Itunis Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The ECM and GFS remind me of the Blizzard of 96, I know it's a long way out, but cant help but notice the simularities Which was during a La Nina Larry or someone else good with climo can correct me, but I think the ATL area got an inch or two from that storm. We have pictures of it since we had family come up from Florida, at the time we lived in Marietta and it looks like ~2" of snow was on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 For the folks in RDU the 1950 analog is not good for us. It would be great for the mountains though. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/TopRDUSnows.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I wouldnt call the 1950 storm a good analog as it was more of a inland Apps runner, while this storm is being modeled as a Noreaster/ Coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think you are right Itunis. I remember 2 or 3 inches at the house with flurries/snow showers for a couple of days. It was very cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GFS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GFS is not a good run for SE except maybe Tennessee. It would indicate mostly rain with maybe a change over to snow for some. But we know how that usually ends up. This is only one model run and I'm sure we're going to see a lot flip flopping for the next few days (until 5 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z GFS is not a good run for SE except maybe Tennessee. It would indicate mostly rain with maybe a change over to snow for some. But we know how that usually ends up. This is only one model run and I'm sure we're going to see a lot flip flopping for the next few days (until 5 days out). Exactly, The important thing is that it's still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The Dgex for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I wouldnt call the 1950 storm a good analog as it was more of a inland Apps runner, while this storm is being modeled as a Noreaster/ Coastal storm It is?, only the previous GooFuS is showing a major coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It is?, only the previous GooFuS is showing a major coastal. Most models are showing storm track east of the Apps where as the 1950 storm was west of the Apps. Most models are showing what I call a coastal or close to a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Most models are showing storm track east of the Apps where as the 1950 storm was west of the Apps. Most models are showing what I call a coastal or close to a coastal. 18z gfs from yesterday Todays 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That Euro is not a coastal and wouldnt do much good for the SE IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That Euro is not a coastal and wouldnt do much good for the SE IMO. Its closer to a coastal/Noreaster than it is to an apps runner IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That Euro is not a coastal and wouldnt do much good for the SE IMO. It depends where you live in the southeast. Living in the Mtns I would love an inland runner. Of course that would mean rain for a lot on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The euro isn't a coastal. At BEST it's a miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The euro isn't a coastal. At BEST it's a miller B It's a Miller B that turns into something simular to a Coastal or Noreaster. Lets just call it a Hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This has fail written all over it thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It's a Miller B that turns into something simular to a Coastal or Noreaster. Lets just call it a Hybrid That's kinda what a miller b is. Or as I call them miller screw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's kinda what a miller b is. Or as I call them miller screw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's kinda what a miller b is. Or as I call them miller screw. Miller b's tend to screw some people but they can be good for us here in TN. I already posted this earlier but will post again. I know this is the Hot Rod of Miller B's but this proves they can be good for Both NC and TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 During the winter of '95-'96, wasn't there a storm that went coast to coast - dumping a bunch of snow in NE TN? While looking for this I found a great article on the January Blizzard of '96. I also noticed an article called the July 1995 Heat Wave. I though that sounded pretty interesting after the summer we just had. Is their a correlation? I don't know yet. Seems like this Nina is stronger and not weakening yet. Anyway, I digress. What I'm looking for is synoptic overview for the big dump of snow in this area that happened. I think that is the storm that may resemble the set-up for the current storm we are discussing for late this week and early next. Is the Blizzard '96 link, that set-up? Here are the links to those articles.... Blizzard '96 Heat Wave '95 Edit: Cyclonic: Check out pg A-5 and A-6 of the Blizzard article. And folks, I know this is the Holy Grail of weather. I'm not saying this is going to happen. Could be just a lakes cutter...or never develop for this area at all - most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Miller b's tend to screw some people but they can be good for us here in TN. I already posted this earlier but will post again. I know this is the Hot Rod of Miller B's but this proves they can be good for Both NC and TN No dice south of I-40 or east of I-85. Thankfully I was on Long Island for this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12Z Euro and CMC say congrats to the Midwest, surface low in the OH Valley next weekend. rain/tstorms for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No dice south of I-40 or east of I-85. Thankfully I was on Long Island for this one . That was one of my most favorite winter storms (lived in Wake Forest at time). 14 hours of sleet!!! Ended up with over 5" on the ground. You could walk righ on top without going through. One week after the storm Capital Blvd going into Raleigh still only had one full lane open. **So this map is a little miss-leading, the lower snow areas had a lot of ice mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12Z Euro and CMC say congrats to the Midwest, surface low in the OH Valley next weekend. rain/tstorms for us. And I'd bet my last dollar that'll verify There is *no* comparison to the 96 blizzard people so it's stupid to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And I'd bet my last dollar that'll verify There is *no* comparison to the 96 blizzard people so it's stupid to talk about it. No one said this was going to be the Blizzard of '96, it's purely discussion. I mentioned it. Let's cut-out the use of the word "stupid" when speaking to educated people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 No one said this was going to be the Blizzard of '96, it's purely discussion. I mentioned it. Let's cut-out the use of the word "stupid" when speaking to educated people. Not trying to be harsh, I'm just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That was one of my most favorite winter storms (lived in Wake Forest at time). 14 hours of sleet!!! Ended up with over 5" on the ground. You could walk righ on top without going through. One week after the storm Capital Blvd going into Raleigh still only had one full lane open. **So this map is a little miss-leading, the lower snow areas had a lot of ice mixed in. Yeah, we complain about getting sleet instead of snow but several inches of sleet followed by normal cold will shutdown a southern city for days on end. There's a lot of frozen liquid in sleet compared to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This has fail written all over it thus far. I must unfortunately agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And I'd bet my last dollar that'll verify There is *no* comparison to the 96 blizzard people so it's stupid to talk about it. Its just as stupid to say that there is no comparison when just a model run earlier the 500 mb pattern was nearly a spot on match to the 96 storm. So lets not say one scenario is stupid just because of one model run. This storm has a thread for discussion and the 96 storm looked to be a good analog for some earlier model runs. So that was a valid discussion. This is still a ways out and could end up being a GLC or a Miller A, until then I like a strong Miller b and the 96 storm is fair game right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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