turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 1:31 AM, Ed Mahmoud said: Not sure where the desert is, but the HDOBs earlier just North of the center showed ballpark 10ºC delta between temps and dewpoints. I do suspect land based convection is messing with inflow, although I'd guess that improves with loss of diurnal heating. I don't have a met degree, and can't describe infinity well, however. The land based convection is also leading to subsidence over the center of Don, which is very detrimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Observed 12Z sounding MMMD Not as much moisture above the immediate surface as I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Doesn't look good for a hurricane at landfall.. hopefully things change tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm liking the tracks a lot. Intensity still blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 1:47 AM, HurricaneJosh said: I'm liking the tracks a lot. Intensity still blah. Models aren't going to do well with the little storms wrt intensity...even the hurricane models struggle with trying to initialize these buggers.... It's a small system, and I expect that, barring some not-yet-progged super hostile environmental conditions, that tonight's IR collapse is just the normal pulsing these systems go through, expecially near a land mass that had tremendous convection, tossing stable air into the circulation (as evidenced by the outflow boundaries screaming to the north earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 2:02 AM, LakeEffectKing said: Models aren't going to do well with the little storms wrt intensity...even the hurricane models struggle with trying to initialize these buggers.... It's a small system, and I expect that, barring some not-yet-progged super hostile environmental conditions, that tonight's IR collapse is just the normal pulsing these systems go through, expecially near a land mass that had tremendous convection, tossing stable air into the circulation (as evidenced by the outflow boundaries screaming to the north earlier. Thank you. Folks here-- myself included-- have a way of getting too wrapped up with every fluctuation. And I'm not terribly worried about the models. I remember they were lackluster about Karl right before it almost went up to Cat 4 in the Bay of Campeche-- another very small system. I'm not saying this is going to get that strong-- simply that, as you said, the models have trouble with these small cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Intensity models have this peaking AOA 55 knots... We'll see what happens. Never was fond of midget TC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 2:40 AM, Weatherkid#27 said: CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS. That appears to be north of Corpus Cristi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 2:43 AM, beneficii said: That appears to be north of Corpus Cristi. Just south of Galveston. North of Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Port Mansfield is South of Corpus, and San Luis Pass is the pass between Galveston and Surfside. Don looks sickly tonight, the combination of upper-level convergence and proximity to land is causing him to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 Worth noting that buoys near Don are recording sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 2:59 AM, Floydbuster said: <a href='http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='external'>http://www.ndbc.noaa...h.php?storm=at4</a>Worth noting that buoys near Don are recording sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Hypercane alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I respect Avila for not overreacting to short-term d-min thinning of the convection. As I mentioned in the chase thread, his forecast hints at something near hurricane strength coming ashore. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the convection overnight as 1) we get into the d-max hours and 2) the cyclone pulls further away from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 2:59 AM, Floydbuster said: http://www.ndbc.noaa...h.php?storm=at4 Worth noting that buoys near Don are recording sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Might want to shorten the search radius and pick buoys near the track and not out off the west coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Convection starting to fire near the center again, as the convection over land weakens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Don will look pretty good by dusk...structure is healthy and shear is lowering significantly, as the ULL is well far away now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 0z GFS has folded... Corpus Christi in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 This is Don at landfall around CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 4:03 AM, wxmx said: This is Don at landfall around CC Sprinklecane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Video Update on Don: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 A bit old, but shows that the underlying structure of Don is quite healthy (timestamp indicates that the MW image was taken while convection was waning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 You beat me to it Jorge. The most recent microwave pass (a Windsat pass which was 4 hours ago) also suggests that the storm center might be further south than the NHC position at 11pm closer to the Yucatan coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 4:49 AM, phil882 said: The most recent microwave pass (a Windsat pass which was 4 hours ago) suggests that the storm center is further south the NHC position at 11pm closer to the Yucatan coast. Hot out of the oven AMSUB pass confirms this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 It just needs to get away from the Yucatan and then it should ramp up. Probably shooting for a Dolly type storm as my honest opion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 On 7/28/2011 at 4:52 AM, wxmx said: Hot, out of the oven AMSUB pass confirms this Very interesting... just extrapolating the general storm motion between the two microwave passes shows a much more westerly motion than what was being shown from the NHC. We might see another pretty significant shift south with the guidance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Same with ASCAT, though sometimes there are positioning glitches with it, this time it fits nicely with the MWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 For those following on IR, the center is located somewhere near this black circle. I'm actually encouraged by this, because it seems like the llc has remained vertically stacked with the mid-level reflection despite the weakening of the convection tonight. All in all, once the convection recovers, this should still be in a favorable environment for strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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