SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yikes! Look out! This could be a massive snow storm according to the 0z GFS run of 12/5/10. This storm is within 7 to 8 more days. So, its getting closer to the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yikes! Look out! This could be a massive snow storm according to the 0z GFS run of 12/5/10. This storm is within 7 to 8 more days. So, its getting closer to the short range. Where exactly in NE GA are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Where exactly in NE GA are you located? 30-35 miles NE of ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 30-35 miles NE of ATL Oh wow, you aren't too far from me. When I think of NE GA I think of Rabun county, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 30-35 miles NE of ATL Doesn't look like a great storm for the Western Part of NC. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Doesn't look like a great storm for the Western Part of NC. Guess we will see. what do you mean? Western NC will be north of the 0 line. (rain/snow indicator) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Doesn't look like a great storm for the Western Part of NC. Guess we will see. its nothing in the western parts compared to the widespread 18" amounts in central /coastal plain of NC, some sections of 24" if I read that right. But the track is pretty good to get a lot of folks in the game Tn , n Ala, n Ga , w SC most of NC and up the coast as a blizzard. But, its the GFS past 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 what do you mean? Western NC will be north of the 0 line. (rain/snow indicator) Lack of qpf(precip) is what he means. Notice how it dry slots NE Georgia, upstate SC, and western NC. However, there is plenty of time to watch it so of course the models will change for the better and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Doesn't look like a great storm for the Western Part of NC. Guess we will see. So for whom is it good, specifically from NC to VA to MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised at all to see tonights ECMWF come in similar. Its almost there to begin with. The models will change though the next few days regarding how the Fri-Sat zonal flow becomes amplified again. Hopefully us guys further west can get into something Wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Hey, at least this thread is better than the Dec. 18th thread that jumped the gun today... Can't wait to see what mid-December has in store for us, great first snow from this clipper this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEWinterWxF Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Hey, at least this thread is better than the Dec. 18th thread that jumped the gun today... Can't wait to see what mid-December has in store for us, great first snow from this clipper this weekend! yeah, lol... IDK why I was thinking jumping the gun?? JUMP! JUMP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 yeah, lol... IDK why I was thinking jumping the gun?? JUMP! JUMP! I was just indicating the lack of snow/ wintry precip. in the Western parts of NC. Hopefully that will change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yikes! Look out! This could be a massive snow storm according to the 0z GFS run of 12/5/10. This storm is within 7 to 8 more days. So, its getting closer to the short range. 0z GFS Ensemble member agrees. First image shows a similar output. The 0z Euro, however, has a 987mb low popped just to the north of NC with another massive cold air intrusion at hr. 192 as well. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf192.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It looks nice, but these northern stream impulses are exceptionally hard to predict how they can evolve in the longwave trough pattern. From the 500mb maps, I don't really see much of a strong 500mb low in the NE or Canada that can keep this system suppressed. Thus, I feel like the gfs jumping this system to the coast is not very likely and we will most likely be looking more as a miller B senerio. Not bad for folks up in the NE, but most of us in the Carolinas and Southeast in generally will be dealing with mainly rain. I'd love to be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks like a CAD set up on the 6Z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 That's the absolute perfect setup: LP south and se of the area, strengthening, with big HP near the Lakes. Perfect. HOWEVER, since it is so perfect now in the 7-8 day time frame, it will definitely change. Euro is much warmer for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 WRAL has highs in the mid 50s for here next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 WRAL has highs in the mid 50s for here next weekend. Actually I can see us getting highs in the lower 50s a couple of days before the storm; then a winter storm. The patteren will relax as the storm system dives south. The less bullish 6z GFS looks like a CAD setup (initially) and then a storm developing/jumping to the coast. But the 6z has a lot less precip (maybe .5 liquid). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 this mornings HPC long range prelim disco BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS WHILE DIGGING THIS SHORTWAVE AND CREATING A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORM ELIMINATE THE PHASING POTENTIAL OF ECMWF BUT STILL HAVE AN ANALOG CORRELATION TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED NOV 1950 EPISODE. