NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No dice south of I-40 or east of I-85. Thankfully I was on Long Island for this one . Got 4 1/2 w/ that one. Of course Im technically about 20 miles east of 85 and 20 or so south of 40 as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No one said this was going to be the Blizzard of '96, it's purely discussion. I mentioned it. Let's cut-out the use of the word "stupid" when speaking to educated people. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No one said this was going to be the Blizzard of '96, it's purely discussion. I mentioned it. Let's cut-out the use of the word "stupid" when speaking to educated people. What if it's Brick Tamland? Kidding of course. I'll go sit in timeout now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not trying to be harsh, I'm just saying. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I wouldnt call the 1950 storm a good analog as it was more of a inland Apps runner, while this storm is being modeled as a Noreaster/ Coastal storm Since you mention the App storm of 1950. Here is a good wrieup from the Jackson,KY weather Office regarding that storm. Yeah it was a App runner but, at one point did skip to the piedmont before backtracking into the eastern Ohio Valley. http://www.crh.noaa....achianstorm1950 Check out that snow totals map Cyclonic. the town I used to live in here in Lee County (Pennington gap) reported 17" from that one. The higher eles surrounding the town reported over 2 feet! I noticed the tri-cities didn't fair nearly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Cold and dry, lakes cutter, cold and dry. Excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 there are going to be atleast 15 more variations of this low over the coming days folks... im sure it will flip between lakes cutter to apps runner to inland runner to coastal bomb before pulling the wheel of fortune on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Since you mention the App storm of 1950. Here is a good wrieup from the Jackson,KY weather Office regarding that storm. Yeah it was a App runner but, at one point did skip to the piedmont before backtracking into the eastern Ohio Valley. http://www.crh.noaa....achianstorm1950 Check out that snow totals map Cyclonic. the town I used to live in here in Lee County (Pennington gap) reported 17" from that one. The higher eles surrounding the town reported over 2 feet! I noticed the tri-cities didn't fair nearly as well. Thanks and yeah that was a hell of a storm for my backyard also. On a side note here is the 12zgfs ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 One thing is for sure, you won't have to worry about the cold overwhelming the pattern with THIS storm. This one will be over/west of the Apps. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Cold and dry, lakes cutter, cold and dry. Excellent! Yeah, that would be typical Nina for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thanks and yeah that was a hell of a storm for my backyard also. On a side note here is the 12zgfs ensembles Thanks for posting, not one for the e-wall ens graphics, this is from Allan's model page... 174hrs 180hrs 192hrs Considerable spread, but a strong signal none the less for a storm in the period. They actually look in better agreement than the 0z members, and 192hrs is fairly good agreement at this stage, just the track to get there is what has sig spread. A couple of these showing a TN Valley track could translate into another high-shear low-instab severe weather event for portions of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thanks for posting, not one for the e-wall ens graphics, this is from Allan's model page... I would have posted Alans because I like his better also, but I cant seem to get a postable image of ALL of them. How did you? Screenshot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Thanks for posting, not one for the e-wall ens graphics, this is from Allan's model page... Considerable spread, but a strong signal none the less for a storm in the period. They actually look in better agreement than the 0z members, and 192hrs is fairly good agreement at this stage, just the track to get there is what has sig spread. A couple of these showing a TN Valley track could translate into another high-shear low-instab severe weather event for portions of the SE. Well if it does work out to be another HSLC event at least may help to re-establish a favorable height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would have posted Alans because I like his better also, but I cant seem to get a postable image of ALL of them. How did you? Screenshot? cmd - (to zoom out one) and cmd shift 4 (to screen capture), this is on a mac though. On my windows machine running safari, I zoom out once, using the zoom tool in safari, and use the clip tool to screen capture in vista. 12z Canadian ens similar to the GFS, strong signal for a storm in, or near the NE at 192hrs, just the track to get there is what does not show any meaningful agreement. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I am hearing the Euro ensembles are more like the GFS operational run, just not as far east. Probably still an inland track,, but nice to see something there to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 BIG STORM I don't know why they don't say the SE. That track that is in the blue would bring snowfall to the SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That would be a bad setup for a lot of folks on this board in the SE. I cannot find my bookmark, but Raleigh's research site shows a setup for heavy snow at RDU and HKY. The set up accusuck is showing would be rain for many. BIG STORM I don't know why they don't say the SE. That track that is in the blue would bring snowfall to the SE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know looking at the long range, after the storm of Dec.12-14, another even colder arctic blast is coming down. I'm sure we'll get a snowstorm before Christmas, we have the cold air, just need the right track and set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 BIG STORM I don't know why they don't say the SE. That track that is in the blue would bring snowfall to the SE as well. Accuwx is biased towards the Mid Atlantic and NE, and the blue track would only bring snowfall to the extreme northern fringes of the SE. Not to mention the fact that they hype everything up for attention, your best bet is to listen to some of the veterans on this board, and throw Accuwx in the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I am hearing the Euro ensembles are more like the GFS operational run, just not as far east. Probably still an inland track,, but nice to see something there to track. 12z ECMWF ens mean... Stronger signal than the 12z GFS ens mean, but not a SN-storm track for most folks outside of NE, still over a week out though, and things will change, but one would want an OTS track at this stage compared to the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Accuwx is biased towards the Mid Atlantic and NE, and the blue track would only bring snowfall to the extreme northern fringes of the SE. well, that is what I mean, portions of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z ECMWF ens mean... Stronger signal than the 12z GFS ens mean, but not a SN-storm track for most folks outside of NE, still over a week out though, and things will change, but one would want an OTS track at this stage compared to the TN Valley. Classic miller screw track there. Need a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Need a south trend. Agreed, there should be all kinds of trends to come though. We should have around 30 runs of gfs to go, and about 15 or so of the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Classic miller screw track there. Need a south trend. Models still differ on timing, track, and location of this low. Once this gets in the 120hr. view we would really be getting more details. I know for sure, there is something out there, that we are going to get slammed. With the cold air in place yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I know for sure, there is something out there, that we are going to get slammed. With the cold air in place yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 ha we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I've been listening to the birds and watching the way the trees grow. It's gonna snow, folks! The way the ants have been moving about also signals an upcoming storm in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 JB seems to think no matter what, something is coming to rail the SE/NE..."so get ready!" Per JB we'll be bulding many of these: We'll see though...this definitely has time to improve/worsen, but I can't wait to follow a big daddy this year as it seems we'll have at least once chance to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 New GFS says what system on the 12th and 13th unless you live in the Outerbanks of NC. 70 and sunny heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 eastern NC will laughingly like the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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