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Tropical Depression Don


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Now that the NOAA plane is out there, I don't know if we can blame 10ºC dewpoint depressions on a bad sensor on the WC-130J.

To be fair, this was the biggest delta I could find, some were less than 5º on the current HDOB.

222300 2313N 09249W 7512 02566 0096 +140 +030 332013 013 020 000 00

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Now that the NOAA plane is out there, I don't know if we can blame 10ºC dewpoint depressions on a bad sensor on the WC-130J.

To be fair, this was the biggest delta I could find, some were less than 5º on the current HDOB.

That's well south of the center. There should be some subsidence in the periphery of the cyclone

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:25Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Number: 04

Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3 seeall.png

Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011

Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:53Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°13'N 91°26'W (24.2167N 91.4333W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 397 miles (639 km) to the ESE (107°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,566m (8,419ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,549m (8,363ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:30Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb

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NOAA has 996mb extrap from 750mb. Air Force should be there soon from a lower height to give a better estimate. Lowest pressure is close to the center of the convective ball on IR.

I bet we some of the hurricane models jump at bit in max intensity over the next few runs...Convection looks robust enough, and has maintained itself for the last few hours....good signs for at least some short term intensification..

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NOAA has 996mb extrap from 750mb. Air Force should be there soon from a lower height to give a better estimate. Lowest pressure is close to the center of the convective ball on IR.

Wow, that's a 9mb drop from the 4pm advisory. Just amazing how fast my namesake has pulled it together this afternoon.

This thing is booking right along toward the coast, and looking like the more westward movement should bring it ashore in something like 24 hours now, South Texas coastal residents may really be scrambling when they wake up.

Don

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