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Tropical Depression Don


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For all the trolling going on.. Don has actually managed to look better over the past few hours. Convection is now firing near the center and the 10 min GOES imagery isn't showing any outflow puffs.

Agreed. I mean, it's a crappy cyclone and I have no delusions about it, but it's still alive and kicking. And I should point out that we're at the time of day when convection usually starts to really suck-- so the flaring up is encouraging.

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...Don continues northwestward keeping track with yesterday's forecast. Latest satellite images do still indicate that upper level wind shear is having an impact on Don, displacing the low level COC in correspondence with the associated convection. All things considered, the shear is lessening to some extent and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection near the storm's center. Current steering current images show that in the next 12-18 hours the storm may take on a more WNW rather than NW track, bringing it in a bit more south that originally anticipated. Moreover, intensity estimates have been trimmed back a little thanks to the persistent upper level shear as well as the dry air being entrained into the system as mentioned by the national hurricane center. In addition, this agrees with latest intensity models and nowcasting observations that show Don is having a tougher time gaining strength and maintaining convection. Despite this, gradual strengthening is expected up until landfall as the system moves into wind shear amounts less than 10 knots in the Western Gulf of Mexico and shear tendencies are indeed showing a decrease over the past 6 hours to that level as mentioned around 5-10kts. Stay tuned for more details as the latest recon flights give us new data and the latest satellite images feed in.

I was just touching the tip there, expect more if you need more.

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hey, i was just wondering what your purpose is on the board and why exactly you are here. Oh wait, that is your purpose other than ticking me off.

Besides, the only good thing about you is the puppies in your sig.

If you're going to post them a lot start another thread. You are helping derail the thread whether on purpose or inadvertently. I think you can agree if everyone was just posting fancy maps without adding to the discussion the discussion would be worse off.

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If you're going to post them a lot start another thread. You are helping derail the thread whether on purpose or inadvertently. I think you can agree if everyone was just posting fancy maps without adding to the discussion the discussion would be worse off.

I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed?

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...Don continues northwestward keeping track with yesterday's forecast. Latest satellite images do still indicate that upper level wind shear is having an impact on Don, displacing the low level COC in correspondence with the associated convection. All things considered, the shear is lessening to some extent and infrared satellite images do show an increase in convection near the storm's center. Current steering current images show that in the next 12-18 hours the storm may take on a more WNW rather than NW track, bringing it in a bit more south that originally anticipated. Moreover, intensity estimates have been trimmed back a little thanks to the persistent upper level shear as well as the dry air being entrained into the system as mentioned by the national hurricane center. In addition, this agrees with latest intensity models and nowcasting observations that show Don is having a tougher time gaining strength and maintaining convection. Despite this, gradual strengthening is expected up until landfall as the system moves into wind shear amounts less than 10 knots in the Western Gulf of Mexico and shear tendencies are indeed showing a decrease over the past 6 hours to that level as mentioned around 5-10kts. Stay tuned for more details as the latest recon flights give us new data and the latest satellite images feed in.

I was just touching the tip there, expect more if you need more.

just to see how it feels?

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hey, i was just wondering what your purpose is on the board and why exactly you are here. Oh wait, that is your purpose other than ticking me off.

Besides, the only good thing about you is the puppies in your sig.

I read and learn from the people who are credible. I provide some comic relief. I mess with weenies like you who create forecasting agencies an bombard the board with silly forecasts that are just mishmashes of other people's stuff.

Your first map was ridiculous. Your second a complete guess. Please please please, stop posting.

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I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed?

I'm not a tropical thread regular unless there is action. I'm not trying to be mean, as I think you're a smart guy, but I don't personally have much interest in seeing it in a big merged thread. I like the idea of a thread or threads for random calls unless you're an expert or at least have made it known you know what you are talking about.

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I can't disagree with that, what if I do include disco's then is it allowed?

Storm2K. I was banned there, you'll never see me. But they like that kind of stuff.

Just remember to include the standard legal disclaimer about it being an unofficial product so if some loser doesn't follow a mandatory evac and drowns his next of kin can't sue the site owner, Marshall, because said loser got his forecast from S2K.

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I read and learn from the people who are credible. I provide some comic relief. I mess with weenies like you who create forecasting agencies an bombard the board with silly forecasts that are just mishmashes of other people's stuff.

Your first map was ridiculous. Your second a complete guess. Please please please, stop posting.

Please please please LEAVE ME ALONE! Impress me with your endless knowledge...I'm not talking about this anyone because I personally don't wanna get Ian or an admin upset.

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15 hr forecast from predictive satellite/radar...

This would not look all that bad if it ends up being correct...

Come on now dude, you know that is a silly thing to post right? :guitar:

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15 hr forecast from predictive satellite/radar...

This would not look all that bad if it ends up being correct...

If only it wasn't the NAM...

The much more reasonable scenario is of this being continually affected by shear and/or dry air through to landfall.... just look at the WV loops. 50-55 KT is the most probable max intensity IMO now.

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I wouldn't necessarily take the intense convection as a sign that this is getting better organized. It might be, or it could just be getting ready to dump another round of cool, dry air into the boundary layer as it's been doing over the past 12 hours.

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If only it wasn't the NAM...

The much more reasonable scenario is of this being continually affected by shear and/or dry air through to landfall.... just look at the WV loops. 50-55 KT is the most probable max intensity IMO now.

While I do agree that there are issues at hand, I still think Don is going to steadily intensify tonight into tomorrow. I think even a cat 1 is still attainable.

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Come on now dude, you know that is a silly thing to post right? :guitar:

Enhanced water vapor looks the best it has since its life began...

Not saying the NAM is going to be correct but it does not look nearly as shabby as it did earlier today and late yesterday afternoon..

Approaching the higher TCHP ...

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I wouldn't necessarily take the intense convection as a sign that this is getting better organized. It might be, or it could just be getting ready to dump another round of cool, dry air into the boundary layer as it's been doing over the past 12 hours.

I hear ya, but with a tropical cyclone, I'm generally going to prefer deep convection near the center as opposed to no deep convection near the center. :D

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Any comments about Don?

Not dead by any means, just the higher spectrum of forecasts that were issued yesterday won't verify. There is still an decent chance (but not greater than 50%) shot of this becoming a hurricane. Still feel pretty confident in my landfall location by taking the southern portion of the track guidance in the event that Don gets stronger than most of the guidance.

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Disappointing. We need the rain so bad in Texas. Out here in West Texas, we haven't even seen an inch of rain ALL YEAR.

It's just beyond terrible. Yesterday, things were hopeful. Now, even if this strengthens, it will turn the south and miss most of West Texas regardless.

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