Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks like its going to hold and show a storm. Probably nothing like the perfect once in a life time HECS the 18z had but I think we have something to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looks like its going to hold and show a storm. Probably nothing like the perfect once in a life time HECS the 18z had but I think we have something to track you should have been around here last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 storm holds...a potential HECS in our future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I'm seeing 2 persistent issues this year, the pesky Low over the Great Lakes and decent storms end up being too far east La Nina continues to be a biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 this is beautiful http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_204.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I guess its a positive that it held it for two runs in a row. Seems like we've got potential, and no lake cutter (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 this is beautiful http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_204.shtml and I thought you were posting a picture of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 and I thought you were posting a picture of me ive never seen a pic of you but Im guessing thats a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Its interesting that it holds it over from 18z, but beyond that...meh. Remember the GFS has had at 180+ hour HECS for every run. THe problem is, it doesn't move from that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Its interesting that it holds it over from 18z, but beyond that...meh. Remember the GFS has had at 180+ hour HECS for every run. THe problem is, it doesn't move from that time frame. before the 18z GFS run, the GFS the past 3 days was showing cold and dry though 384(hence my complaint thread)..but for the first time this season---its showing some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Its interesting that it holds it over from 18z, but beyond that...meh. Remember the GFS has had at 180+ hour HECS for every run. THe problem is, it doesn't move from that time frame. the problem is, its a Miller B with redevelopment off the SC/NC coast how often has that happened in a Nina? please, don't answer that <Wes> ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 the problem is, its a Miller B with redevelopment off the SC/NC coast how often has that happened in a Nina? please, don't answer that <Wes> ! how often do we get 3 HECS in 62 days. I think Weather as we have known it has changed. Expect the unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 the problem is, its a Miller B with redevelopment off the SC/NC coast how often has that happened in a Nina? please, don't answer that <Wes> ! Sorry I'm not Wes. There is no problem, the GFS is right where we want it at the surface 8 days out. And 700mb would argue for a more westward surface track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Has to be good news that there were a couple of 'no way this will show at 0z' at 18z, and it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Again showing 582DM over Greenland. Some serious global warming, or the GFS should not be run after 192!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Again showing 582DM over Greenland. Some serious global warming, or the GFS should not be run after 192!!! that block does not move through 384 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sorry I'm not Wes. There is no problem, the GFS is right where we want it at the surface 8 days out. And 700mb would argue for a more westward surface track.. I guess my point was simply that Miller B's w/redevelopment off the SC/NC coast in a mod/strong NINA that hit us are really rare can anyone remember one? I don't, but I don't claim my memory to be perfect it ain't like I don't want it to happen, it just looks a bit suspicious (but then anything in this time frame this year has to be looked at skeptically with model performance pretty abysmal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I guess my point was simply that Miller B's w/redevelopment off the SC/NC coast in a mod/strong NINA that hit us are really rare can anyone remember one? I don't, but I don't claim my memory to be perfect it ain't like I don't want it to happen, it just looks a bit suspicious (but then anything in this time frame this year has to be looked at skeptically with model performance pretty abysmal) Nina is either super supressed or super phased. 2000 was a Nina I think, here's a supressed track http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2000/us1203.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I almost prefer the look at the end of the run vs. the system at 200 hrs (taking the model run verbatim, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 GGEM shows a major storm at 192 per the Philly Board(SARCUS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 For the weekend event, that is the one spot in Canada for the PV to take up home and actually help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Interesting solution.... don't really buy into it though. The change from before and after truncation is a bit gawking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Something to keep an eye on. The setup looks nice but 9 days is a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The GFS, GGEM, and Euro all show a storm for the east coast in the 8-9 day range. The Euro is the warmest (mostly rain for the immediate east coast), the GGEM is in the middle, and the GFS is the coldest of the solutions. In these situations, I've found that if the Euro is warmer than other models and stays consistent for 2-3 runs it usually leads the way and other models cave in. I'm really hoping to see a colder solution from the Euro at 12Z today or by 00Z tomorrow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 gfs does look nice but euro mlooks warm and farther inland, so now comes the fun part of which to trust, but 7 days out so, models will go back and forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 that block does not move through 384 lol That's nice, if it turns out to be true! Multiply that by 10, and we'll be really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Again showing 582DM over Greenland. Some serious global warming, or the GFS should not be run after 192!!! Better there than just off the East Coast, of course! One of the most depressing things I saw a few years back was a closed 594 dm contour at 500 mb somewhere out over the Atlantic off the coast, during early January (think it was Jan 2007, but not sure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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