Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 So you made it up? I think this could be more of an issue in college we referred to as 'significant figures'. In an engineering calculation, the final answer could be no more precise than the least precise variable used in the calculation. One could make a forecast, based on observations and models, and predict an approximate landfall point. It only really gets a bad mark from the professor, to use the significant figures reference, when one splits it into a county by county basis with 10 different levels of precentages. If he had gone with something more like the LEK prediction graphic, it would be ok. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice, a 40 year old woman picking on an 18 year old because he posted a map. Your mom and dad must be proud. Please take this to OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think this could be more of an issue in college we referred to as 'significant figures'. In an engineering calculation, the final answer could be no more precise than the least precise variable used in the calculation. One could make a forecast, based on observations and models, and predict an approximate landfall point. It only really gets a bad mark from the professor, to use the significant figures reference, when one splits it into a county by county basis with 10 different levels of precentages. If he had gone with something more like the LEK prediction graphic, it would be ok. IMHO. Its sort of like the nhc's prob graphic. With that in mind, I issued a nice cone yesterday with intensity estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well, mission 4 has begun, and at least it isn't as an abysmal as earlier. What will the crowd consensus be after data is taken? Cat 3 or swirling clouds? There looks to be no middle terms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice, a 40 year old woman picking on an 18 year old because he posted a map. Your mom and dad must be proud. Not only that, the last one i posted is pretty accurate IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Please take this to OT. Agreed, leave it in OT Mapgirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 OEM and Ed for Mod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 OEM and Ed for Mod... Nahhh, Ill vote for ED, but I would drop the hammer on some of the trolling that goes on here. So I am probably better not assuming that roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Don's intensity remains the same, TS force winds being reported in the NW quadrant for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 DON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM. IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14. DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL. THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 72 HR POINT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 24.9N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.8N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 27.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 28.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 30.5N 103.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nahhh, Ill vote for ED, but I would drop the hammer on some of the trolling that goes on here. So I am probably better not assuming that roll. it's role. anyways, you and ddweatherman should both stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 What will the crowd consensus be after data is taken? Cat 3 or swirling clouds? There looks to be no middle terms here. My vote - If it only had more time over water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 My vote - If it only had more time over water! It had (and has) plenty of time over water, it just couldn't hold its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATIONSUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION. From this quote in the NHC discussion, it sounds like they definitely agree with the dry air entrained from the west idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think this could be more of an issue in college we referred to as 'significant figures'. In an engineering calculation, the final answer could be no more precise than the least precise variable used in the calculation. One could make a forecast, based on observations and models, and predict an approximate landfall point. It only really gets a bad mark from the professor, to use the significant figures reference, when one splits it into a county by county basis with 10 different levels of precentages. If he had gone with something more like the LEK prediction graphic, it would be ok. IMHO. Well the fact that it changed so dramatically over the course of a short period makes me think it's useless. I'm not that interested in defining the conversation but I worry about slippery slopes. IMO any posting of a map with no discussion is "eh" tho of course a red-tagger who is "respected" in these threads gets some leeway. It's sort of like the rapid fire posts of location and speed with no thought behind it.. wasted space and time reading. If he wants to keep posting them I'd suggest a separate thread devoted to them so people can come and go as they please and not be bombarded by something with what may be no meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 cone as of 5PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 From this quote in the NHC discussion, it sounds like they definitely agree with the dry air entrained from the west idea. Yeah these issues were showing up on the data yesterday and this storm has been and will continue to be a good learning experience (all tropical systems are a learning experience but in this case it was about small size/favorable warm water vs.marginal large-scale features for potential dry air entrainment/shear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Ian- I wasn't defending him. Pointing out a county by county probability map in 10% increments implies way too much certainty in the forecast product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 cone as of 5PM Honestly, what's the difference between this and the NHC forecast (besides 5 mph, and yours having a wider cone)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah these issues were showing up on the data yesterday and this storm has been and will continue to be a good learning experience (all tropical systems are a learning experience but in this case it was about small size/favorable warm water vs.marginal large-scale features for potential dry air entrainment/shear). Yeah these things are difficult. Honestly, I don't even think the shear is all that bad by itself...at least right now, the shear diagnostics are not showing all that much. It might be the case that the dry air is so dry and perfectly placed that any degree of shear is enough to inject it into the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well... After hearing Cory reading all of the death notices in the car on the way to Corpus, I have to say I'm surprised even to see convection on the infrared imagery. It's not a pretty cyclone, but gawd-- it's not exactly dead yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah these things are difficult. Honestly, I don't even think the shear is all that bad by itself...at least right now, the shear diagnostics are not showing all that much. It might be the case that the dry air is so dry and perfectly placed that any degree of shear is enough to inject it into the core. Agreed and that is why this is precisely a cool learning experience. It was the "dry air squeeze play" on the "oasis" (sorry Kush) with marginally favorable shear. The dmax / eddy period should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Actually not looking all that bad on IR for the time being. Outflow seems to be improving a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Honestly, what's the difference between this and the NHC forecast (besides 5 mph, and yours having a wider cone)? You know what, I don't understand, I'm sure 100 news stations around the country have cones out plus the major stations, maybe my cone looks somewhat similar to the NHC because I believe a track almost like what they have is correct? I'm tired of getting pestered by it, its our teams products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The first NOAA flight into Don should be on its way now. I'm on the 4 am flight so I have to go to sleep soon! Doesn't look bad right now on sat, hopefully shear lessens a bit and lets this thing really go. Probably not gonna happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You know what, I don't understand, I'm sure 100 news stations around the country have cones out plus the major stations, maybe my cone looks somewhat similar to the NHC because I believe a track almost like what they have is correct? I'm tired of getting pestered by it, its our teams products. I read this board (and post occasionally) to learn different prospective on ongoing meteorological events, which in this case is a TC. It's not a matter of being pestered, but if I wanted to see a forecast cone, I'd go to the NHC – posting a map almost identical to the NHC's with no explanation or rationalization of your thoughts at all leaves me no more informed than I was before your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I read this board (and post occasionally) to learn different prospective on ongoing meteorological events, which in this case is a TC. It's not a matter of being pestered, but if I wanted to see a forecast cone, I'd go to the NHC – posting a map almost identical to the NHC's with no explanation or rationalization of your thoughts at all leaves me no more informed than I was before your post. Well I was giving our forecast, I'll include some thoughts in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well I was giving our forecast, I'll include some thoughts in that case. Who's "our"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 For all the trolling going on.. Don has actually managed to look better over the past few hours. Convection is now firing near the center and the 10 min GOES imagery isn't showing any outflow puffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 For all the trolling going on.. Don has actually managed to look better over the past few hours. Convection is now firing near the center and the 10 min GOES imagery isn't showing any outflow puffs. ... and there's <-80C cloud tops now... a bit south of the center, but I had forgot how the gray looked like in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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