Mallow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 He's an amature at graphic design.....but the kid can school anyone in statistics!! And I'm pretty much in agreement with your forecast (that you impressively issued a couple days ago), FWIW. I make the graphic like that so I can do a direct comparison to the Wunderground track map later, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like Don is born. Awesome name. Seems like the overall consensus with the best posters on here is a solid cat 1. With a ceiling as high as a cat 2. This could be a really good warmup for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Based on the VDM center position, it appears that the center is very close to the deepest convection and no longer to the north of it. This coupled with the much-improved outflow in the western and northern quadrants suggest that whatever vortex tilt and shear-influence that Don was undergoing earlier has now ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like Don is born. Awesome name. Seems like the overall consensus with the best posters on here is a solid cat 1. With a ceiling as high as a cat 2. This could be a really good warmup for the season I feel like I shouldn't be saying this, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the outside possibility that this becomes a major 'cane. None of the models are showing it, but given its small size and somewhat favorable environment, and if it spends the next 60-72 hrs over the Gulf, it's a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I feel like I shouldn't be saying this, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the outside possibility that this becomes a major 'cane. None of the models are showing it, but given its small size and somewhat favorable environment, and if it spends the next 60-72 hrs over the Gulf, it's a possibility. Highly unlikely with only two days over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Track is gonna be interesting based on wind probs. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 272053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 No watches/warnings this advisory. Not in the cone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 We now officially have Don per the NHC. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Highly unlikely with only two days over water. Yes, if it makes landfall in 48 hours, it's going to be weaker (probably cat 1 max), of course. Probably further north, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER... AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/ GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR. WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Nicely improved outflow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yes, if it makes landfall in 48 hours, it's going to be weaker (probably cat 1 max), of course. Probably further north, too. And two days for a system this size is an eternity. This isn't Ike or Katrina, this can bomb very quickly if it gets its act together (which it seems to have done) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 And two days for a system this size is an eternity. This isn't Ike or Katrina, this can bomb very quickly if it gets its act together (which it seems to have done) Agreed. However, if it is faster (and further north), it's going to have a slightly more hostile environment to work with. But "best case scenario" for this system would probably include a period of RI, which is why I suggested cat 3 may not be completely unreachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Nicely improved outflow: Beautiful, looks like the north side is lacking but the rest looks nice, he is breathing nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Here is my first forecast track... discussion to follow. I am taking it up to 90mph, which I think is pretty aggressive at this time. Its payed off so far with this system, so why not? This is obviously much higher than most of the guidance, which is really playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Here is my first forecast track... discussion to follow. I am taking it up to 90mph, which I think is pretty aggressive at this time. Its payed of so far with this system, so why not? This is obviously much higher than most of the guidance, which is really playing catch up. Wow-- pretty hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Tropical storm Don is well on its way to hurricane status IMO. Look at how much better organized its gotten over the last few hours. As mallow said earlier, wouldnt rule out this becoming a major. Does anyone know if Charley 04 was predicted to become a major or as strong as it was? It was a fairly small storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 This could be really good news for the interior of Texas and into Oklahoma. If Don should remain pedestrian in terms of intensity, the system could still transport a lot of P-WAT into an area that desperately needs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Wow-- pretty hawt. Do it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Do it already. He is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Obviously the time frame to watch for significant development is tomorrow night into Friday (just before landfall) as it crosses a decent 26°C depth (max 100-125 although it could end up missing the heart of the eddy). The thing to watch is the easterly 20-30kt flow and mid-level dry air that will reside east of this thing while this is happening. Between that and upstream arid conditions over Texas, this system may never quite reach major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 And I'm pretty much in agreement with your forecast (that you impressively issued a couple days ago), FWIW. I make the graphic like that so I can do a direct comparison to the Wunderground track map later, btw. Aww....thanks Mallo! Your maps are fine....I like to play to the crowd! BTW, I'm in your camp wrt this attaining MH status....I'd put it at about 10%, but I haven't looked closely at the progged shear, dry air, etc. but quickly glancing, there is nothing of major note that would preclude this from MH, except for the forward speed might be a tad high in about a day... Hey....the first "official" position of Don, hit my centermark!! Whoo hoo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 My current stats (nhc data) and location for Don. Cone coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Now that this thing's been declared and properly initialized, I want to see some estimated landfall locations and intensities from more of the pros (and semi-pros, like wxmx)! C'mon-- don't be shy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Do it already. Sorry to go OT, but where've you been, dude?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Seadrift, TX...Friday evening...75kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Here are some of my thoughts on Don this afternoon... i'm pressed for time, but my estimated landfall location is somewhere on South Padre Island in around 60 hours at 90mph. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/27/tropical-storm-don-forms-forecasted-to-intensify/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Now that this thing's been declared and properly initialized, I want to see some estimated landfall locations and intensities from more of the pros (and semi-pros, like wxmx)! C'mon-- don't be shy... *sigh* 85 KT, Bretville, TX (Aka, Kenedy County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 This could be really good news for the interior of Texas and into Oklahoma. If Don should remain pedestrian in terms of intensity, the system could still transport a lot of P-WAT into an area that desperately needs it. Absolutely. It looks likely at this point that many areas in extreme drought at least in TX will see some relief by the end of the week. Hopefully they won't go from severe drought to severe flooding - they need copious amounts of rain, but not too heavy or for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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