Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 wow, how good was the LBAR model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looking nicer. But, regardless, this won't be a drought-buster for most of Texas anymore with the further south track. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I would watch this, it could be farther north and stronger than any model is predicting, its following the channel between ULLs at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 00Z WV imagery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 AL, 04, 2011072900, , BEST, 0, 246N, 919W, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 85, 50, 0, 20, 1011, 90, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DON, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Cirrus canopy being impinged a bit from the NE....but new convection looking to fire in SE portion of presumed COC,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 You guys know me too well. Anyway, here's the anticipated loop that you've been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 You guys know me too well. Anyway, here's the anticipated loop that you've been waiting for. It's a boob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It's a boob. Look, hes got a rubber boobie!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Look, hes got a rubber boobie!!! Meet the Fockers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Anyway, as promised... HH's first pass through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Extrap 999.5 on this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Meet the Fockers? Yup, it kind of fit with the theme Back to Don though, if thats NOT a hot tower in the middle, I am not sure what is. Wonder what the height is of that over shooting top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Def outflow improvement in all quadrants especially to the West and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Not as pretty looking, and convection is waning a bit, though there's still plenty of cold cloud tops. MW imagery suggests it still need some work, and wind speeds have been lacking so far. But it's strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Last recon pass back up to 999.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I just got back from being out and all I can say is wow... that was a crazy convective burst and pressure drop. Totally didn't expect the pressure to drop nearly 10mb in a couple of hours. The NHC discussion is going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998 RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES. SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY. Meh, 45/998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Bummer... the NHC discussion is a bit of a letdown. I guess an 8mb drop between two center passes isn't interesting. In other news it looks like the convection is collapsing again near the estimated center. It was a nice burst from it seems the synoptic conditions don't seem to have changed too much. We'll see what those new convective clusters do to the south of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 10:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 Location: 24.7°N 92.5°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Bummer... the NHC discussion is a bit of a letdown. I guess an 8mb drop between two center passes isn't interesting. In other news it looks like the convection is collapsing again near the estimated center. It was a nice burst from it seems the synoptic conditions don't seem to have changed too much. We'll see what those new convective clusters do to the south of the system. Too bad advisory time didn't coincide with the period of rapidly building convection a couple hours ago... we probably would have had a strong TS on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 there's a propensity for mesolows to form downshear left in sheared TCs. Could this be the reason for the jog leftward? Structure of Highly Sheared Tropical Cyclone Chantel during CAMEX-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 there's a propensity for mesolows to form downshear left in sheared TCs. Could this be the reason for the jog leftward? Structure of Highly Sheared Tropical Cyclone Chantel during CAMEX-4 Possibly. I'm not sure if it was a completely new center that formed or whether the original center got pulled into the convective burst. You can get a really quick burst of intensification if you're able to get an intense convective burst to occur really close to the center within the RMW, which is apparently what happened in this case. Gabrielle (2001) and Claudette (2003) were also examples of this. Both of those examples went on to weaken quickly after their temporary intensifications, and I've seen that happen with other strongly-sheared storms as well. This is probably because since the shear is strong, the dry air has open access to the core, and the persistent convective burst has downdrafts that bring that dry air down into the boundary layer and kills everything in a heartbeat. I don't think that'll be the case with Don, though, as the shear isn't anywhere near that strong, but I'm wary of the fact that the dry air may still be having some impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It's a boob. Look, hes got a rubber boobie!!! Sometimes you just shouldn't hit the "add reply" button, even if you think you've got a "good one." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Possibly. I'm not sure if it was a completely new center that formed or whether the original center got pulled into the convective burst. You can get a really quick burst of intensification if you're able to get an intense convective burst to occur really close to the center within the RMW, which is apparently what happened in this case. Gabrielle (2001) and Claudette (2003) were also examples of this. Both of those examples went on to weaken quickly after their temporary intensifications, and I've seen that happen with other strongly-sheared storms as well. This is probably because since the shear is strong, the dry air has open access to the core, and the persistent convective burst has downdrafts that bring that dry air down into the boundary layer and kills everything in a heartbeat. I don't think that'll be the case with Don, though, as the shear isn't anywhere near that strong, but I'm wary of the fact that the dry air may still be having some impact. Yea the examples you cited are very relevant in this case... latest microwave pass shows a mainly exposed center again. It might pulse back up, but its certainly still fighting the shear and the dry air inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It looks like we'll be around the 1000/999 mb mark with this next pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I thik my early guess, not a whole lot of science, just a quick glance at trends and models, from a day ago, Matamoros or just South, 60 knots, is actually pretty close. Not in the ddwxman league of instability tropical wather analysts, just a SWAG. 60 knots, maybe a tad high, carried away by the enthusiasm of the pro-mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Left for work with a bursting tropical storm....return from work with Don of 24 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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