HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 For all the trolling going on.. Don has actually managed to look better over the past few hours. Convection is now firing near the center and the 10 min GOES imagery isn't showing any outflow puffs. Agreed. I mean, it's a crappy cyclone and I have no delusions about it, but it's still alive and kicking. And I should point out that we're at the time of day when convection usually starts to really suck-- so the flaring up is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 ...Don continues northwestward keeping track with yesterday's forecast. Latest satellite images do still indicate that upper level wind shear is having an impact on Don, displacing the low level COC in correspondence with the associated convection. All things considered, the shear is lessening to some extent and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection near the storm's center. Current steering current images show that in the next 12-18 hours the storm may take on a more WNW rather than NW track, bringing it in a bit more south that originally anticipated. Moreover, intensity estimates have been trimmed back a little thanks to the persistent upper level shear as well as the dry air being entrained into the system as mentioned by the national hurricane center. In addition, this agrees with latest intensity models and nowcasting observations that show Don is having a tougher time gaining strength and maintaining convection. Despite this, gradual strengthening is expected up until landfall as the system moves into wind shear amounts less than 10 knots in the Western Gulf of Mexico and shear tendencies are indeed showing a decrease over the past 6 hours to that level as mentioned around 5-10kts. Stay tuned for more details as the latest recon flights give us new data and the latest satellite images feed in. I was just touching the tip there, expect more if you need more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 .I was just touching the tip there, expect more if you need more. no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Who's "our"? The Unabomber referred to himself in the plural in his letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 no. hey, i was just wondering what your purpose is on the board and why exactly you are here. Oh wait, that is your purpose other than ticking me off. Besides, the only good thing about you is the puppies in your sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 This is actually a pretty good visual loop when something is within the range presented. From ADD, and it looks like it has outflow to the East and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 hey, i was just wondering what your purpose is on the board and why exactly you are here. Oh wait, that is your purpose other than ticking me off. Besides, the only good thing about you is the puppies in your sig. If you're going to post them a lot start another thread. You are helping derail the thread whether on purpose or inadvertently. I think you can agree if everyone was just posting fancy maps without adding to the discussion the discussion would be worse off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If you're going to post them a lot start another thread. You are helping derail the thread whether on purpose or inadvertently. I think you can agree if everyone was just posting fancy maps without adding to the discussion the discussion would be worse off. I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 ...Don continues northwestward keeping track with yesterday's forecast. Latest satellite images do still indicate that upper level wind shear is having an impact on Don, displacing the low level COC in correspondence with the associated convection. All things considered, the shear is lessening to some extent and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection near the storm's center. Current steering current images show that in the next 12-18 hours the storm may take on a more WNW rather than NW track, bringing it in a bit more south that originally anticipated. Moreover, intensity estimates have been trimmed back a little thanks to the persistent upper level shear as well as the dry air being entrained into the system as mentioned by the national hurricane center. In addition, this agrees with latest intensity models and nowcasting observations that show Don is having a tougher time gaining strength and maintaining convection. Despite this, gradual strengthening is expected up until landfall as the system moves into wind shear amounts less than 10 knots in the Western Gulf of Mexico and shear tendencies are indeed showing a decrease over the past 6 hours to that level as mentioned around 5-10kts. Stay tuned for more details as the latest recon flights give us new data and the latest satellite images feed in. I was just touching the tip there, expect more if you need more. just to see how it feels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 just to see how it feels? I shouldve known that wouldve caused some sort of reaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 hey, i was just wondering what your purpose is on the board and why exactly you are here. Oh wait, that is your purpose other than ticking me off. Besides, the only good thing about you is the puppies in your sig. I read and learn from the people who are credible. I provide some comic relief. I mess with weenies like you who create forecasting agencies an bombard the board with silly forecasts that are just mishmashes of other people's stuff. Your first map was ridiculous. Your second a complete guess. Please please please, stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed? I'm not a tropical thread regular unless there is action. I'm not trying to be mean, as I think you're a smart guy, but I don't personally have much interest in seeing it in a big merged thread. I like the idea of a thread or threads for random calls unless you're an expert or at least have made it known you know what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed? Storm2K. I was banned there, you'll never see me. But they like that kind of stuff. Just remember to include the standard legal disclaimer about it being an unofficial product so if some loser doesn't follow a mandatory evac and drowns his next of kin can't sue the site owner, Marshall, because said loser got his forecast from S2K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Any comments about Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I read and learn from the people who are credible. I provide some comic relief. I mess with weenies like you who create forecasting agencies an bombard the board with silly forecasts that are just mishmashes of other people's stuff. Your first map was ridiculous. Your second a complete guess. Please please please, stop posting. Please please please LEAVE ME ALONE! Impress me with your endless knowledge...I'm not talking about this anyone because I personally don't wanna get Ian or an admin upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Any comments about Don? What a silly request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Any comments about Don? just S of CRP... 55-65kts ... recon is on route. Cloud tops are cooling, but are mostly displaced south of the center. Probably there's some strengthening going on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If the coldest IRT on the scale is -70ºC, Don looks hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Not bad visually either for a moderate tropical storm. I'm still holding out a sliver of hope it gets an upgrade just before landfall, and puts us 3 storms ahead of climatology and 1 hurricane ahead (NHC page climatology figures) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 15 hr forecast from predictive satellite/radar... This would not look all that bad if it ends up being correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 15 hr forecast from predictive satellite/radar... This would not look all that bad if it ends up being correct... Come on now dude, you know that is a silly thing to post right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 15 hr forecast from predictive satellite/radar... This would not look all that bad if it ends up being correct... If only it wasn't the NAM... The much more reasonable scenario is of this being continually affected by shear and/or dry air through to landfall.... just look at the WV loops. 50-55 KT is the most probable max intensity IMO now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 just S of CRP... 55-65kts ... recon is on route. Cloud tops are cooling, but are mostly displaced south of the center. Probably there's some strengthening going on now. You tryin' to get back on my good side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I wouldn't necessarily take the intense convection as a sign that this is getting better organized. It might be, or it could just be getting ready to dump another round of cool, dry air into the boundary layer as it's been doing over the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If only it wasn't the NAM... The much more reasonable scenario is of this being continually affected by shear and/or dry air through to landfall.... just look at the WV loops. 50-55 KT is the most probable max intensity IMO now. While I do agree that there are issues at hand, I still think Don is going to steadily intensify tonight into tomorrow. I think even a cat 1 is still attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Come on now dude, you know that is a silly thing to post right? Enhanced water vapor looks the best it has since its life began... Not saying the NAM is going to be correct but it does not look nearly as shabby as it did earlier today and late yesterday afternoon.. Approaching the higher TCHP ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks like Don has made a jog left .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I wouldn't necessarily take the intense convection as a sign that this is getting better organized. It might be, or it could just be getting ready to dump another round of cool, dry air into the boundary layer as it's been doing over the past 12 hours. I hear ya, but with a tropical cyclone, I'm generally going to prefer deep convection near the center as opposed to no deep convection near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Any comments about Don? Not dead by any means, just the higher spectrum of forecasts that were issued yesterday won't verify. There is still an decent chance (but not greater than 50%) shot of this becoming a hurricane. Still feel pretty confident in my landfall location by taking the southern portion of the track guidance in the event that Don gets stronger than most of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Disappointing. We need the rain so bad in Texas. Out here in West Texas, we haven't even seen an inch of rain ALL YEAR. It's just beyond terrible. Yesterday, things were hopeful. Now, even if this strengthens, it will turn the south and miss most of West Texas regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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