Trough returns next week

[Damage In Tolland]

Well Euro ensembles don't really have any big heat signal. Sure maybe some warm humid days, but they look "troughy" over the northeast during the 11-15 day.

What do you think for next week up in NH?

Looks to me like a couple sticky days..storms..then a sunny dry day or 2..then repeat...

[ski MRG]

Well Euro ensembles don't really have any big heat signal. Sure maybe some warm humid days, but they look "troughy" over the northeast during the 11-15 day.

Euro garbage, Blizz and LL have all but guaranteed a blistering August. There is no way in hell I'd put my money on the best computer model when they're calling for heat.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro garbage, Blizz and LL have all but guaranteed a blistering August. There is no way in hell I'd put my money on the best computer model when they're calling for heat.

Find me the post where I have called for a hot, torch August

[CoastalWx]

What do you think for next week up in NH?

Looks to me like a couple sticky days..storms..then a sunny dry day or 2..then repeat...

Sunday could be warm, then fropa and possibly cooler wx. It looks like somr boundary might be nearby so perhaps periodic storminess, but it looks like wx will be decent. I could see some mild days and cool nights, but again..this is far out so it could change.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunday could be warm, then fropa and possibly cooler wx. It looks like somr boundary might be nearby so perhaps periodic storminess, but it looks like wx will be decent. I could see some mild days and cool nights, but again..this is far out so it could change.

Careful..be cautious

[weathafella]

Can't live in a nice cozy box your whole life either. Risk/reward. I would never have seen the awesome things I've seen without taking some risks. Children do change the equation. I catch some flack for my AK adventures but that's why I pay for a big life insurance policy.lol

I dunno....avoiding a trip to the roof of a very tall row house doesn't seem to leave much out. I'm older now. Risk taking is taker...and odds are longer with a 12 yo at home. My biggest risks now are tame be when I was your age and nearly slipped of a glacier at 14k ft.

[CoastalWx]

Careful..be cautious

Hey man...don't want to screw up the wx for you..lol.

[ski MRG]

I dunno....avoiding a trip to the roof of a very tall row house doesn't seem to leave much out. I'm older now. Risk taking is taker...and odds are longer with a 12 yo at home. My biggest risks now are tame be when I was your age and nearly slipped of a glacier at 14k ft.

Felt alive though didn't ya.lol The stuff I do daily seems mundane but complacency can get you killed. I had my first real fall in a long time at work just over two weeks ago. I landed hard on a roof rafter with my chest/ribs just below my heart. It broke my fall but probably broke a rib or two. It's been an exceedingly painful injury and is only now improving. Since having a child almost 6 years ago I've had to radically curtail my thrill seeking but the one thing I will never be able to voluntarily give up is skiing. I hear the siren call of AK everyday. What glacier?

[ski MRG]

71/67, with a refreshing breeze.

[Snow Bow]

78/68, a high of 82 (77 @ 2k), Yesterday 80, today 82, just searing heat, not sure how much longer I can suffer through this blazing hot weather. Everything has died for lack of rainfall. Tumbleweed blowing through the cracked pastures. I guess I shouldn't have doubted the calls for a torch summer.

Lol. Same here. Well has even gone dry. Have had to bring five gallon jugs into the city to fill them up at a friends house. Pool is half filled due to the mass evaporation that has been going on with all this heat. Don't know how much longer I can stand it. Worst torch ever!!!

[weathafella]

Felt alive though didn't ya.lol The stuff I do daily seems mundane but complacency can get you killed. I had my first real fall in a long time at work just over two weeks ago. I landed hard on a roof rafter with my chest/ribs just below my heart. It broke my fall but probably broke a rib or two. It's been an exceedingly painful injury and is only now improving. Since having a child almost 6 years ago I've had to radically curtail my thrill seeking but the one thing I will never be able to voluntarily give up is skiing. I hear the siren call of AK everyday. What glacier?

We were climibing Mt Whitney, highest peak in the Continental USA. We did not prepare properly and I had a constant altitude headache above 10,000 ft. Once we hit 14k, it was like we had emphysema. Anyway, we were sitting on the glacer on the western slope when we started hiking down.....and realized we were marooned...a mile from the trial, and starting to slide. Somehow we summoned the will to make it back wtihout dying...lol...

[ski MRG]

Lol. Same here. Well has even gone dry. Have had to bring five gallon jugs into the city to fill them up at a friends house. Pool is half filled due to the mass evaporation that has been going on with all this heat. Don't know how much longer I can stand it. Worst torch ever!!!

