BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I've followed these storms a long time and these storms that start off where this one is nEVER trend where we need them to. That's just how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HPC prefers the gfs and so does the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HPC prefers the gfs and so does the JMA however this is not what the GFS show anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HPC prefers the gfs and so does the JMA The JMA at 168 has a low in western Indiana. You have to remember the JMA is a 24 hour snapshot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 however this is not what the GFS show anymore I wouldnt get to hung up on one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I've followed these storms a long time and these storms that start off where this one is nEVER trend where we need them to. That's just how it is. Yep. Upper thirties here while Raleigh is pushing 60 on a strong S wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 In regards to next weekends storm, all our excitement over the past few model runs is based on a modeled northern stream piece of energy that is forecasted to dig down and phase causing a ECS cyclogenesis. The pattern screams for being ripe and thus you have mets like JB, who to his credit see the oppurtunity/potential that exist, beating the drum. In the same way, the models sense this as well and thus the past few runs you see them jumping this northern piece of energy in 6-7 days and offering full phased solutions. It is a crap shoot inside 48 hours for any model to be able to pickup on a northen piece of energy dropping down and causing a fully phased storm. let alone 7 days out. I will never forget Jan 2000. No model had a clue, even 24 hours out and lo & behold a little piece of energy dropped down into the SE and boom. I am on-board beleiving something big could be in the works over the next 10 days, but I would be shocked if the models actually handpicked out a piece of energy that doesn't even exist yet coming down a phasing a blockbuster ECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The JMA at 168 has a low in western Indiana. You have to remember the JMA is a 24 hour snapshot too. Just posting it for viewing pleasure, although it is simular to what the GFS showed for quite a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I wouldnt get to hung up on one run. well the apps runner and the inland runner were both one hit wonders as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Just posting it for viewing pleasure, although it is simular to what the GFS showed for quite a few runs. I understand, you just have to explain sometimes that it's a 24 snapshot, not what we're used to. You and I may know that but others may not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yep. Upper thirties here while Raleigh is pushing 60 on a strong S wind. 100:1 odds that me or you even see a flake from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 well the apps runner and the inland runner were both one hit wonders as well The gfs showed the semi inland coastal for at least three runs in a row, 18z, 0z, and 6z. The gfs still showing the coastal idea but this run was just further OTS. Didnt mean to cause such a stir posting the JMA lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 HPC prefers the gfs and so does the JMA Be careful posting that, model images from "pay" sites are prohibited here fyi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 would like to see that cold penetrate a bit more before cyclogenesis occurs if it indeed is a coastal storm... dont want to play the cold air chasing moisture game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 JB seems to think no matter what, something is coming to rail the SE/NE..."so get ready!" Per JB we'll be bulding many of these: We'll see though...this definitely has time to improve/worsen, but I can't wait to follow a big daddy this year as it seems we'll have at least once chance to cash in. What's your major at NCSU? I understand, you just have to explain sometimes that it's a 24 snapshot, not what we're used to. You and I may know that but others may not. I always used to get excited about the ridiculous QPF totals that the JMA put out, then I realized that they were 24-hour totals, not 6-hour totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 100:1 odds that me or you even see a flake from this. Little off topic, looks like the Volunteers and UNC in the Music City Bowl...Should be a nice match-up. I'm assuming that's your team after seeing your avatar. The Vols are mine. Anyway, I'll take odds that the upper deck in Nashville will be cold on December 30th. NC State to start the year next year...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Be careful posting that, model images from "pay" sites are prohibited here fyi... Its free you want a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Little off topic, looks like the Volunteers and UNC in the Music City Bowl...Should be a nice match-up. I'm assuming that's your team after seeing your avatar. The Vols are mine. Anyway, I'll take odds that the upper deck in Nashville will be cold on December 30th. NC State to start the year next year...I think. Yep, it should be a good matchup. Should be a huge HFA for Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What's your major at NCSU? I always used to get excited about the ridiculous QPF totals that the JMA put out, then I realized that they were 24-hour totals, not 6-hour totals. Biological Sciences...Senior, almost done. Can't say if I could go back I wouldn't do meteorology, but I enjoy this as a hobby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Already have it, thanks though, stormvista and accuweather maps will get deleted if the right person sees them, as I believe there are some copyright issues at hand, paid or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Already have it, thanks though, stormvista and accuweather maps will get deleted if the right person sees them, as I believe there are some copyright issues at hand, paid or not. Didnt know that. I guess I will refrain from posting them in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 If the euro has another inland track at 0z that would be the way I would have to go. In previous years once the euro locked in on an inland track and the gfs showed a coastal it was the gfs that ended up going to the euro solution in the end. Hopefully this being a different year it will be different but I would have to go w/ past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 If the euro has another inland runner at 0z that would be the way I would have to go. In previous years once the euro locked in on an inland track and the gfs showed a coastal it was the gfs that ended up going to the euro solution in the end. Hopefully this being a different year it will be different but I would have to go w/ past history. The GFS so far this year from what i have followed has been kicking the Euro and CMC's butt. start back in early Nov when both of those two models showed a major phased storm and the GFS said not so fast. Most of us said it was GFS bias and we were wrong. Same thing for the storm that is being suppressed early this week JMA, Euro and the CMC had a southern storm and lakes cutter. GFS said no sir! and it looks like it will come out on top. GFS is the model of choice when it comes to northern branch features. Southern Stream i would go with the Euro and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 If the euro has another inland track at 0z that would be the way I would have to go. In previous years once the euro locked in on an inland track and the gfs showed a coastal it was the gfs that ended up going to the euro solution in the end. Hopefully this being a different year it will be different but I would have to go w/ past history. the more important thing to look at is how the blocking is handled on both the 0z models and compare the euro and GFS.... if the block holds like the GFS shows on 18z then there is no way this comes inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Didnt know that. I guess I will refrain from posting them in the future. No big deal... Not sure how they are going about this issue here, but it was a no no on the old board RIP. I use Earl Barkers page for the JMA through 144, updates a little slow, but the graphics are better than SV imo. Don't put much faith though in the JMA at this range, as you can not determine ensemble support. Big 3, GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF, are much better tools at this range since you can compare the operational run to its ensemble mean, and look at the spread, or agreement in the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah I never put much faith in the JMA, just some nice eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yep, it should be a good matchup. Should be a huge HFA for Tennessee. Serves the Vols right(even though they are my team) for pulling out of that two game series w/ you all. Most folks up here weren't a big fan of the UT AD's decision to do that. This is our first time to that bowl BTW. As for the HFA, I think the lower deck and club boxes are already sold out. So, dat be true about the home field. And to all weather folks out there, that's my last OT post for the evening. I'll post some snow pics later of Roan Mountain in the thread for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 18z DGEX looks to be similar to GFS. Low does not tap the Gulf, ends up in a good spot off of Wilmington and misses the mid-atlantic. No big phase. Still looks to hold my interest for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the stj looks dead right now. la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Still looks to hold my interest for a few days. Mine too, this is a most intriuging scenario. I love the thrill of the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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