south solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 When I saw the name "Don" in the list a few years ago I pictured a large lumbering hurricane. This has been quite the opposite. I kinda did too...but I also thought the same for Hurricane "Gaston". I'd venture that our big August/September storms will likely be Gert, Harvey or Irene similar to 2008 (Dolly in late July, Gustav-Hanna-Ike were the biggies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z GFS says no decoupling, finally... which means a stronger and farther south solution... Wow the gfs has done a complete 180 from 00z yesterday... now matches my forecast track from yesterday quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z HWRF is exactly on the border, and stronger. I guess most of the guidance will follow suit, and a significant shift south by the NHC with surprise watches and warnings for MX will ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z HWRF is exactly on the border, and stronger. I guess most of the guidance will follow suit, and a significant shift south by the NHC with surprise watches and warnings for MX will ensue. Stfu. P.S. You on Skype?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 New microwave... center still partially exposed. Meanwhile... CIMSS shows a pretty large pocket of 5 knots or less of shear that is directly in the path of Don... maybe the shear will finally led up enough for the convection to wrap around the center on a more consistent basis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z HWRF is exactly on the border, and stronger. I guess most of the guidance will follow suit, and a significant shift south by the NHC with surprise watches and warnings for MX will ensue. Even if this thing makes landfall exactly on the border, Josh still has the right idea staying in TX (issues with crossing the border aside) so he can reap the benefits of being in the right-front quadrant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Meanwhile... CIMSS shows a pretty large pocket of 5 knots or less of shear that is directly in the path of Don... maybe the shear will finally led up enough for the convection to wrap around the center on a more consistent basis? Yeah, I'm hoping it can pull a little magic overnight with the dmax-- or during the day tomorrow. We still have some time. Even if this thing makes landfall exactly on the border, Josh still has the right idea staying in TX (issues with crossing the border aside) so he can reap the benefits of being in the right-front quadrant Thanks. Yeah, we'd be cool with a landfall right at the border-- it would give TX the best action, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The new (1 am CDT) advisory position is 25.0N 93.0W-- meaning the cyclone has started gaining latitude again. That sustains the threat to TX-- however, it also suggests a somewhat disorganized system, as it puts the center on the N edge of the convection (a recurring theme with this storm). One other detail-- the pressure has risen back up to 1003 mb. Grrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Radar echos from Don on KBRO radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The new (1 am CDT) advisory position is 25.0N 93.0W-- meaning the cyclone has started gaining latitude again. That sustains the threat to TX-- however, it also suggests a somewhat disorganized system, as it puts the center on the N edge of the convection (a recurring theme with this storm). One other detail-- the pressure has risen back up to 1003 mb. Grrr. Strange, the pressure goes in contrast with the last VDM, I guess it didn't arrive in time. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 06:07Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011 Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 4 Observation Number: 18 A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 5:35:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°59'N 92°56'W (24.9833N 92.9333W) B. Center Fix Location: 292 miles (469 km) to the ESE (103°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,455m (4,774ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 81° at 34kts (From the E at ~ 39.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:56:40Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:56:40Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Even if this thing makes landfall exactly on the border, Josh still has the right idea staying in TX (issues with crossing the border aside) so he can reap the benefits of being in the right-front quadrant Look at the IR...there's no right front quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 If the center were at 24N, it would be a nice-looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z Euro is now the right outlier ... I give up with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 0z Euro is now the right outlier ... I give up with this storm. Popo's house is not in the clear according to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html Looking Better,Decent Outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Look at the IR...there's no right front quad haha, well despite the lack of convection, the winds are still decent. In fact its the only quadrant that has been showing FL winds of tropical storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 haha, well despite the lack of convection, the winds are still decent. In fact its the only quadrant that has been showing FL winds of tropical storm force. Good luck translating them to the surface... at least an observer could see the cirrus by passing real quick. A clear day gale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Good luck translating them to the surface... at least an observer could see the cirrus passing real quick. Omg. Pure hater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Haven't seen a more deceiving IR in my life....if I didn't know better I would be betting on a quickly intensifying hurricane by just looking at it. It's a shame Don is just part of the Nern outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Haven't seen a more deceiving IR in my life....if I didn't know better I would be betting on a quick intensifying hurricane by just looking at it. Ugh, totally. Even the outflow pattern seems basically symmetric around the fake (optical) center. Really weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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