Ed Lizard Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Quantity over quality, but it is July. 'Gert', now, that is an old fashioned mega sounding hurricane. Irene could be tough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 My analysis Nothing, go back to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Cindy looks like a subtropical system on water vapor... would like to see the thermal profile of Cindy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Cindy looks like a subtropical system on water vapor... would like to see the thermal profile of Cindy. Shockingly warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 wow, that's awesome. do you have a theta-e plot also?? where'd you find this? Shockingly warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 wow, that's awesome. do you have a theta-e plot also?? where'd you find this? http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/index.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Up to 45kt, NWS has the storm peaking at 50kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 45kt from ASCAT in a rain free portion, 1004mb pressure from a 1007.3mb report by a bouy north of the center, so numbers have a bit more backing now. This is with the discussion noting that the structure has not changed much since the first advisory. Would not be surprised if the post season analysis brings the initial development time back 12 or 18 hours with how the satellite had looked during the day before declaring, and more importantly these observations giving credit that the storm likely had been a tropical storm for some time before being declared as one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Looking surprisingly nice tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Well it looks as though Cindy is wrapping up an eye, could it become a hurricane? If so...that would mean that models didn't pick up on either Tropical Storm Bret, or even a potential Atlantic hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 A disgrace to tropical cyclones everywhere. Not even worth the kilobytes used to discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Looks like eye like feature go bye bye. It's starting et transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 A disgrace to tropical cyclones everywhere. Not even worth the kilobytes used to discuss it. Don't you have a fish storm in the East Pac to discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 A disgrace to tropical cyclones everywhere. Not even worth the kilobytes used to discuss it. Meh...a 40 mph GOM slopical storm that can't get organized due to shear/dry air on western flank is more disgraceful. This is a classic "bar pick up" storm -- looked great at night while drunk...you wake up the next morning and realize the true "beauty" beside you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Don't you have a fish storm in the East Pac to discuss? Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Well it looks as though Cindy is wrapping up an eye, could it become a hurricane? If so...that would mean that models didn't pick up on either Tropical Storm Bret, or even a potential Atlantic hurricane. I wouldn't say that. Several models had some sort of tropical development off the SE coast in the time period that Bret did indeed develop, and this was 5-7 days before it developed. I certainly wasn't surprised by Bret's formation, nor that it would remain a TS and not go hurricane on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I wouldn't say that. Several models had some sort of tropical development off the SE coast in the time period that Bret did indeed develop, and this was 5-7 days before it developed. I certainly wasn't surprised by Bret's formation, nor that it would remain a TS and not go hurricane on us. Agree. Both Bret and Cindy were in the models well before their development. There was obviously some question on whether they were truly warm core or baroclinic structures in the models, but the deepening surface lows were definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Agree. Both Bret and Cindy were in the models well before their development. There was obviously some question on whether they were truly warm core or baroclinic structures in the models, but the deepening surface lows were definitely there. Thanks. I was traveling when Cindy was "seen" on models, so I wasn't aware either way. At one point, the feature that led to Bret was forcasted to back in west to SC or GA, which is why I remember it. Eventually, Bret formed later and further south, and got picked up by the westerlies. Could have used the rain myself, especially since I wasn't going to be there to be inconvenienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Don't you have a fish storm in the East Pac to discuss? Second time this year NHC has used the "A" word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Agree. Both Bret and Cindy were in the models well before their development. There was obviously some question on whether they were truly warm core or baroclinic structures in the models, but the deepening surface lows were definitely there. I should add that I've noticed the models picking up potential tropical development and general location much better in the 7-10 day range than they did just a couple years ago. I recall reading models back then with generous portions of salt with them. Now when I see the GFS or Euro touting a possible development, I take some notice. The models have come a long way tropically in all areas; genesis, track, and somewhat on intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I should add that I've noticed the models picking up potential tropical development and general location much better in the 7-10 day range than they did just a couple years ago. I recall reading models back then with generous portions of salt with them. Now when I see the GFS or Euro touting a possible development, I take some notice. The models have come a long way tropically in all areas; genesis, track, and somewhat on intensity. Yep, absolutely. The GFS and Euro are definitely skillful out to 10 days now with TCG forecasts. Even two years ago, they were mostly worthless. The last two upgrades of both models were major improvements in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 IMHO, and I didn't keep records or anything, the models did a better job suggesting Bret from a few days out than they did up close. The 0Z run of the Canadian missed Bret completely the day it was classified. The Canadian, I remember, because it is the Joe Bastardi of the globals, a lot of false alarms but rarely, if ever, misses a cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Yep, absolutely. The GFS and Euro are definitely skillful out to 10 days now with TCG forecasts. Even two years ago, they were mostly worthless. The last two upgrades of both models were major improvements in the tropics. It is odd for me to use GFS in the same sentence as the Euro when talking about quality, but the GFS has earned it, especially in the tropics. If I recall, the GFS sniffed out the first two storms before the Euro did. The upgrades did wonders for the GFS, and I consider it a go to model for TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 IMHO, and I didn't keep records or anything, the models did a better job suggesting Bret from a few days out than they did up close. The 0Z run of the Canadian missed Bret completely the day it was classified. The Canadian, I remember, because it is the Joe Bastardi of the globals, a lot of false alarms but rarely, if ever, misses a cyclone. Yeah, they weren't very good in the two days before, but both the GFS and Euro nailed it in the MR It is odd for me to use GFS in the same sentence as the Euro when talking about quality, but the GFS has earned it, especially in the tropics. If I recall, the GFS sniffed out the first two storms before the Euro did. The upgrades did wonders for the GFS, and I consider it a go to model for TCG. Last summer's upgrade to the GFS made it 1a. in the tropics. I don't use any other models than the GFS and the Euro. Those two models seem to go back and forth for which one is better at sniffing out storms in the MR, but they have both improved leaps and bounds in the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 IMHO, and I didn't keep records or anything, the models did a better job suggesting Bret from a few days out than they did up close. The 0Z run of the Canadian missed Bret completely the day it was classified. The Canadian, I remember, because it is the Joe Bastardi of the globals, a lot of false alarms but rarely, if ever, misses a cyclone. Agree. The models started backing off on development per se as time got closer, but never gave up on the possibility entirely. My recollection is that they sniffed out TCG at 10 days off Savannah, then decided medium range (5 days) that that was not going to fly and sorta/kinda lost it, and then picked it up again near the Bahamas in the shorter range. I wonder if the trough coming through that area threw the models off and they couldn't see through that fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Not bad for a tropical cyclone that is above 40N in late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Not bad for a tropical cyclone that is above 40N in late July. If there were recon in the flight, I would think they just might find minimal hurricane winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 um lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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