Yup, I give up, what's worse is there are more 70's in the forecast. I just don't think I'll make it.

We were climibing Mt Whitney, highest peak in the Continental USA. We did not prepare properly and I had a constant altitude headache above 10,000 ft. Once we hit 14k, it was like we had emphysema. Anyway, we were sitting on the glacer on the western slope when we started hiking down.....and realized we were marooned...a mile from the trial, and starting to slide. Somehow we summoned the will to make it back wtihout dying...lol...

Easy to get in trouble above tree line. I try to stay in top shape for ski season just so I can go out and trek like a terminator at elevation. Nothing like getting high.

[Logan11]

I'm about 20 years younger than you Jerry and I don't do roofs. The last thing I need is big medical bills...being self employed.

Not a bad evening. The temperature is holding up at 72/62, but a decent breeze. The low was 62 and the high was 83 which can't be too far off normal..maybe a couple degrees above.

Nine days from what I call the 8:00/6:00 threshold...where sunset slips before 8:00 PM and sunrise pushes past 6:00 AM. That date tends to coincide with the first noticeable early hints of cooling.

In reality I lose the sun at 8:00 now behind a hill, but I guess that doesn't count.

I dunno....avoiding a trip to the roof of a very tall row house doesn't seem to leave much out. I'm older now. Risk taking is taker...and odds are longer with a 12 yo at home. My biggest risks now are tame be when I was your age and nearly slipped of a glacier at 14k ft.

[ineedsnow]

another month of heat which wont even be that bad with the lowering sun angle and shorter days!! Winter is on its way!

[Tropopause_Fold]

could actually be a bit "cool" thursday...especially for the eastern half of SNE. decent amount of low-level RH being modeled now and a fresh northeast wind. it's all relative of course, but maybe staying in the 70s?

in the fwiw category, srefs also dump a lot of water on SNE wed pm/night...which would also mean wed is rather chilly. not sure on that one as that could easily end up SW

[ineedsnow]

I cant wait for this!

Wednesday: A slight chance of showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

could actually be a bit "cool" thursday...especially for the eastern half of SNE. decent amount of low-level RH being modeled now and a fresh northeast wind. it's all relative of course, but maybe staying in the 70s?

in the fwiw category, srefs also dump a lot of water on SNE wed pm/night...which would also mean wed is rather chilly. not sure on that one as that could easily end up SW

[Ginx snewx]

could actually be a bit "cool" thursday...especially for the eastern half of SNE. decent amount of low-level RH being modeled now and a fresh northeast wind. it's all relative of course, but maybe staying in the 70s?

in the fwiw category, srefs also dump a lot of water on SNE wed pm/night...which would also mean wed is rather chilly. not sure on that one as that could easily end up SW

Coastal, big big surf incoming

[Logan11]

Emily has formed I see....

Coastal, big big surf incoming

[nzucker]

What do you think for next week up in NH?

Looks to me like a couple sticky days..storms..then a sunny dry day or 2..then repeat...

I was up in Rindge, NH today...beautiful day and a crisp, cool night up there at 1200'...

Just got back to Dobbs Ferry, much muggier here,. 68.3/68.

[ORH_wxman]

I was up in Rindge, NH today...beautiful day and a crisp, cool night up there at 1200'...

Just got back to Dobbs Ferry, much muggier here,. 68.3/68.

Not sure if you ever saw my response to you about Rindge since you didn't replay to it, but here it is again:

[nzucker]

Not sure if you ever saw my response to you about Rindge since you didn't replay to it, but here it is again:

http://www.americanw...post__p__847825

I saw your message, thanks so much....that's a big average. I could tell the area is snowy since there's a huge elevation loss going down towards I-91, which I took home, making it apparent that the town sits on a bit of a plateau. The birch/pine mix of the forest really gives you a good idea of the colder climate as well; forest mix is quite different from the coastal plain and even interior sections of the CT River Valley. Overall, I was really impressed with the landscape of the Monadnocks, had never been there before and the abundance of lakes and swamps is really quite striking. There were three ponds on the campus of the Hampshire Country School where I interviewed; it's located on 1700 acres of mostly preserved land.

I have a good shot at this job although I'm not sure the isolation is right for me. It's very different from Middlebury in that there's no major town in the area, and the dirt roads might make it difficult to get out with a small car in the winter. I would appreciation the preservation of snowpack and rugged mountain beauty, but I have to consider a lot of factors, and it's not a high salary either. That being said, I'd love to get into interior New England and experience a winter in a place that doesn't have the downsloping component like Middlebury. I'm sure I'd do really well in SW flow events and late-blooming Miller Bs, unless we get another Winter 09-10.

