Riptide Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 That's why they need 3 thread per storm...there are 690 weenies in every thread I remember when it was a good thing to be weenie. Anyways, looks like 90L is blowing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 RECON is climbing out of Keesler... Better late than never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 My guess is landfall as strong TS or weak cat 1- GFDL still weak, other intensity models better but still probably a tad underdone. May hit no-mans land north of Brownsville/south of Corpus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $ FORECASTER BEVEN The proverbial cherry is ready to pop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 FYI.... 12z Euro run showing weak system tracking to just south of Brownsville. Not too diff from old 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 It's going to be a minimal TS. It's not like he's making a flight into hurricane Janet or something. I bet it's more than a minimal TS by the time Zach is in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 FYI.... 12z Euro run showing weak system tracking to just south of Brownsville. Not too diff from old 00z run. Take your hyping, model regurgitating analysis to storm2k! j/k man, how the heck are you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I bet it's more than a minimal TS by the time Zach is in there. You'd better hope, mr ballsy forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 FYI.... 12z Euro run showing weak system tracking to just south of Brownsville. Not too diff from old 00z run. 0z was a bit north of the border, 12z is closer to yesterdays run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Take your hyping, model regurgitating analysis to storm2k! j/k man, how the heck are you!! Hehehe... I'm good man! Tropics always bring me back here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Hehehe... I'm good man! Tropics always bring me back here! Indeed! Well, I guess this storm is a problem then if it is bringing you Houston guys out of the woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Indeed! Well, I guess this storm is a problem then if it is bringing you Houston guys out of the woodwork. Stop the senseless banter and give a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Indeed! Well, I guess this storm is a problem then if it is bringing you Houston guys out of the woodwork. Just trying to keep a grasp on reality, since local TV will be screaming Armageddon on the news in the few hours.... ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Just trying to keep a grasp on reality, since local TV will be screaming Armageddon on the news in the few hours.... ugh. FILL YOUR GAS TANKS NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looks like Don will be Dolly's li'l brother... Radar presentation is getting better by the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Stop the senseless banter and give a forecast. -AMO ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Just trying to keep a grasp on reality, since local TV will be screaming Armageddon on the news in the few hours.... ugh. I don't know if still would extend my invitation to the Purple Cow. It's all fancy schmancy now with the after Ike upgrade. Utensils, grill is clean, working toilets etc... Just not the same Glad to see you back with some of the '08' analogies out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Stop the senseless banter and give a forecast. You first! Just trying to keep a grasp on reality, since local TV will be screaming Armageddon on the news in the few hours.... ugh. I can only imagine. -AMO ftw... Touche, oh and f you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Recon slowing and descending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Recon slowing and descending. I'm not sure if all the sensors are working. But I don't know enough about it to state that with any cenrtainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm not sure if all the sensors are working. But I don't know enough about it to state that with any cenrtainty. Ed.. The HDOB's tell you the altitude. The obs are 30 seconds apart.. If the space between the HDOB's are shorter then its slowing down. In fact you can even measure and calculate the speed of the aircraft based upon that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Hot tower giving a warm welcome to the HH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The 12z ECWMF came in stronger with the vorticity and no surprise, there is a shift southward in recognition of the mid to upper level flow steering the storm more than the low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Ed.. The HDOB's tell you the altitude. The obs are 30 seconds apart.. If the space between the HDOB's are shorter then its slowing down. In fact you can even measure and calculate the speed of the aircraft based upon that. That wasn't what I was talking about, but it doesn't matter now, I see all the data. I will say, 8 or 9ºC delta between temp and dewpoint North of 90L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The 12z ECWMF came in stronger with the vorticity and no surprise, there is a shift southward in recognition of the mid to upper level flow steering the storm more than the low level flow. Euro had a touch of a South bias on Arlene, but everything considered, Cheeznado's forecast, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, sounds best to me, strong TS or minimal hurricane between BRO and CRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Rainbow IR coupled with Cancun Radar and HH inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Rainbow IR coupled with Cancun Radar and HH inbound. Nice overlay... looks like the center is on the NE side of the convective blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 One of the odder sets of data I have seen from Recon. Very light winds north of the system (never going above 20kts out of the North East), then a much stronger southern part with 40kt west winds. Rather strange for a system heading westward. Pressure down around 1006mb, though not the center 185800 2211N 08716W 9751 00300 0093 +225 +156 044006 008 011 000 00 185830 2210N 08714W 9753 00298 0092 +229 +154 027006 006 006 000 03 185900 2209N 08713W 9751 00299 0090 +232 +153 348005 006 004 001 00 185930 2208N 08711W 9750 00296 0088 +236 +153 314007 008 006 000 00 190000 2207N 08710W 9755 00292 0087 +227 +154 301011 013 008 001 00 190030 2205N 08708W 9750 00295 0086 +225 +156 299013 014 011 003 00 190100 2204N 08706W 9754 00290 0085 +227 +156 301018 019 013 004 00 190130 2203N 08705W 9753 00288 0081 +228 +157 303020 023 020 004 00 190200 2203N 08705W 9753 00288 0077 +226 +157 297023 023 024 006 00 190230 2201N 08702W 9733 00301 0075 +228 +157 285026 028 025 004 00 190300 2200N 08700W 9737 00295 0071 +238 +156 280029 030 023 003 03 190330 2159N 08659W 9729 00298 0066 +247 +155 271033 034 028 003 00 190400 2158N 08657W 9741 00285 0064 +245 +155 262036 038 030 000 03 190430 2156N 08656W 9732 00296 0066 +241 +157 264039 040 028 001 00 190500 2155N 08655W 9735 00298 0071 +235 +158 267038 039 026 002 00 190530 2153N 08654W 9741 00298 0078 +228 +157 262035 036 021 003 00 190600 2152N 08653W 9740 00301 0082 +221 +156 261033 033 024 005 00 190630 2151N 08652W 9736 00305 0084 +218 +153 259033 033 024 006 00 190700 2149N 08651W 9733 00310 0086 +221 +150 256035 038 025 009 03 190730 2148N 08650W 9743 00300 0091 +202 +147 250038 039 022 017 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 looks like the first pass missed the center, but the got FL winds of 40 knots with reliable SFMR at 30 knots. All westerly winds too, so this is certainly a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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