Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Lookin' good. Moisture envelope has expanded W and albeit small, Don is getting that Gulf cyclone ‘feel’ about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Now that the NOAA plane is out there, I don't know if we can blame 10ºC dewpoint depressions on a bad sensor on the WC-130J. To be fair, this was the biggest delta I could find, some were less than 5º on the current HDOB. 222300 2313N 09249W 7512 02566 0096 +140 +030 332013 013 020 000 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Now that the NOAA plane is out there, I don't know if we can blame 10ºC dewpoint depressions on a bad sensor on the WC-130J. To be fair, this was the biggest delta I could find, some were less than 5º on the current HDOB. That's well south of the center. There should be some subsidence in the periphery of the cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 18z GFS has a stronger and farther south Don landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 where do you get those GFS maps? 18z GFS has a stronger and farther south Don landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 where do you get those GFS maps? Here or here ... the latter will be decomissioned in a month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Here or here ... the latter will be decomissioned in a month or so. Yeah that's the typical site for GFS maps. From the place it's generated lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 SSMI & SSMI/S MW imagery will be telling if they hit the target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Overshooting tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 22:25Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 04 Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011 Observation Number: 07 A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:53Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°13'N 91°26'W (24.2167N 91.4333W) B. Center Fix Location: 397 miles (639 km) to the ESE (107°) from Brownsville, TX, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,566m (8,419ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,549m (8,363ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 750mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Overshooting tops prrutty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Omg. It's looking weirdly hawt all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Omg. It's looking weirdly hawt all of a sudden. Doncha think Joshie? Haha I'm impressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah that's the typical site for GFS maps. From the place it's generated lol. I think the poster may have ment that particular map from the gfs run, not that where can they find the actual gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Omg. It's looking weirdly hawt all of a sudden. And the latest is even a bit hotter.... that warm spot on IR might be for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 7pm CDT advisory acknowledges westward jog. No change on intensity... obviously hard data is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 8pm advisory went with 24.7°N 91.8°W, well within the convection which now expands well pass 25N. Both planes will be making fixes shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 NOAA has 996mb extrap from 750mb. Air Force should be there soon from a lower height to give a better estimate. Lowest pressure is close to the center of the convective ball on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Omg. It's looking weirdly hawt all of a sudden. Heat content ftw. Bring on the Dmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Sorry for all the IR post flooding, but this is intriguing. New perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Down to 996mb extrapolated... from 1004mb 1.5 hours ago. 24.4n 91.7w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 This system is hilarious...ever since before the islands it's been hot and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 NOAA has 996mb extrap from 750mb. Air Force should be there soon from a lower height to give a better estimate. Lowest pressure is close to the center of the convective ball on IR. I bet we some of the hurricane models jump at bit in max intensity over the next few runs...Convection looks robust enough, and has maintained itself for the last few hours....good signs for at least some short term intensification.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like an eye might be popping out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like an eye might be popping out soon I very much doubt it. Not without seeing some indication in the center fix discussion that something is forming...typical waning of convection, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Huge symmetric warm spot popping out from under the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 NOAA has 996mb extrap from 750mb. Air Force should be there soon from a lower height to give a better estimate. Lowest pressure is close to the center of the convective ball on IR. Wow, that's a 9mb drop from the 4pm advisory. Just amazing how fast my namesake has pulled it together this afternoon. This thing is booking right along toward the coast, and looking like the more westward movement should bring it ashore in something like 24 hours now, South Texas coastal residents may really be scrambling when they wake up. Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 My flight got canceled since the radar broke. Flying for the 1st time fail, will have to wait until later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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