[ORH_wxman]

I saw your message, thanks so much....that's a big average. I could tell the area is snowy since there's a huge elevation loss going down towards I-91, which I took home, making it apparent that the town sits on a bit of a plateau. The birch/pine mix of the forest really gives you a good idea of the colder climate as well; forest mix is quite different from the coastal plain and even interior sections of the CT River Valley. Overall, I was really impressed with the landscape of the Monadnocks, had never been there before and the abundance of lakes and swamps is really quite striking. There were three ponds on the campus of the Hampshire Country School where I interviewed; it's located on 1700 acres of mostly preserved land.

I have a good shot at this job although I'm not sure the isolation is right for me. It's very different from Middlebury in that there's no major town in the area, and the dirt roads might make it difficult to get out with a small car in the winter. I would appreciation the preservation of snowpack and rugged mountain beauty, but I have to consider a lot of factors, and it's not a high salary either. That being said, I'd love to get into interior New England and experience a winter in a place that doesn't have the downsloping component like Middlebury. I'm sure I'd do really well in SW flow events and late-blooming Miller Bs, unless we get another Winter 09-10.

I found the school you applied to...I wont name it for obvious reasons, but its at about 1,260-1,275 feet of elevation. That is pretty much primo snow territory there and as good as it gets. If you can deal with the location for your personal life, then you will have an amazing climo for winter and you can actually turn the tables not only on most SNE posters...but even where I am at 900 feet in ORH county. That area gets smoked.

[nzucker]

I found the school you applied to...I wont name it for obvious reasons, but its at about 1,260-1,275 feet of elevation. That is pretty much primo snow territory there and as good as it gets. If you can deal with the location for your personal life, then you will have an amazing climo for winter and you can actually turn the tables not only on most SNE posters...but even where I am at 900 feet in ORH county. That area gets smoked.

Yes, I realize it's quite an awesome place for winter. I bet they saw a lot of snow in events like 2/3/11, 1/18/11, 1/28/09, 12/21/08, etc. 82" would be a great average, although Middlebury got over 70" every year I was there, and Dobbs Ferry has had 70" the past two winters. I think I'd be much more appreciate of the climo in Rindge if I hadn't watched my hometown get absolutely smoked in Winter 10-11 and Winter 09-10 (which probably sucked in southern NH with mixing on 2/24 and then rain in the 2/25 Snowicane). In an ordinary winter, the Monadnocks get smoked to a degree that could never occur on the coastal plain, but we've seen everything but typical patterns the last two years. I sometimes wonder if the coast's average is going up while the interior is going down...I've watched my house in the Poconos which averages 70-75" struggle to reach Dobbs Ferry's snowfall compared to when I was a kid and witnessed that area get smoked in 92-93 and 93-94.

I would love to turn the tables on everyone. I had one of the lowest average snowfalls in NNE when I lived in Middlebury, and I consistently post in the SNE forum now knowing that my 38" average in Dobbs Ferry probably makes me a bit of a laughingstock. It would be awesome to have consistent snow cover and chase that elusive 100" winter, something I've never seen before in my life. I do think Middlebury probably got around 100" in 10-11 but I was only on campus once, so it was bad timing that I graduated in May 2010 after a mediocre winter. It would be awesome to have a Nina/-QBO latitude winter in Rindge, probably break the century mark and brag a lot while the rest of the city dwellers cry.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, I realize it's quite an awesome place for winter. I bet they saw a lot of snow in events like 2/3/11, 1/18/11, 1/28/09, 12/21/08, etc. 82" would be a great average, although Middlebury got over 70" every year I was there, and Dobbs Ferry has had 70" the past two winters. I think I'd be much more appreciate of the climo in Rindge if I hadn't watched my hometown get absolutely smoked in Winter 10-11 and Winter 09-10 (which probably sucked in southern NH with mixing on 2/24 and then rain in the 2/25 Snowicane). In an ordinary winter, the Monadnocks get smoked to a degree that could never occur on the coastal plain, but we've seen everything but typical patterns the last two years. I sometimes wonder if the coast's average is going up while the interior is going down...I've watched my house in the Poconos which averages 70-75" struggle to reach Dobbs Ferry's snowfall compared to when I was a kid and witnessed that area get smoked in 92-93 and 93-94.

