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Tropical Depression Don


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Not sure where the desert is, but the HDOBs earlier just North of the center showed ballpark 10ºC delta between temps and dewpoints. I do suspect land based convection is messing with inflow, although I'd guess that improves with loss of diurnal heating.

I don't have a met degree, and can't describe infinity well, however.

The land based convection is also leading to subsidence over the center of Don, which is very detrimental.

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I'm liking the tracks a lot. Intensity still blah.

Models aren't going to do well with the little storms wrt intensity...even the hurricane models struggle with trying to initialize these buggers....

It's a small system, and I expect that, barring some not-yet-progged super hostile environmental conditions, that tonight's IR collapse is just the normal pulsing these systems go through, expecially near a land mass that had tremendous convection, tossing stable air into the circulation (as evidenced by the outflow boundaries screaming to the north earlier.

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Models aren't going to do well with the little storms wrt intensity...even the hurricane models struggle with trying to initialize these buggers....

It's a small system, and I expect that, barring some not-yet-progged super hostile environmental conditions, that tonight's IR collapse is just the normal pulsing these systems go through, expecially near a land mass that had tremendous convection, tossing stable air into the circulation (as evidenced by the outflow boundaries screaming to the north earlier.

:wub:

Thank you. Folks here-- myself included-- have a way of getting too wrapped up with every fluctuation.

And I'm not terribly worried about the models. I remember they were lackluster about Karl right before it almost went up to Cat 4 in the Bay of Campeche-- another very small system. I'm not saying this is going to get that strong-- simply that, as you said, the models have trouble with these small cyclones.

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I respect Avila for not overreacting to short-term d-min thinning of the convection. As I mentioned in the chase thread, his forecast hints at something near hurricane strength coming ashore.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the convection overnight as 1) we get into the d-max hours and 2) the cyclone pulls further away from land.

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Hot, out of the oven AMSUB pass confirms this

Very interesting... just extrapolating the general storm motion between the two microwave passes shows a much more westerly motion than what was being shown from the NHC. We might see another pretty significant shift south with the guidance tonight.

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For those following on IR, the center is located somewhere near this black circle. I'm actually encouraged by this, because it seems like the llc has remained vertically stacked with the mid-level reflection despite the weakening of the convection tonight. All in all, once the convection recovers, this should still be in a favorable environment for strengthening.

23h7xg1.png

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