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Heat Wave Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Sun beginning to break out here. Hoping that the delayed start of warming might prevent an official heatwave. Today's the lowest forecasted temp of the last couple days--high of 91.3 on Thursday, 91.2 yesterday. Hopefully can go another year w/o a heatwave (though relatively speaking, it's certainly has risen to that level here).

69.4/66

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82.7/65 Skies have cleared out except for some high cirrus...

Much more humid than yesterday, but maybe that will dry out...

T-storm rolling through TAN right now. Meh temps. so far today. Low 80's. Nice to be able to get outside although the bugs are awful. I'll have to see what I can still do once these storms are finished.

SPECI KTAN 231558Z AUTO 28006KT 1 1/4SM +TSRA SCT033 OVC065 24/21 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 PRESRR P0010

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Today should be nothing like yesterday thanks to our near dawn little romp with MCS... Nice CG up here N of RT 2 btw -

Noting some explosive temperature recoveries where the sun comes out... Bed lurched 7F last hour. Shows the potential is still there as a the warm pattern is still here by a razor's edge. Tomorrow will be the really nice day this weekend.

I am toying with starting a new thread regarding the next plausible heat period. Toward D5 the current transient trough will be departing, but erstwhile subtropical/continental ridging has not yet been impeded. What that means is that when said trough lifts out, the intuitive solution is roll back the heights right back in here. Both deterministic Euro and GFS indicate this spanning several cycles. Teleconnectors still offer very little corrective value. The NAO is ...interestingly, progged to fall to perhaps as much as -.5SD. That's probably much more meaningful in December than it is during the shortest wavelength time of the year when correlations et al are heavily skewed over the intra-cold season model.

That said...2 questions: Does the lower troposphere time well with this next ridge flex; *Do we actually get into the ridge this time?

*By "in", I mean, this current heat was really dumb stupid luck... We are so close the westerlies core here that even the subtlest permutation could have 86'ed this whole thing. That said ...yesterday will be truly memorable for me. I was an awe...circa 3:45pm, when I stepped out of doors and it was eerily quite, like the heat has as much power to silence the typical daily maelstrom as much as a 20" snow bomb. And it does! The construction on-going about the campus of the office was completely suspended. People walk slowly to and fro their cars, obviously not wanting to elevate their metabolic temperatures for any reason in that torridity. 103, pedestrian to our visitor from Arizona - who ironically were here for the warmest since 1975. But they had to say - pardon the cliche - they were really taken off guard by the humidity.

I don't expect anything like that to repeat late next week; heck, history isn't usually highlighted that frequently. Just the same, it should be watched. We could more successfully find our selves up under the bigger heights aloft, but if we only have +18C -type critical depths to work with, the departures are kept more reasonable.

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Statement as of 2:29 PM EDT on July 23, 2011

... Record high temperature set at Kennedy NY...

a record high temperature of 102 degrees was set at Kennedy NY today.

This breaks the old record of 100 set in 1972.

102 today with no sunshine! Who knows how hot it would have been with a full sun!

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