I would love to turn the tables on everyone. I had one of the lowest average snowfalls in NNE when I lived in Middlebury, and I consistently post in the SNE forum now knowing that my 38" average in Dobbs Ferry probably makes me a bit of a laughingstock. It would be awesome to have consistent snow cover and chase that elusive 100" winter, something I've never seen before in my life. I do think Middlebury probably got around 100" in 10-11 but I was only on campus once, so it was bad timing that I graduated in May 2010 after a mediocre winter. It would be awesome to have a Nina/-QBO latitude winter in Rindge, probably break the century mark and brag a lot while the rest of the city dwellers cry.

Trust me, the climo isn't really changing. Dobbs Ferry soon enough will have a 18-20" winter while Rindge gets 100" like in '07-'08. Also you are mistakingly comparing interior SNE to the interior of PA...the climo in interior SNE is sky-rocketing. ORH has averaged 77" this decade (and Rindge is probably like 85-90" or more). We stick out to the east compared to interior PA/NY State). Its been a prolific decade. That said, you cannot even remotely say that the climo is changing because of a good 3 years and then extend it to a good decade.

That's just silly. Climo always wins eventually. Climo doesn't all of the suddenly shift by 50%...if climo shifts, it might be like by 1-3" per year or something very subtle. Dobbs Ferry will still suck azz with under 40" per year while Rindge will be 80"+ no matter how you slice it. Maybe Dobbs Ferry (your BY, not coop at 250 feet) is now a 39" site instead of a 37.5" site, but its not all of the sudden a 50" site. Rindge isn;t all of the sudden a 90" site either, its probably a still a 81" site...maybe climo has made them an 82-83" site.

Its completely useless to try and claim a huge shift has occurred because that has never happened in recorded history.

[ORH_wxman]

That said, you have to do what is right for you. You have to remember that 20k per year is actually a pretty good wage if you are getting housing paid for and meals? Meals are a bit less but if they are paid for too (at least some of them), then that is still big. Housing is a HUGE asset though. If you make 20k per year with no housing costs, that is the equivalent of getting about 30-33k per year if you don;t have to pay for heat and electric. So remember that.

[nzucker]

Trust me, the climo isn't really changing. Dobbs Ferry soon enough will have a 18-20" winter while Rindge gets 100" like in '07-'08. Also you are mistakingly comparing interior SNE to the interior of PA...the climo in interior SNE is sky-rocketing. ORH has averaged 77" this decade (and Rindge is probably like 85-90" or more). We stick out to the east compared to interior PA/NY State). Its been a prolific decade. That said, you cannot even remotely say that the climo is changing because of a good 3 years and then extend it to a good decade.

That's just silly. Climo always wins eventually. Climo doesn't all of the suddenly shift by 50%...if climo shifts, it might be like by 1-3" per year or something very subtle. Dobbs Ferry will still suck azz with under 40" per year while Rindge will be 80"+ no matter how you slice it. Maybe Dobbs Ferry (your BY, not coop at 250 feet) is now a 39" site instead of a 37.5" site, but its not all of the sudden a 50" site. Rindge isn;t all of the sudden a 90" site either, its probably a still a 81" site...maybe climo has made them an 82-83" site.

Its completely useless to try and claim a huge shift has occurred because that has never happened in recorded history.

Obviously Rindge NH is going to get more snow than Dobbs Ferry NY over the long-term, but I wouldn't say the last three years of blocking can't tell us some things. Did they really get 100" in 07-08? Midd only had low 80s probably, and they have much more latitude...I remember that as being a latitudinal gradient that started getting prolific north of Albany. I was in POU that year and we got royally shafted, but southern NH isn't that much further north so I doubt they would have had 100". I guess there was a SW-NE gradient too with the +NAO/Hudson Bay vortex allowing cold to bleed east, but still....

I would think though that an extreme -NAO would shift climo towards the coast. West-based NAO blocks can get pretty dry as you get further north....I guess there are always exceptions though like 68-69 which was probably a big winter for Rindge. Do you know how much the Monadnocks got that year? Are there are reliable co-ops nearby? I do think the strong/extreme -NAO is trying to bring us more Nor'easters that jackpot DCA-NYC; not to say those regions will regularly rival interior SNE like 09-10 or 10-11, but the differential should decrease. Overall though, since 02-03, it's NYC that has had the highest snowfall anomaly of all the major eastern cities. I would love to live at some elevation in the interior Hudson Valley, have always thought about moving north to some of the hilltowns in the Hudson Highlands though certainly they wouldn't average as much as this boarding school. As you say, this is a pretty ideal place. And with all the pines, they probably retain their snow well at 1300'...not going to see a ton of bare ground until you descend to the CT River Valley approaching the VT/NH border. I was driving back on 119 W to 10 S, saw that rapid elevation drop-off, must be a steep snowfall gradient there.

