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Trough returns next week

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Nice northern wx :) Sweatshirts and windbreaker stuff in the mountains. Good hiking wx on the dry days.

e name='CT Blizz' timestamp='1312631469' post='863308']

Ok thanks dude. I think we'll get wet from time time..but not what I would call a rainy week. Hopefully not enough to dampen outdoor stuff. We're about to leave...I'll be logging on each morning

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Meh, looking over what data NCEP is capable of disseminating this morning (is there some kind of massive outage at NCEP?) suggests that we are engineering this cool vibe on our own...spontaneously emerging an impression of what is really only questionably in existence.

I've noticed this over the years - there is science, then there's the science-chit-chat paradigm; the latter sometimes reflects the former ;)

Although, the 12s GFSX MOS yesterday had a couple days mid week where the high at BED-FIT-HFD were in that 74-79 range (not really even jacket weather imo) the 00z last night goosed those temperatures by 7F and now over 80. As far as the mountain, well ...duh. But you can have jacket weather half way up Mt Washington in July! Mountain or even high hill meteorology is seldom applicable even to the Worcester Hills. People just don't like this season, and don't like it so desperately that they like to spin it as something other than the dreaded reality that it is far and away not the cold season. Like the great Nelson Munts once said: "I prefer delusion over despair".

One thing I'd caution in this over labored, too long of a thread of questionably inaccurate application of certain science, the -NAO is alleviated pretty rapidly this week; the NAO is the primary proxy on our biases during August. Not the PNA or those features involved in it. In fact, it starts out around -2.5SD, an impressive negative deviation at any time of year, and recovers almost to neutral in less than a week at CPC. CDC shows the recovery but it was never as impressively deep, so its recovery is more moderate. Either way, the blend is a huge quantity of suggestive change in the orientation of the mass-fields. The pattern could abruptly break warm given that (and I noticed not much recognition that way, go wonder...) and perhaps not really be modeled too well - when is a pattern change ever modeled well?

Also, 3 or 4 days ago a transient "trough" passed through the NE CONUS and Boston still managed a low impact heat wave, officially - be leery of patterns that "look" cool in the models in August. I like the 582dm contour; I'm noticing that it is never far from our doorstep despite the curvi-linear status of the heights overall. That's a very tall troposphere in the means, and one supportive of above average thickness in the means. That canvas hurts any cool appeal - we'll see.

The devil's in the details. For example, the rain tomorrow is convectively contaminated, meaning ... the models may not handle bull's eyes and areal coverages too accurately having feedback issues . The 12z - 00z - to 06z NAM runs nicely demonstrate that instability in vision. It is possible the whole scenario is over developed. Wouldn't be shocked if a lot of the rains end up NW of SNE ...clipping primarily NW zones. One thing, I don't see a huge mechanic for even having it other than latching onto some quasi western PA MCS activity and entangling it in an IB along a diffused warm front. If that happens it will be nice because a lot of the area needs rain. In fact I just looked at the last 4 cycles of FRH output for BOS and the QPF is not that impressive.

That's regional though. The local storms could be prolific no doubt!

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Meh, looking over what data NCEP is capable of disseminating this morning (is there some kind of massive outage at NCEP?) suggests that we are engineering this cool vibe on our own...spontaneously emerging an impression of what is really only questionably in existence.

I've noticed this over the years - there is science, then there's the science-chit-chat paradigm; the latter sometimes reflects the former ;)

Although, the 12s GFSX MOS yesterday had a couple days mid week where the high at BED-FIT-HFD were in that 74-79 range (not really even jacket weather imo) the 00z last night goosed those temperatures by 7F and now over 80. As far as the mountain, well ...duh. But you can have jacket weather half way up Mt Washington in July! Mountain or even high hill meteorology is seldom applicable even to the Worcester Hills. People just don't like this season, and don't like it so desperately that they like to spin it as something other than the dreaded reality that it is far and away not the cold season. Like the great Nelson Munts once said: "I prefer delusion over despair".

