Jimbo! Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 interesting to watch. would be our first real up close with a system since we moved to sw fl, bonnie last year doesnt count as it was a glorified shower by the time it got to naples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Gulf bound? As a nice surge of tropical moisture. Or even better, almost or eve barely a tropical depression for my lawn? Perfect. Please. Wienie wishcasting on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Like HM said, if it can get rolling and avoid destruction by Shredderola and miss the east coast trough, this could be what weenie's dreams are made of. Too many conditionals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Like HM said, if it can get rolling and avoid destruction by Shredderola and miss the east coast trough, this could be what weenie's dreams are made of. Too many conditionals Another Andrew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Like HM said, if it can get rolling and avoid destruction by Shredderola and miss the east coast trough, this could be what weenie's dreams are made of. Too many conditionals is it me tho, or has this been the season of conditionals panning out. the EC Xmas blizz sorta seemed like that to me. i mean i watched in a purely meteo interested way since it was never goign to hit SWFL LOL. but i feel like this year if its a possiibility its been happening. HM speaks tho and we best listen. god what i wouldnt give for him to move to fl and be our local guy. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Only 'conditional' panning out for Texas is heat and prolonged drought. I feel amazingly optimistic even considering a strong wave or minimal TC for Texas at month's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Another Andrew? Too far south. Another Charley? Only for Josh's imagination LOL In all seriousness, first thing I thought of when I saw the models was Charley, just from the model intensities and the track. Charley was about 2 weeks or so later in the year, and a bit farther south...but a general track close to Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba was anticipated with intensification to a Cat 1 by 120 hrs. Just for kicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Another Andrew? ... stirring the pot. But for others, the Leeward islands would prevent any major hit for Florida, IMO... the W GOM, OTOH... but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Too far south. Another Charley? Only for Josh's imagination LOL In all seriousness, first thing I thought of when I saw the models was Charley, just from the model intensities and the track. Charley was about 2 weeks or so later in the year, and a bit farther south...but a general track close to Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba was anticipated with intensification to a Cat 1 by 120 hrs. Just for kicks. I doubt there's a strong trough over the SE. More like a strong ridge after a trough passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 It's low-level banding features are starting to become impressive. We may be looking at the beginnings of the 4th TS this year. This season is starting to feel like the busier years we saw last decade. The main caveat with this is I don't see how it can avoid major land interaction problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 ... stirring the pot. But for others, the Leeward islands would prevent any major hit for Florida, IMO... the W GOM, OTOH... but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Let's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Let's stir the pot a little more . This is a lot better analog (FL keys 1919 hurricane) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Let's. Let's stir the pot a little more . This is a lot better analog (FL keys 1919 hurricane) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Let's stir the pot a little more . This is a lot better analog (FL keys 1919 hurricane) That's a very unlikely scenario if a TC encounters shrederolla, maybe 1 in 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I'm not picky. I told Josh that I didn't want to go after anything but a major but a Claudette type of system sure would be nice. You can have an Anita later in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 That's a very unlikely scenario if a TC encounters shrederolla, maybe 1 in 200. Orly? Galveston 1900 Frederick 1979 If it's weak when it gets to Hispaniola, it might have a better chance afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I'm not picky. I told Josh that I didn't want to go after anything but a major but a Claudette type of system sure would be nice. You can have an Anita later in August. So you're too good for cat 2's now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Of course, 1900 was the first week of September, when the basin was probably as primed for strong storms as can be. This is 2003 Claudette time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 So you're too good for cat 2's now? Ha. I've never recovered from the disappointment of Gustav. To be honest though I'd probably jump at a 60kt ts right now if it's in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Orly? Galveston 1900 Frederick 1979 If it's weak when it gets to Hispaniola, it might have a better chance afterwards. I was thinking more about the hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula, Gulf Coast isn't my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I was thinking more about the hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula, Gulf Coast isn't my backyard. Yep, you're probably right, hence my disclaimer about FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I was thinking more about the hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula, Gulf Coast isn't my backyard. OK scorpion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Freudian slip at HPC... A TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES REACHINGTHE ERN GLFMEX BY LATE WEAK WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. JAMES/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Long range from CRP - A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS BY FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE WAVE PASSAGE AND MOISTURE INCREASE. BRO - LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I have been surprised by storms before so if this develops I will not be too shocked. But when you look at it there really is a lot going against this thing. Land being the biggest factor, Cuba and Hispaniola tear storms apart. Seems like all of the long range forecasts are not too bullish. This has had the weenies stirring for a couple days now. I can't imagine what some people on this board will do when a real threat comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Orly? Galveston 1900 well how about that. Emerging from the cheese grater just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THELESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 OK, so what's da latest? Are we gettin' a 'cane in da Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 How do you prefer your invest? Mashed or shredded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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