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Tropical Depression Don


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He's an amature at graphic design.....but the kid can school anyone in statistics!! ;)

:lol:

And I'm pretty much in agreement with your forecast (that you impressively issued a couple days ago), FWIW. :thumbsup:

I make the graphic like that so I can do a direct comparison to the Wunderground track map later, btw.

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Based on the VDM center position, it appears that the center is very close to the deepest convection and no longer to the north of it. This coupled with the much-improved outflow in the western and northern quadrants suggest that whatever vortex tilt and shear-influence that Don was undergoing earlier has now ended.

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Looks like Don is born. Awesome name. Seems like the overall consensus with the best posters on here is a solid cat 1. With a ceiling as high as a cat 2.

This could be a really good warmup for the season :thumbsup:

I feel like I shouldn't be saying this, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the outside possibility that this becomes a major 'cane. None of the models are showing it, but given its small size and somewhat favorable environment, and if it spends the next 60-72 hrs over the Gulf, it's a possibility.

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I feel like I shouldn't be saying this, but I certainly wouldn't rule out the outside possibility that this becomes a major 'cane. None of the models are showing it, but given its small size and somewhat favorable environment, and if it spends the next 60-72 hrs over the Gulf, it's a possibility.

Highly unlikely with only two days over water.

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Track is gonna be interesting based on wind probs.

000

WTNT34 KNHC 272053

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011

400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

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We now officially have Don per the NHC.

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011

400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 87.0W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN

THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS

COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST. DON IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A GENERAL

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND

APPROACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM

MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS

1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011

400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED

SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE

MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...

AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES

OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL

STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS

ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD

OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF

A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE

NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST

THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY

TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS

EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE

THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE

GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE

GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/

GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER

TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE

EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.

DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE

GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE

THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF

THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF

MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN

TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST

AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR

INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET

STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

TEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.2N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 28/1800Z 24.5N 90.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 29/0600Z 25.8N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 29/1800Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 30/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

96H 31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

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Yes, if it makes landfall in 48 hours, it's going to be weaker (probably cat 1 max), of course. Probably further north, too.

And two days for a system this size is an eternity. This isn't Ike or Katrina, this can bomb very quickly if it gets its act together (which it seems to have done)

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And two days for a system this size is an eternity. This isn't Ike or Katrina, this can bomb very quickly if it gets its act together (which it seems to have done)

Agreed. However, if it is faster (and further north), it's going to have a slightly more hostile environment to work with. But "best case scenario" for this system would probably include a period of RI, which is why I suggested cat 3 may not be completely unreachable.

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Tropical storm Don is well on its way to hurricane status IMO. Look at how much better organized its gotten over the last few hours. As mallow said earlier, wouldnt rule out this becoming a major. Does anyone know if Charley 04 was predicted to become a major or as strong as it was? It was a fairly small storm as well.

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Obviously the time frame to watch for significant development is tomorrow night into Friday (just before landfall) as it crosses a decent 26°C depth (max 100-125 although it could end up missing the heart of the eddy). The thing to watch is the easterly 20-30kt flow and mid-level dry air that will reside east of this thing while this is happening. Between that and upstream arid conditions over Texas, this system may never quite reach major status.

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:lol:

And I'm pretty much in agreement with your forecast (that you impressively issued a couple days ago), FWIW. :thumbsup:

I make the graphic like that so I can do a direct comparison to the Wunderground track map later, btw.

Aww....thanks Mallo! Your maps are fine....I like to play to the crowd! ;)

BTW, I'm in your camp wrt this attaining MH status....I'd put it at about 10%, but I haven't looked closely at the progged shear, dry air, etc. but quickly glancing, there is nothing of major note that would preclude this from MH, except for the forward speed might be a tad high in about a day...

Hey....the first "official" position of Don, hit my centermark!! Whoo hoo!! :arrowhead:

90lq.jpg

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This could be really good news for the interior of Texas and into Oklahoma. If Don should remain pedestrian in terms of intensity, the system could still transport a lot of P-WAT into an area that desperately needs it.

Absolutely. It looks likely at this point that many areas in extreme drought at least in TX will see some relief by the end of the week. Hopefully they won't go from severe drought to severe flooding - they need copious amounts of rain, but not too heavy or for too long.

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