Tropical Depression Don

[kwt]

Wow we've got some IR hugger in here tonight I see!

For a system that has only just got upgraded and is currently in Dmin, it doesn't look that bad and at least it id firing convection still...I suspect the fact its now getting all its air sourced from the Yucatan probably isn't helping either, esp considering the dry air to its west as well...Vis imagery looks decent still though.

[tmagan]

Resultant track even more important than usual, because if you go outside the core of the storm upon landfall, you would barely even know the storm existed.

[southmdwatcher]

Don landfall, just south of Corpus 80 kts. Hopefully it just continues jogging around Texas and allows for good rainfall.

[Organizing Low]

110 kts, popo's beach house

[Organizing Low]

thx for proving these posts are totally useless to have pages of

135 knots

mx

[valkhorn]

My forecast:

Don Knotts.... get it?

Anyway, I could throw in a complete statistical outlier and go with Portland, ME at 45kts, but I won't. I'll just say Galveston at 85kts.

[TUweathermanDD]

Cone and some goodies for my forecast track/intensities

[CUmet]

I should also have added that because of his small size, these larger-scale factors may not matter as much. Does anyone have any thoughts on the "pouch squeeze play" potential here? Obviously, all sensible environmental conditions are favorable for gradual intensification. I am just trying to look for negating factors.

It's difficult to say. The drier air squeezing into the pouch is one potential negative that crossed my mind. Also, the SHIPS does have this undergoing moderate NNE shear as the 850 mb flow is not quite aligned directionally with the 200 mb flow. Generally the environment is favorable for gradual intensification as you say, but it's not perfect.

Regarding the small size and the interaction with the environment, that's also difficult to say. Many think that small TCs are more sensitive to intensity changes, and presumably to environmental forcings as well. It certainly *seems* that way subjectively from my experience of following the tropics, but I'm not aware of any studies that conclusively establish this...though perhaps someone else is.

[LakeEffectKing]

Dude, you sure are bullish about this one. Man.

I don't think of it like that...maybe calling for a MH at this point, and when I started putting together the first map around 1pm or so yesterday, maybe...but to me it was evident that the globals were hardly seeing this entity, and conditions out ahead of "whatever" was there yesterday morning were neutral to slightly positive...

[HurricaneJosh]

Y'all still thinking BRO to Corpus? It looks to me like most of the models are pointing to the area between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Granted, the model flip-flopping is to be expected, but they generally don't look that far left to me.

[beneficii]

This is also the time of day where convection often weakens. It should get a boost overnight, I would think.

Thanks. I notice in the latest images, Don is starting to develop the shape we associate with tropical cyclones, which will be probably lay the groundwork for intensification later..

[VAwxman]

Y'all still thinking BRO to Corpus? It looks to me like most of the models are pointing to the area between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Granted, the model flip-flopping is to be expected, but they generally don't look that far left to me.

I like CRP area myself as a cat one cane.

[Flexo]

Y'all still thinking BRO to Corpus? It looks to me like most of the models are pointing to the area between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Granted, the model flip-flopping is to be expected, but they generally don't look that far left to me.

Looks like most are banking on the Euro and UKMET solutions of a much more southerly track towards BRO. Of course, my personal desire would be for the GFS solutions to be correct as it hasn't rained here since January, but I do recall it having a terrible north bias with storms in this same area last year... I think it was Alex last year that the GFS wanted to ride all the way up toward Corpus 72 hours out, but the Euro held firm with its Mexico call and eventually won

South Texas could really use some rain, but we could really use some rain...

HGX:

HERE ARE THE PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST FOR
THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES AND DANEVANG:

SITE       RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF
         2/1 - 7/20   RAINFALL                NORMAL

IAH        5.05        22.68     -17.63         22.3
HOU        4.59        24.76     -20.17         18.5
CLL        7.64        18.62     -10.98         41.0
GLS        5.82        18.03     -12.21         32.4
DANEVANG   5.20        20.37     -14.47         26.4

With such a small system, if this actually does move further south toward Brownsville, Houston may not see much

[DoctorMu]

Freeport. 80kts

[TUweathermanDD]

Y'all still thinking BRO to Corpus? It looks to me like most of the models are pointing to the area between Matagorda and Galveston Bays. Granted, the model flip-flopping is to be expected, but they generally don't look that far left to me.

your thoughts on my cone, josh?

[Flexo]

I think it's going to be stronger and slower than the global models (and tropical cyclone models) are currently forecasting... so the deeper-layer more easterly flow would probably kick in and steer it more westward.

Also, with light northerly shear ongoing, I would imagine the LLC would tend to end up a bit further south (towards the stronger convection).

If the storm races faster than I'm imagining, it's going to be further north and weaker, due to its proximity to the weakness in the ridge to its west.

Forgot to reply to this, but thank you Mallow the Cloud

It's such a shame this seems so small and moisture starved. This state could've used a large tropical storm moisture blob.

[wxmx]

Let's stir the weenie pot... we got an eye!

[David Reimer]

Let's stir the weenie pot... we got an eye!

You're such an instigator!!

[wxmx]

On a more serious note, MW looks good

[#NoPoles]

on the WV loop it looks like Don's a$$ is getting sheared off

[Ed Lizard]

110 kts, popo's beach house

Wrong. 60 knots, Santiago Matamoros, Tamps.

[Ed Lizard]

I wonder if it'll perk up when the Yucatan cools down a little and the diurnally enhanced storms over land weaken.

[thewxmann]

S. Padre Island, TX, 60kt. Intensity in line with NHC and slightly more bullish than guidance. Track a little further to the west of the official one due to notorious poleward biases of guidance in these situations.

[Amped]

on the WV loop it looks like Don's a$$ is getting sheared off

Good job GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, WRF, NOGAPS and GFDL. No signifigant storm here.

[turtlehurricane]

It's gonna be messy until it gets some distance between itself and the Yucatan. The dry desert air and land based convective complexes are doing this no favors.

[Superstorm93]

[k***]

It's gonna be messy until it gets some distance between itself and the Yucatan. The dry desert air and land based convective complexes are doing this no favors.

Desert air from where?

[HurricaneJosh]

I'll chalk this up to the normal diurnal cycle. If the convection doesn't re-fire overnight, then I'll worry about it.

[Ed Lizard]

Desert air from where?

Not sure where the desert is, but the HDOBs earlier just North of the center showed ballpark 10ºC delta between temps and dewpoints. I do suspect land based convection is messing with inflow, although I'd guess that improves with loss of diurnal heating.

I don't have a met degree, and can't describe infinity well, however.

[turtlehurricane]

Desert air from where?

Yeah, desert isn't the right word. It is much drier than the surrounding maritime airmass though.