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Heat Wave Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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All time records set in much of the northeast.

Monthly departures at ridiculously high levels.

A two day relaxation to normal or just above normal temps and then another torch.

August will roast just like July has.

The sizzle will not be denied

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All time records set in much of the northeast.

Monthly departures at ridiculously high levels.

A two day relaxation to normal or just above normal temps and then another torch.

August will roast just like July has.

The sizzle will not be denied

I won't speak for all of August but I am noticing something intriguing up N.

The AO index is positive for the first time in months. More so, nearing August 1st in doing so. Also, the GLAAM is trending to neutralize from its nader, which is an indication that mean torque is elevating - that supplies at least a background signal for increased zonal flow. Zonal flows tend to lead to the burgeoning of subtropical ridges... Another way to back into this conclusion is to observe that the JJA, NAO/GLAAM correlation coefficient is roughly .2 - not a huge positive value, no, but for atmospheric parlance that's actually a decent suggestion there for one reflecting - to some degree - the others phase state. It simple terms, with the AAM shedding the negative vibe, the NAO may tend to shed some of that negative vibe, too. The AO being positive is also a nice fit for that seeing as the AO and NAO obviously share domain space.

This is good for winter weather enthusiasts, though it tortures their wait. The reason it is good is that there is a fairly robust correlation between +AO phase states in ASO, leading -A0 during the winter. The reason (it is thought) that lag is there is because the +AO contracts storminess at high latitudes toward the poles where land-based snow and ice accumulation gets underway hard and fast and early. This lengthens the residence of the cryosphere, which is a huge positive feed-back on pooling negative anomalies for later transport scenarios. Throw in that we've entered a multi-decadal -NAO means good things for transport...

The index is not hugely positive, but is so nonetheless. Moreover, the last months verifications show somewhat of a bias to keep it negative by the GFS ensemble system - not hugely so, but there just the same. Bottom line, the longer the AO is positive in August --> September, the better.

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I won't speak for all of August but I am noticing something intriguing up N.

The AO index is positive for the first time in months. More so, nearing August 1st in doing so. Also, the GLAAM is trending to neutralize from its nader, which is an indication that mean torque is elevating - that supplies at least a background signal for increased zonal flow. Zonal flows tend to lead to the burgeoning of subtropical ridges... Another way to back into this conclusion is to observe that the JJA, NAO/GLAAM correlation coefficient is roughly .2 - not a huge positive value, no, but for atmospheric parlance that's actually a decent suggestion there for one reflecting - to some degree - the others phase state. It simple terms, with the AAM shedding the negative vibe, the NAO may tend to shed some of that negative vibe, too. The AO being positive is also a nice fit for that seeing as the AO and NAO obviously share domain space.

This is good for winter weather enthusiasts, though it tortures their wait. The reason it is good is that there is a fairly robust correlation between +AO phase states in ASO, leading -A0 during the winter. The reason (it is thought) that lag is there is because the +AO contracts storminess at high latitudes toward the poles where land-based snow and ice accumulation gets underway hard and fast and early. This lengthens the residence of the cryosphere, which is a huge positive feed-back on pooling negative anomalies for later transport scenarios. Throw in that we've entered a multi-decadal -NAO means good things for transport...

The index is not hugely positive, but is so nonetheless. Moreover, the last months verifications show somewhat of a bias to keep it negative by the GFS ensemble system - not hugely so, but there just the same. Bottom line, the longer the AO is positive in August --> September, the better.

Thanks for your very insightful post, John.... this explains my hot summer ----> snowy winter idea really well. I dont mind it scorching to oblivion right now, and then reaping white gold in the winter :P

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Its amazing how cool 80/66 feels at 8 pm after going through a few days of heat. Imagine what its been like in the heartland.

Yeah, beautiful day in the North Country... high of 77F (actually 5 straight hours today of 76-77F readings) with very low humidity and a nice breeze.

Currently 68/56... dropped 8F last hour and continues to tumble as the sun drops behing Mansfield's ridgeline. BTV calling for a low near 50F. Maybe we can sneak into the upper 40s if we are lucky as this place radiates nicely.

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Yeah, beautiful day in the North Country... high of 77F (actually 5 straight hours today of 76-77F readings) with very low humidity and a nice breeze.