[nzucker]

That said, you have to do what is right for you. You have to remember that 20k per year is actually a pretty good wage if you are getting housing paid for and meals? Meals are a bit less but if they are paid for too (at least some of them), then that is still big. Housing is a HUGE asset though. If you make 20k per year with no housing costs, that is the equivalent of getting about 30-33k per year if you don;t have to pay for heat and electric. So remember that.

Yes, everything would be included so it's worth over 30k. It's not a bad package...good apartments, all meals provided, all electricity/Internet taken care of.

I would take a lot of the 20k home, which is a nice thought. And it's a pretty cool place to work overall. I will probably try to get it.

[ORH_wxman]

Obviously Rindge NH is going to get more snow than Dobbs Ferry NY over the long-term, but I wouldn't say the last three years of blocking can't tell us some things. Did they really get 100" in 07-08? Midd only had low 80s probably, and they have much more latitude...I remember that as being a latitudinal gradient that started getting prolific north of Albany. I was in POU that year and we got royally shafted, but southern NH isn't that much further north so I doubt they would have had 100". I guess there was a SW-NE gradient too with the +NAO/Hudson Bay vortex allowing cold to bleed east, but still....

I would think though that an extreme -NAO would shift climo towards the coast. West-based NAO blocks can get pretty dry as you get further north....I guess there are always exceptions though like 68-69 which was probably a big winter for Rindge. Do you know how much the Monadnocks got that year? Are there are reliable co-ops nearby? I do think the strong/extreme -NAO is trying to bring us more Nor'easters that jackpot DCA-NYC; not to say those regions will regularly rival interior SNE like 09-10 or 10-11, but the differential should decrease. Overall though, since 02-03, it's NYC that has had the highest snowfall anomaly of all the major eastern cities. I would love to live at some elevation in the interior Hudson Valley, have always thought about moving north to some of the hilltowns in the Hudson Highlands though certainly they wouldn't average as much as this boarding school. As you say, this is a pretty ideal place. And with all the pines, they probably retain their snow well at 1300'...not going to see a ton of bare ground until you descend to the CT River Valley approaching the VT/NH border. I was driving back on 119 W to 10 S, saw that rapid elevation drop-off, must be a steep snowfall gradient there.

Here is '07-'08 map:

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, everything would be included so it's worth over 30k. It's not a bad package...good apartments, all meals provided, all electricity/Internet taken care of.

I would take a lot of the 20k home, which is a nice thought. And it's a pretty cool place to work overall. I will probably try to get it.

That's a sweet package Nate. That is like 36k nothing included for some other job. You';ll take home a ton of that money. Its up to you if you think you want to handle that type of social life which is isolated....but you have no idea how the work environment is with meeting people. So that can change things. You can be in a rural area, but also be in a work environment that has a lot of other people too. You'll have to gauge that if you get an offer.

Its a situation you can only gauge and nobody else. But in terms of money, that is pretty good for a starting job. You are getting all your living expenses paid for plus 20k.

[nzucker]

Where is the 101.5" from? Is that anywhere near Rindge? It looks as if the higher amounts clustered over the Monadnocks? Elevation dominance there?

It sucks that Dobbs only got 20" that year...I was living at like 300' outside of Poughkeepsie, we mixed in every storm except for the early December and late Feb events, brutal. I remember watching Weather Channel radar, and the mix line was always around Kingston NY. Kingston, around Exit 20 on I-87, probably was the average line that winter. We had around 30" on campus, whereas I'd guess the average is around 42-43"...Not a flake fell in March, I remember Andrew/skier calling me after one storm and being shocked that POU hadn't seen anything. I went up to Middlebury in January after the huge torch, no snow pack to 2500' in the Greens, total wipeout...skier and I were going to snowshoe but we ended up sitting by the fire in 45F weather in mid-January, barely seeing frozen water on our walk home to the dorms at 3am. Did go back in March, and the higher elevations of the Green Mountains had nearly 6' on the ground, just a huge snowpack once you got into the upper reaches near Camel's Hump and Mansfield.