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Tropical Depression Don


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Like HM said, if it can get rolling and avoid destruction by Shredderola and miss the east coast trough, this could be what weenie's dreams are made of. Too many conditionals :P

is it me tho, or has this been the season of conditionals panning out. the EC Xmas blizz sorta seemed like that to me. i mean i watched in a purely meteo interested way since it was never goign to hit SWFL LOL. but i feel like this year if its a possiibility its been happening. HM speaks tho and we best listen. god what i wouldnt give for him to move to fl and be our local guy. /rant

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Another Andrew?

Too far south. Another Charley? :P Only for Josh's imagination LOL

In all seriousness, first thing I thought of when I saw the models was Charley, just from the model intensities and the track.

post-442-0-96399100-1311363939.gif

Charley was about 2 weeks or so later in the year, and a bit farther south...but a general track close to Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba was anticipated with intensification to a Cat 1 by 120 hrs. Just for kicks.

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Too far south. Another Charley? :P Only for Josh's imagination LOL

In all seriousness, first thing I thought of when I saw the models was Charley, just from the model intensities and the track.

post-442-0-96399100-1311363939.gif

Charley was about 2 weeks or so later in the year, and a bit farther south...but a general track close to Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba was anticipated with intensification to a Cat 1 by 120 hrs. Just for kicks.

I doubt there's a strong trough over the SE. More like a strong ridge after a trough passage.

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It's low-level banding features are starting to become impressive. We may be looking at the beginnings of the 4th TS this year. This season is starting to feel like the busier years we saw last decade.

The main caveat with this is I don't see how it can avoid major land interaction problems.

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Long range from CRP -

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE WAVE PASSAGE AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

BRO -

LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

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I have been surprised by storms before so if this develops I will not be too shocked. But when you look at it there really is a lot going against this thing. Land being the biggest factor, Cuba and Hispaniola tear storms apart. Seems like all of the long range forecasts are not too bullish. This has had the weenies stirring for a couple days now. I can't imagine what some people on this board will do when a real threat comes.

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THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THELESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

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