Currently 68/56... dropped 8F last hour and continues to tumble as the sun drops behing Mansfield's ridgeline. BTV calling for a low near 50F. Maybe we can sneak into the upper 40s if we are lucky as this place radiates nicely.

Different world up there, enjoy it!

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I won't speak for all of August but I am noticing something intriguing up N.

The AO index is positive for the first time in months. More so, nearing August 1st in doing so. Also, the GLAAM is trending to neutralize from its nader, which is an indication that mean torque is elevating - that supplies at least a background signal for increased zonal flow. Zonal flows tend to lead to the burgeoning of subtropical ridges... Another way to back into this conclusion is to observe that the JJA, NAO/GLAAM correlation coefficient is roughly .2 - not a huge positive value, no, but for atmospheric parlance that's actually a decent suggestion there for one reflecting - to some degree - the others phase state. It simple terms, with the AAM shedding the negative vibe, the NAO may tend to shed some of that negative vibe, too. The AO being positive is also a nice fit for that seeing as the AO and NAO obviously share domain space.

This is good for winter weather enthusiasts, though it tortures their wait. The reason it is good is that there is a fairly robust correlation between +AO phase states in ASO, leading -A0 during the winter. The reason (it is thought) that lag is there is because the +AO contracts storminess at high latitudes toward the poles where land-based snow and ice accumulation gets underway hard and fast and early. This lengthens the residence of the cryosphere, which is a huge positive feed-back on pooling negative anomalies for later transport scenarios. Throw in that we've entered a multi-decadal -NAO means good things for transport...

The index is not hugely positive, but is so nonetheless. Moreover, the last months verifications show somewhat of a bias to keep it negative by the GFS ensemble system - not hugely so, but there just the same. Bottom line, the longer the AO is positive in August --> September, the better.

:snowman: :snowman: :snowman: we hope!

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71/60, spent the day in the HV golfing, very warm down there. Looks like day after day of 70's now. The descent has begun.

How did you play? Looks like a very nice week for Gods country

Next 7 days temp wise from box for West Chesterfield Mass

79

79

80

85

86

85

80

Enjoy it Pete!

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How did you play? Looks like a very nice week for Gods country

Next 7 days temp wise from box for West Chesterfield Mass

79

79

80

85

86

85

80

Enjoy it Pete!

My rib injury was much more of a factor than I anticipated. Driver and long irons caused pain uncoiling from the top of the swing. Consequently, I was pushing/blocking some shots. Short game is solid though. Copake Country Club, nice course. If you want to know what the temps in my backyard are likely to be use Box's forecast for Worthington. West Chesterfield's forecast is for the valley floor at 899'. 70's the next 3 days.

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Looking at the broader picture, New England was actually not in the optimal ridge positionmost of this July, yet it is averaging warmer than last year. The country is just on fire this Summer.

To put that into perspective last July at logan the mean temp for July was 77.2, lets see where this month finishes but as of now a full degree ahead.

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My rib injury was much more of a factor than I anticipated. Driver and long irons caused pain uncoiling from the top of the swing. Consequently, I was pushing/blocking some shots. Short game is solid though. Copake Country Club, nice course. If you want to know what the temps in my backyard are likely to be use Box's forecast for Worthington. West Chesterfield's forecast is for the valley floor at 899'. 70's the next 3 days.

Either way a few gems coming for all of us before we ramp up it right back up towards August, just under 60 days of summer left, it goes by way too fast.

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Either way a few gems coming for all of us before we ramp up it right back up towards August, just under 60 days of summer left, it goes by way too fast.

The older you get the faster time goes. I ready for cold. I'm sick of the warmth. I really don't know how anyone could live in the south where the norm is 90+ and humid. Purgatory.

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That's sizzlicious, but last July "felt" warmer, despite this recent inferno. I think Scott mentioned sea breezes fir BOS last summer

68.9F here

I think the nw downsloping wind really heats the coastal plain up while leaving gods country hot but not sizzling, that area has been the one exception besides the islands and cape that has not had an all out torchathon.

The numbers dont lie, and neither does the electric bill.

But reality is, you are not supposed to torch like the rest of us, elevation has its advantages.

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