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Heavy Rain Threat 7/21-7/24


A-L-E-K

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Maybe it was different by you but I doubt it.. 2 hrs of very light rain does not make .50" Very light rain keeps hanging on for dear life here the last 40 mins.

Through most of the 2 hr duration it was a moderate rain. We're probably splitting hairs anyway. Sounds like it's somewhere b/w a quarter inch and a half inch.

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Through most of the 2 hr duration it was a moderate rain. We're probably splitting hairs anyway. Sounds like it's somewhere b/w a quarter inch and a half inch.

radar was showing moderate at times but no way it was representative of what was falling here or we would have done better and been around .50 give or take. This rain here you wouldn't have needed an umbrella for or needed to walk fast or run from your car to get in to a store. Basically it was a useless rain but at least the birds got a bath and drink.

Anyways, Michigan's time for a good soaking.

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.22" at the airport through 9:52.. Maybe added enough during that last hr where the very light rain was hanging on in the southern half of the county to get to .30"

The radar estimated amounts were pretty spot on then. Anyways models keep the front active in the area through the weekend, you all should have a few more chances for something more significant.

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The radar estimated amounts were pretty spot on then. Anyways models keep the front active in the area through the weekend, you all should have a few more chances for something more significant.

Even racine only .21" Dam Kenosha hogged it all.. 1.37 through 9:53

Yup should be an interesting weekend for a lot of us and hopefully next week brings some chances too. I think most of us here have gotten tracking heatwaves out of our system for the summer. I admit it was pretty fun and it kept things chugging along in the weather department as we head for the dog days of summer.

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Even racine only .21" Dam Kenosha hogged it all.. 1.37 through 9:53

Yup should be an interesting weekend for a lot of us and hopefully next week brings some chances too. I think most of us here have gotten tracking heatwaves out of our system for the summer. I admit it was pretty fun and it kept things chugging along in the weather department as we head for the dog days of summer.

Now tomorrow looks semi-interesting, especially where I might be in Madison. I'll probably be leaving by the time any potential severe moves in, though. Sunday the stormy threat may be too far east, but we'll see. I hope one of these days we see some convective initiation in SE or SC Wisconsin. It seems we always have to wait on an MCS that develops in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, or the Dakotas to plow on through. Hopefully nothing too ugly, but some nice storms regardless.

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Now tomorrow looks semi-interesting, especially where I might be in Madison. I'll probably be leaving by the time any potential severe moves in, though. Sunday the stormy threat may be too far east, but we'll see. I hope one of these days we see some convective initiation in SE or SC Wisconsin. It seems we always have to wait on an MCS that develops in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, or the Dakotas to plow on through. Hopefully nothing too ugly, but some nice storms regardless.

Yeah looks good on the euro tomorrow in between madison and $ man. Good Luck out there! Looks like we're in a decent spot for round 3 on the euro too for rains.

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Yeah looks good on the euro tomorrow in between madison and $ man. Good Luck out there! Looks like we're in a decent spot for round 3 on the euro too for rains.

Thank you! I wish I got the Euro. You have to pay for it, right? GFS I like for tracking precip, but it seems as if the NAM always throws us a :weenie: before correcting to reality, so that is a tad annoying.

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Thank you! I wish I got the Euro. You have to pay for it, right? GFS I like for tracking precip, but it seems as if the NAM always throws us a :weenie: before correcting to reality, so that is a tad annoying.

Yeah.. 30 a month for a package of stuff and euro. I always mean to cancel it after winter but I don't trust the GFS or NAM enough so its nice to get what the euro is smoking too.

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BETWEEN 947AM AND 955AM THIS MORNING...EXTREME RAINFALL RATES

OCCURRED AT CHICAGO-OHARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINE OF STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. 0.55 INCHES OF RAIN FELL

BETWEEN 947AM AND 955 AM...

FWIW feeling pretty confident in another round late tonight, won't be surprised if LOT bumps pops soon.

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FWIW feeling pretty confident in another round late tonight, won't be surprised if LOT bumps pops soon.

