Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I smell a calamity loop coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like an eye might be popping out soon But if an eye does pop later on....there will be massive adjustments to the future of Don.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 My flight got canceled since the radar broke. Flying for the 1st time fail, will have to wait until later in the season. Bummer!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Bummer!!! Yeah man, nothing like getting all ready and then the plug is pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Airforce should hit the center either in the next set or following set of observations, doing a fix at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 But if an eye does pop later on....there will be massive adjustments to the future of Don.... I highly doubt that, looks like a convective tower induced by shear to me. Still a good thing but there'll be no visible or solid eye with such a tilted vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I highly doubt that, looks like a convective tower induced by shear to me. Still a good thing but there'll be no visible or solid eye with such a tilted vortex. Yeah....that's why I qualified it as "later on"...but no doubt, very nice canopy over Don....now does it collapse?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 We need microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 995.4mb extrap from 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I smell a calamity loop coming... Funny, I was just about to ask where those loops where. Has he posted at all since the transition from Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 995.4mb extrap from 850mb Wow, that's some rapid deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah man, nothing like getting all ready and then the plug is pulled. OT, but I often wonder if there would be a market for a real time simulator, with HH planes outfitted with motion sensing equiptment, full mock up of instrumentation with live video/radar/etc. streaming...oh....and some barf bags!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Center at 850mb is about 24.45N, 91.7W 000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03 001000 2426N 09150W 8428 01505 9975 +250 +166 269007 016 041 003 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 This thing is bombing out.. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Center at 850mb is about 24.45N, 91.7W 000930 2427N 09149W 8437 01489 9954 +279 +142 107010 013 024 002 03 001000 2426N 09150W 8428 01505 9975 +250 +166 269007 016 041 003 03 Pretty much the same as the 750mb fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Probably around 999 mb.. those extraps usually suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That is quite a large temperature perturbation on the order of 10+C, maxing out at 28C at 850. Wow! Very narrow too, possibly a response to subsidence off the convective tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Huge symmetric warm spot popping out from under the deep convection. CDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like the center jumped further southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dp depression is 10°F though.. But we saw how that might be wrong earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That is quite a large temperature perturbation on the order of 10+C, maxing out at 28C at 850. Wow! Very narrow too, possibly a response to subsidence off the convective tower. I was just about to ask about that.. 83°F at 850 mb! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dp depression is 10°F though.. But we saw how that might be wrong earlier today. The dewpoints on this flight are definitely legit. Given the massive warm core, I believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The vortex is definitely upright too with the southerly 850 mb center fix. The temp max is right with the lowest extrap pressure as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I was considering the possibility that this was a center recapture/reposition as causal to that apparent jog. Impressively cold persisting quasi-CDO feature, most likely attributed to the fact that the system is currently passing close a region of very high oceanic heat content - with significant thermocline depth as well. This is providing a source of high fuel input that is compensating for any dry air impacts, as well. So long as we have a TC with a closed circulation, quick pressure falls would likely have to occur given to these powerfully sustaining updrafts as evidenced by IR channels. Most guidance keeps this rather pedestrian; let us hope that is verified. We have seen in the past that pretty satellite presentations are not always confirmed. My personal hope for this was that a pedestrian system would make its way into interior TX and eventually get caught up in the monsoonal flow into OK and other areas that are parched dry and in severe drought. Currently the wind overlay at TPC, as coarse as it may be, is indicating that the region of impacting NNE shear is bypassing now to the east as the TC moves away; that may also be helping said recapture scenario because the middle and upper level turrets are no longer leaning away from the llv eddy. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 The vortex is definitely upright too with the southerly 850 mb center fix. The temp max is right with the lowest extrap pressure as well. Now we await some wind response....should be some decent increases over the next few hours that recon is out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Im putting togther a Temp/ Dp / Wind Cross Section with the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 CDO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 drop was 999mb with 29kt winds at the surface, so pressure is probably a couple mb lower. Still not vertical, as the drop location had only 8kts at 850mb, but in far better shape then recon found it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Im thinking the 996 by the noaa plane is probably the pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Im thinking the 996 by the noaa plane is probably the pressure And falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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