One thing I'd caution in this over labored, too long of a thread of questionably inaccurate application of certain science, the -NAO is alleviated pretty rapidly this week; the NAO is the primary proxy on our biases during August. Not the PNA or those features involved in it. In fact, it starts out around -2.5SD, an impressive negative deviation at any time of year, and recovers almost to neutral in less than a week at CPC. CDC shows the recovery but it was never as impressively deep, so its recovery is more moderate. Either way, the blend is a huge quantity of suggestive change in the orientation of the mass-fields. The pattern could abruptly break warm given that (and I noticed not much recognition that way, go wonder...) and perhaps not really be modeled too well - when is a pattern change ever modeled well?

Also, 3 or 4 days ago a transient "trough" passed through the NE CONUS and Boston still managed a low impact heat wave, officially - be leery of patterns that "look" cool in the models in August. I like the 582dm contour; I'm noticing that it is never far from our doorstep despite the curvi-linear status of the heights overall. That's a very tall troposphere in the means, and one supportive of above average thickness in the means. That canvas hurts any cool appeal - we'll see.

The devil's in the details. For example, the rain tomorrow is convectively contaminated, meaning ... the models may not handle bull's eyes and areal coverages too accurately having feedback issues . The 12z - 00z - to 06z NAM runs nicely demonstrate that instability in vision. It is possible the whole scenario is over developed. Wouldn't be shocked if a lot of the rains end up NW of SNE ...clipping primarily NW zones. One thing, I don't see a huge mechanic for even having it other than latching onto some quasi western PA MCS activity and entangling it in an IB along a diffused warm front. If that happens it will be nice because a lot of the area needs rain. In fact I just looked at the last 4 cycles of FRH output for BOS and the QPF is not that impressive.

That's regional though. The local storms could be prolific no doubt!

Your sarcasm detector continues to be in disrepair

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Kevin likes warmth, so do I. Kevin should plan his vacations like mine. I'm heading for a family reuninon on a resort in SW MI along the lake. Driving heading out 8/17. Heading ito the building ridge out there. I suspect it gets pretty warm here 8/20 and beyond...maybe 8/15. Meanwhile BOS will be above today....84/69 at 11AM. Heading to the game later...luxury box. Nice win last night.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Kevin likes warmth, so do I. Kevin should plan his vacations like mine. I'm heading for a family reuninon on a resort in SW MI along the lake. Driving heading out 8/17. Heading ito the building ridge out there. I suspect it gets pretty warm here 8/20 and beyond...maybe 8/15. Meanwhile BOS will be above today....84/69 at 11AM. Heading to the game later...luxury box. Nice win last night.

Yeah tend to agree there jerry re later in the month

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Lol...I know you weren't being sarcastic...

Wow, there really is some kind of massive outage at NCEP... Internal office radars... down. NCEP Models...down. Sat channels. down.

Look at Florida... clearly at ancillary sat sites there is something regenerating just E of MIA ...well, strongly suggested anyway. no information. TPC, totally down.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Wow, there really is some kind of massive outage at NCEP... Internal office radars... down. NCEP Models...down. Sat channels. down.

Look at Florida... clearly at ancillary sat sites there is something regenerating just E of MIA ...well, strongly suggested anyway. no information. TPC, totally down.

I don't know why but they've been having periodic server issues for weeks now with multiple products effected. Seems to also ahppen during the day. Might be an infrastructure issue.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I don't know why but they've been having periodic server issues for weeks now with multiple products effected. Seems to also ahppen during the day. Might be an infrastructure issue.

All the data is coming in here ok, although we have multiple and redundant feeds. I know earlier last week, the 12z GFS was pretty darn late with its dissemination.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Tippy...how is it after all these yrs on these boards with the same posters you can't detect our humor? :lol:

There is actually a social aspect to the board. Not every post has to be robotic. We were just joking with kevin. As you said "duh"

That particular poster seems to struggle with comedic interpetation.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

All the data is coming in here ok, although we have multiple and redundant feeds. I know earlier last week, the 12z GFS was pretty darn late with its dissemination.

Go to any NWS site and try the radar. Go to NCEP Models... no servers can be reached. at least not from here

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Outdoor event in Manchester,NH tonight FTL

Meanwhile, its pretty hot for a fall day out there. 83/68 is well above normal for midday. tongue.gif

What event?

Looking at the radar, it looks like there's several isolated downpours affecting NH and VT right now

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