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT STILL YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND ERN DEEPENING CYLOGENESIS IS THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THIS WAS USED AS BASE FOR HPC MORNING UPDATED PROGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 WRAL has highs in the mid 50s for here next weekend. Not a bad forecast considering the de-amplifying jet the end of this week. Those numbers are basically normal for this time of year so you shouldnt be arrowhead smiling. They are not putting in major snowstorm 7-9 days out now when there is no continuity between models. Enjoy the snow you just had and dont hold your hat on one model that says snow but then changes back to mild and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It looks nice, but these northern stream impulses are exceptionally hard to predict how they can evolve in the longwave trough pattern. From the 500mb maps, I don't really see much of a strong 500mb low in the NE or Canada that can keep this system suppressed. Thus, I feel like the gfs jumping this system to the coast is not very likely and we will most likely be looking more as a miller B senerio. Not bad for folks up in the NE, but most of us in the Carolinas and Southeast in generally will be dealing with mainly rain. I'd love to be wrong though. excellent post about how difficult its going to be to get the amplification right. The models could be off quite a bit as to where it happens. this mornings HPC long range prelim disco BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS WHILE DIGGING THIS SHORTWAVE AND CREATING A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORM ELIMINATE THE PHASING POTENTIAL OF ECMWF BUT STILL HAVE AN ANALOG CORRELATION TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED NOV 1950 EPISODE. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT STILL YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND ERN DEEPENING CYLOGENESIS IS THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THIS WAS USED AS BASE FOR HPC MORNING UPDATED PROGS. Its probably a very good pattern for eastern NC with the NAO where it is and the 50/50, which is stilla tough call 7 to 9 days out but if it sharpens over eastern GA to eastern Carolinas, you'd be in for a snowstorm for the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Robert, the euro has been too phase happy of late and I'm not buying it. I would really like to see the energy dig south a little more farther west before I get excited. It does look like a good setup for ne NC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 excellent post about how difficult its going to be to get the amplification right. The models could be off quite a bit as to where it happens. Its probably a very good pattern for eastern NC with the NAO where it is and the 50/50, which is stilla tough call 7 to 9 days out but if it sharpens over eastern GA to eastern Carolinas, you'd be in for a snowstorm for the books. I'll take a snowstorm for the books but to be honest i was very impressed with yesterdays clipper. The snowfall here at times was ridiculous. Downeastnc was deer hunting and had a pic of the snow with the ground bare and just 7 minutes later (I think it was 7 not sure) the ground was white. All we can do is hope for the best but this winter has already produced an accumulating snowfall for me. Also I am stuck behind firewalls here at work and have trouble getting on certain sites but does anyone have a snowfall history for the Nov 25-26th storm they refer too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wouldn't shock me for the euro to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not a bad forecast considering the de-amplifying jet the end of this week. Those numbers are basically normal for this time of year so you shouldnt be arrowhead smiling. They are not putting in major snowstorm 7-9 days out now when there is no continuity between models. Enjoy the snow you just had and dont hold your hat on one model that says snow but then changes back to mild and rain. Often that far out most will stick to climo. In my view there is no point in a 7 or 10 day forecast being issued but I guess the public wants to see it. Overall at that range the pattern is the key to watch rather than individual storms models are spitting out. If the setup is there so is the potential for something good to materialize even if it doesn't match up exactly with today's 300 hour GFS forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The ECM and GFS remind me of the Blizzard of 96, I know it's a long way out, but cant help but notice the simularities Which was during a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The HPC was mentioning the 1950 APP storm which bombed out in central Ohio. Behind it sent temps below zero into part of the Southeast,in November which was unheard of. It was a special setup with strong blocking and hi amp. flow. Just for kicks, nobody is saying this is happening again, just that HPC mentioned some analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Hey foothills, is there any snowfall maps for that event? Did it produce snow in NC or just the bitterly cold air? Overall I am going to remain optimistic but I know the chances of a 7-9 day model being right is really really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The HPC was mentioning the 1950 APP storm which bombed out in central Ohio. Behind it sent temps below zero into part of the Southeast,in November which was unheard of. It was a special setup with strong blocking and hi amp. flow. Just for kicks, nobody is saying this is happening again, just that HPC mentioned some analogs. Robert - You're starting to get my attention. I'll definately be paying attention this week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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