Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Is it just me or is Don now moving due west toward the Mexican coast? LLC is moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:27Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303) Storm Number & Year: 04L in 2011 Storm Name: Don (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 16 A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 17:04:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°22'N 90°33'W (24.3667N 90.55W) B. Center Fix Location: 389 miles (626 km) to the S (184°) from New Orleans, LA, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 175° at 30kts (From the S at ~ 34.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:12:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Before we all jump to the conclusion that Don is dead, this is what the NHC had to say early on about Dolly: DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANYBETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLYDOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY ISMAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...ASESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULDREGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BYHANGING ON A TECHNICALITY. Now, conditions aren't as good in the Gulf for Don as they were for Dolly...but these growing pains aren't unheard of. I still think this can make a run towards a strong TS at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 TROPICAL STORM DON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 100 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011 ...CENTER OF DON NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 90.7W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm quite a bit more pessimistic about Don's future than I was yesterday. The SHIPS now has pretty substantial northerly to northeasterly shear developing over the next day, with magnitudes of around 15 kt. A lot of people have said that the shear is advecting dry air into the core, but this isn't necessarily the case here or in many other instances for that matter. The shear tilts the vortex such that anomalous storm-relative inflow in the low-levels occurs on the downshear half, and anomalous storm-relative outflow occurs on the upshear half. Taking into account the advection by the TC circulation itself, the most effective source-region for dry air tends to be downshear-right of the center. For more on this idea, see Fig. 6 of this paper, which shows backward trajectories in a modeled TC under easterly shear: Riemer and Montgomery (2010) This isn't always applicable to real TCs, but it seems consistent with what we're seeing with Don. I've decomposed the recon flight-level winds into storm-relative tangential and radial components, and there's definitely 5-10 m/s inflow in the western and northwestern quads, and outflow on the eastern and northeastern quads. This would be consistent with the above paper, and considering that MIMIC-TPW shows a nice blob of dry air to the west of Don, it would suggest that this air is being injected into the core and likely being brought down into the boundary layer by the persistent convective downdrafts in the south quad. The outflow boundaries shooting out of the east quad is evidence of this. I'm not sure how Don is going to deal with this going forward. TC interaction with shear is a complicated thing and very difficult to forecast. I'd go with an intensity somewhere between 50-70 kt at landfall, which is certainly more conservative than the 60-85 I had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Sweet hot tower popping near the center and little shear is evident over the LLC. Central/Western Gulf cyclones have been known to throw a curveball or two, but I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Sweet hot tower popping near the center and little shear is evident over the LLC. Central/Western Gulf cyclones have been known to throw a curveball or two, but I digress... I thought hot towers were only in eyewall's with centrifugal wind shear interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Does anyone have verification scores for the Convective Instability Tropical Center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Does anyone have verification scores for the Convective Instability Tropical Center? 0/1* *Yet to be verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Prob Map I made for Don 80% for that huge of an area would imply both a large storm and a storm significantly closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 12Z HWRF and GFDL have Don pretty much steady-state until landfall- given that and the current sat and recon trends, I think we have a real yawner on our hands. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Does anyone have verification scores for the Convective Instability Tropical Center? 60 to 70% probabilities of TS force winds anywhere in my county, seems a little bit high to me... NHC has my house right on the 20% line, and I thought that was optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 60 to 70% probabilities of TS force winds anywhere in my county, seems a little bit high to me... NHC has my house right on the 20% line, and I thought that was optimistic. yea I know, was the first of its kind, should be 50% up and down the coastline, because there is still a bit of track uncertainty. Will edit for 315pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 More accurate Don probs folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Euro North of the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Flare up is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 The great David Roth of HPC weighs in with the HPC model disco TROPICAL STORM DON...PREFERENCE: STRONGER VERSION OF THE 06Z GFS BY DEFAULT THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WESTWARD WITH THE VARIOUS LEVELS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS MID-LEVEL DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AVAILABLE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HORUS...WITH ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING TOWARDS WELL SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICAN BORDER AND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVING INCREASING TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE /ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY COMPOSED OF ECMWF MEMBERS/ TAKES ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF TEXAS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL GUIDE OUR MODEL CHOICE AND THEIR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GUIDE US TO PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ FOR MORE ON THIS COMPACT SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looks more like it will make landfall as TS, as Cheeznado averred. Its looking more and more like a yawner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 More accurate Don probs folks you just making this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 More accurate Don probs folks How could Cameron County have a 20% probability, but Hidalgo have 30%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 you just making this up? Isn't that how WxRisk got started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 How could Cameron County have a 20% probability, but Hidalgo have 30%? it doesnt really matter considering the vast change in the map over 1 hour. if it's not official we don't need it posted here in such a large format.. waste of space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Isn't that how WxRisk got started? at least he has a degree.. i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 it doesnt really matter considering the vast change in the map over 1 hour. if it's not official we don't need it posted here in such a large format.. waste of space. I think I was giving the probabilty of landfall really in those areas, not the ts winds in the first map (was mixed up) The second map to me I think could be very accurate. I also sized it down for you this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Isn't that how WxRisk got started? ? Anyway, looks like the issues I was discussing yesterday are now more popular today. Still, as expressed yesterday, it was always about tonight into Friday as this passes over the warm eddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think I was giving the probabilty of landfall really in those areas, not the ts winds in the first map (was mixed up) The second map to me I think could be very accurate. I also sized it down for you this time. So you made it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 So you made it up? You sound surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 To be fair, it looks the best it has in it's troubled, brief life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Well, mission 4 has begun, and at least it isn't as an abysmal as earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You sound surprised Nice, a 40 year old woman picking on an 18 year old because he posted a map. Your mom and dad must be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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