[/quote

As the warm front slowly drifts northward, the axis of heavy rain will do likewise. Based on the Euro putting this axis slightly northward, hopefully Racine and Milwaukee can get in on the action a bit more overnight.

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As the warm front slowly drifts northward, the axis of heavy rain will do likewise. Based on the Euro putting this axis slightly northward, hopefully Racine and Milwaukee can get in on the action a bit more overnight.

the front is a little washed out right now, my thinking is we see another complex get going over south central iowa and track NE-ENE and eventually E over more or less the same areas that got hit this morning.

EDIT: LOT agrees

WITH TIME

TONIGHT GOOD MOIST ADVECTION WITHIN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME

SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS. IT APPEARS

THAT THIS MCS COULD HIT THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNINGS MCS.

ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE HAS CHANGED

LITTLE...IT CAN BE EXPECTED THAT THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT

RAINMAKERS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS

THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE

WITH THESE STORMS.

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I think Alek has another good read on this..

It looks like what's going on is an area of showers and embedded lightning is moving into SW Wisconsin, with the strongest storms moving southeast toward the Quad Cities. I think we get some rain (a similar event to this morning) but nothing heavy duty. Stay tuned tomorrow, b/c the RUC has some interesting things going on.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHERN PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT SATURDAY

* AT 1020 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STREET

FLOODING IN THE CITY OF DE MOTTE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS

FAR NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AN

ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

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I think Alek has another good read on this and we'll have to wait on whats happening back to the NW? Anywhoo.. Harry Potter time with the wife :arrowhead: Be the 1st and last potter move i'll see.

Emma Watson and Katie Leung are incredibly hot...enjoy.

On topic...storms are backbuilding in Iowa. So it looks like this could be another training event.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

SOUTHERN PORTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT SATURDAY

* AT 1020 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED STREET

FLOODING IN THE CITY OF DE MOTTE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS

FAR NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AN

ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

Radar estimating a small area of 4-5" with that cell now...

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With the way the towering storms are lining up now I can definitely see some hydro issues for the northern burbs..

Edit: LOT just issued a Flash Flood warning for the northern burbs..

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT*

AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WINNEBAGO AND OGLE COUNTIES. THIS LINE WAS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME AREAS IN THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING.* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 AND INTERSTATE 290.

"Drought" might just be erradicated in a matter of days here with the recent rains..

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Emma Watson and Katie Leung are incredibly hot...enjoy.

On topic...storms are backbuilding in Iowa. So it looks like this could be another training event.

Tickets were all sold out - me ftw until tomorrow at 1

yeah just looked at radar and that's looking nice south of here.. Euro blew chunks with this.. 12z had nothing really for anybody tonight 0z has us getting up to .50 and actually a little more north.. don't see that happening..12z euro has a complex moving out of MN and hitting here from 12z through 00z... don't see that happening.

Awesome job again, alek :thumbsup:

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With the way the towering storms are lining up now I can definitely see some hydro issues for the northern burbs..

Edit: LOT just issued a Flash Flood warning for the northern burbs..

* UNTIL 630 AM CDT*

AT 1235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MCHENRY...SOUTHERN LAKE...AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION... A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS WINNEBAGO AND OGLE COUNTIES. THIS LINE WAS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SOME AREAS IN THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING.* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR ACROSS MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 AND INTERSTATE 290.

"Drought" might just be erradicated in a matter of days here with the recent rains..

Not saying there will be a repeat but radar right now is a little reminiscent of that event last year that dumped like 9" at Midway.

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Not saying there will be a repeat but radar right now is a little reminiscent of that event last year that dumped like 9" at Midway.

Radar estimates are showing around 4" near Fox River Grove thus far...not counting what fell late last night and this morning.

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Absolutely incredible rainfall and non-severe storm action right now and really for at least the last hour. Within the embedded non-severe warned bow that just passed over, we had extremely heavy rates, with the rain driving down onto the skylights. I was asleep but it became next to impossible. Near constant lightning and thunder continues with some small hail audible from time to time.

This reminds me of a particular night in August 2007, which featured a potential sump pump issue and a futile trip to Walmart at 3 a.m. when streets were inundated.

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