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Tropical Depression Don

janetjanet998

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Ok, not great organization...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20110727.1201.f17.91h.90L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.21.9N.86.5W.64pc.jpg

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/thumbnails/tc_thumbs/20110727.1143.f16.91h.90L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.21.9N.86.5W.45pc.jpg

NOTE: The images are safe, they are from the Navy, which doesn't have a "trusted certificate" for their site. Just proceed.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

I hope this isn't a silly question- re GFDL. How does the fine inner grid lose 90L while the outer grid still has a closed low for several time periods?

If at any point there is no closed isobar, the inner mesh is dropped in the model from that point forward. There is nothing stopping the closed low from reforming in the outer mesh after that though.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

A busy RECON schedule ahead...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 27 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2011
        TCPOD NUMBER.....11-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA
      FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
      A. 28/1200,1800Z          A. 29/0000Z
      B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE    B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
      C. 28/1000Z               C. 28/1730Z
      D. 23.9N 90.2W            D. NA
      E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z   E. NA
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
      FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42    FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
      A. 29/0000Z               A. 29/0000,0600Z
      B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE    B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
      C. 28/2000Z               C. 28/2215Z
      D. 25.1N 92.3W            D. 25.1N 92.3W
      E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z    E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
      FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
      A. 29/1200Z
      B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
      C. 29/0800Z
      D. 26.4N 94.3W
      E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES.

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Why are they flying the G-IV so close to landfall? Get it out there today, plz.

It takes a couple days to get flights going, they started making moves yesterday morning.

Certainly looks like we have a tropical cyclone now. Recon could easily find a TS since the circulation is so vigorous on vis.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

It takes a couple days to get flights going, they started making moves yesterday morning.

Certainly looks like we have a tropical cyclone now. Recon could easily find a TS since the circulation is so vigorous on vis.

Yeah, probably. Convection has gone up, though it has to drop the "cape" that might be robbing some inflow to the LLC. There has been some Nerly shear, but it looks like it has diminished some the last few hours, and most of the LLC is now under deep convection, with the exception of part of the nern circulation. The GFS is probably out to lunch with it's nern solution, and the Euro will probably verify better. The slower the invest moves, the higher the chance it takes the more southern route, since the ridge will be in restrengthening and building westward mode near landfall.

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
Posted

Yeah, probably. Convection has gone up, though it has to drop the "cape" that might be robbing some inflow to the LLC. There has been some Nerly shear, but it looks like it has diminished some the last few hours, and most of the LLC is now under deep convection, with the exception of part of the nern circulation. The GFS is probably out to lunch with it's nern solution, and the Euro will probably verify better. The slower the invest moves, the higher the chance it takes the more southern route, since the ridge will be in restrengthening and building westward mode near landfall.

I agree.. the GFS/GFDL solutions absolutely make no sense. As we've seen in previous years for the most part, if the GFS says north and the Euro says west, the best bet is to take the Euro.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Cancun is reporting light WSW winds, the airport is south of the city, so it reports calm winds or very light WSW winds, but 2 coop stations in the city are reporting light WSW winds. Normal are trade (east) winds this time of year.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

First light visible confirms the presence of a tight low level circulation. It is highly likely recon will find a TD or a TS depending on the wind intensity this afternoon. Surface observations also support the presence of a surface circulation. The resemblance of this storm to Bonnie 2004 continues to be incredible.

2rw146a.png

With that said though, the convective organization looks to be pretty poor, with the vast majority of the convection on the southern semicircle. Radar looks rather chaotic and certainly not characteristic of a tight wind core. I'd blame the current disorganized convective appearance on the dry air nearby the circulation rather than vertical wind shear since most of the upper level flow continues to be southerly.

5b37si.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Local KHOU-TV 11 forum private sector pro-met, the mysterious "WxMan57" who specializes in energy sector forecasting, cryptically alluded to 90L reaching hurricane force before a Texas landfall.

Something like 600 miles of coast, and he didn't mention what part of it.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

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There appears to be little shear right over the center..looking at the satellite, there is decent shear on the NE side of the storm with upper level winds out of the north ....there appears to be some southeast shear just west of the system..but the system itself appears to be in between the two within a small area of little shear

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Outflow is quite restricted in the NW quad, and it appears that upper level convergence thanks to the ULL in the extreme SW BoC is the culprit. Models move it out of the way in the next 24 hours, with a more easterly upper level flow starting soon thereafter.

J1I6z.gif

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS has a much better representation of the storm than the past few model runs... and no surprise that it shows a more vertically deep solution as it also takes the storm significantly further west than the last couple model runs. Note the animation I have below. The strength of the 500mb ridge is relatively unchanged, but the vorticity at 850mb does undergo a significant increase, which shifts the track southwest over the past four runs.

4lowp5.gif

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
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There appears to be little shear right over the center..looking at the satellite, there is decent shear on the NE side of the storm with upper level winds out of the north ....there appears to be some southeast shear just west of the system..but the system itself appears to be in between the two within a small area of little shear

This updated just now.. 5-10kts of shear over the center

post-142-0-15816800-1311782739.gif

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VAwxman

VAwxman

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS has a much better representation of the storm than the past few model runs... and no surprise that it shows a more vertically deep solution it also takes the storm significantly further west than the last couple model runs. Note the animation I have below. The strength of the 500mb ridge is relatively unchanged, but the vorticity at 850mb does undergo a significant increase, which shifts the track southwest over the past four runs.

Nice loop! And good job with this thing so far.

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CUmet

CUmet

Posted
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The shear analyses out there don't suggest that the shear is very strong, somewhere on the order of 5-10 knots from the north. The way that the convective tower has stuck to south of the center though is consistent with a shear response, although this is presuming that the center is where I think it is. The outflow boundary going out of the upshear side is pretty characteristic as well. The outflow is starting to expand on the western quad however, and the upper-level flow should turn more easterly with time. I'm still looking at a most-likely scenario of a Cat 1 landfall, with possibilities ranging from strong TS to moderate Cat 2. Of course that depends somewhat on how strong this thing already is...chances are it's already a TS.

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