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Tropical Depression Don


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Now that this thing's been declared and properly initialized, I want to see some estimated landfall locations and intensities from more of the pros (and semi-pros, like wxmx)!

C'mon-- don't be shy... ;)

Port Mansfield, TX. Intensity range 60-85 kt, with best estimate 75 kt.

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Now that this thing's been declared and properly initialized, I want to see some estimated landfall locations and intensities from more of the pros (and semi-pros, like wxmx)!

C'mon-- don't be shy... ;)

Port Aransas, TX, Saturday 2 A.M., 95 MPH.

and dont think I'm a pro :lol:

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Here are some of my thoughts on Don this afternoon... i'm pressed for time, but my estimated landfall location is somewhere on South Padre Island in around 60 hours at 90mph.

http://philstropical...d-to-intensify/

awesome writeup, i love how you link the meteorological terms to images to help beginners like me understand precisely what you are discussing. :thumbsup:

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Now that this thing's been declared and properly initialized, I want to see some estimated landfall locations and intensities from more of the pros (and semi-pros, like wxmx)!

C'mon-- don't be shy... ;)

Your up to something... and I support you!

Port Mansfield, TX... 80 kts. (Though that all goes out the window with RI, which could happen)

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90kts, Nueces County.

Presentation looking better and better, I'm a little concerned this system may undergo RI in the next 24hrs, though I'd like to see the next microwave pass and how the inner core is going before getting ahead of myself!

Hence the agressive forecast, I'd give it a 5-10% chance for MH and maybe 2-3% chance for a Celia type explosion in strength...

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Absolutely. It looks likely at this point that many areas in extreme drought at least in TX will see some relief by the end of the week. Hopefully they won't go from severe drought to severe flooding - they need copious amounts of rain, but not too heavy or for too long.

Very true...probably unlike most people, I'm actually rooting for this storm to remain somewhat disorganized while moving along at good clip. A stronger, tightly wound-up system will most likely end up further south down the coast, robbing me of most of the moisture we desparately need here in this part of the state. I'm really concerned this system may actually end up doing what the ECMWF is forecasting, leaving us up here with disappointing rainfall accumulations. In addition, I'm not liking some of the recent GFS runs showing that oppressive ridge moving back west over or near the state of Texas for the mid and long term. Just my thoughts at this time. We shall see.

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RI, IMO is not in the immediate offing...there are outflow boundaries flinging off to the NNW from the NE'ern quad, which is definitely a sign that some work needs to be done in the short term....and there appears to be some stable air just to the west of the system, with only the high cirrus canopy evident.

That said, convection around the inner core is still maintaining itself, and being a small system has some advantages in negating some of the otherwise negative peripheral conditions....

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Don seems to be growing bigger and becoming more organized.

I'm sorry. It is growing bigger, but it actually seems to have gotten less organized, as the cloud tops have come down somewhat near the SLPC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

Don seems to be interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula as there are much higher cloud tops now over the Peninsula leading up to near the SLPC.

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I find it really interesting that CUmet and Jorge (wxmx) have almost the exact same forecast independently. Jorge told me his a couple of hours ago via Skype, and of course CUmet wasn't privy to that conversation.

If those two agree, of course I'm bound to take that solution seriously.

100-110mph....S. Kennedy Co...home of........no one..................... except in 2 days...Josh, Cory, and some BASTARD!!

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I'm sorry. It is growing bigger, but it actually seems to have gotten less organized, as the cloud tops have come down somewhat near the SLPC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html

Don seems to be interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula as there are much higher cloud tops now over the Peninsula leading up to near the SLPC.

This is also the time of day where convection often weakens. It should get a boost overnight, I would think.

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Convection is weakening a little with the center, thats true but I'd hardly say its getting less organised, the new convection developing is just the next wave of bursting that IMO may eventually form the basis of a CDO.

The dry air does have to be the main concern for sure, but if you step back and run a loop for the last 4-6hrs I think you'd have to say it looks better now then it did 6hrs ago.

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If you loop it long over the day, you can see it really establishing a nice outflow pattern. That if anything is concerning. I may be reach but I think this becomes a major and strikes land. Where I don't know. I hope not Houston, we aren't ready for anything > than Ike.

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Obviously the time frame to watch for significant development is tomorrow night into Friday (just before landfall) as it crosses a decent 26°C depth (max 100-125 although it could end up missing the heart of the eddy). The thing to watch is the easterly 20-30kt flow and mid-level dry air that will reside east of this thing while this is happening. Between that and upstream arid conditions over Texas, this system may never quite reach major status.

I should also have added that because of his small size, these larger-scale factors may not matter as much. Does anyone have any thoughts on the "pouch squeeze play" potential here? Obviously, all sensible environmental conditions are favorable for gradual intensification. I am just trying to look for negating factors.

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